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Pattern The Great December Dump

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This could trend colder. And better as we get closer. This one is worth watching for sure as the Canadian had it suppressed. A lot of changes will take place if we can keep it around the gulf coast I like the potential.


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Jessy89 said:
eb1823dc3e858e668eb54eb129954c11.jpg


This could trend colder. And better as we get closer. This one is worth watching for sure as the Canadian had it suppressed. A lot of changes will take place if we can keep it around the gulf coast I like the potential.


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50/50 low is not in the right place. If we get it to head into the right location, that would be a nice storm. Lots of time to trend better.
 
WxWatch said:
The timing of that 50/50 low and a S/W would need to be just right. If a deep 50/50 low comes into places first, a storm system would likely not form. Perhaps one would form after the 50/50 low kicks out, but then it would probably warm ahead of a S/W. A 50/50 can mean a significant east coast snow storm (SECS) but there's no guarantee. If an SECS occurs, bombogenesis can occur far south as the Mid-Atlanic. I have a feeling that time frame is right for something to possibly occur as well. I haven't seen enough consistency for my liking - consistency is your friend. The pattern does though look like something good could happen for that time though.

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A 50/50 low is always good for us in the SE. it doesn’t keep a storm from forming. It also acts like a -NAO to keep the storm track south.
 
packfan98 said:
A 50/50 low is always good for us in the SE. it doesn’t keep a storm from forming. It also acts like a -NAO to keep the storm track south.
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A 50/50 low can be good for us, but not always. It can shear out short waves in the southern stream (preventing a storm system to form) or even suppress system's too far south. Yes, a 50/50 low does enhance a -NAO.

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Funny how the GEFS went way down with the Mean again
12z
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18z
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I think that is because of the lack of a 50/50 low with the right timing
12z
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18z
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Ollie Williams said:
50/50 low is not in the right place. If we get it to head into the right location, that would be a nice storm. Lots of time to trend better.
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lol it’ll probably trend worse just based on how hard it is to get snow around here. Have heard this sentiment before. *Hopefully I jinxed it.* Would like to see what @Webberweather53 thinks about it.
 
17th still possible snowstorm?
 
This takes us thru about Dec 20th... Dare I say, there's a very small chance we end up below normal this Dec given many areas will only be 1-1.5C above with about 10 days to go in the month?

This analysis + 7 day forecast anomaly map certainly looks a lot better than it did a few days ago.
ANOM2m_fcstMTH_ntham (3).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This takes us thru about Dec 20th... Dare I say, there's a very small chance we end up below normal this Dec given many areas will only be 1-1.5C above with about 10 days to go in the month?

This analysis + 7 day forecast anomaly map certainly looks a lot better than it did a few days ago.
View attachment 27904
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Two below average months back to back ... stop teasing us Webber! It can’t be true..... ?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Am I wrong to be skeptical of a -NAO? Last year we had it inside 10 days on the GEFS and EPS and it still failed to materialize. I'll believe it when it actaully dives negative and has staying power there.
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Yes. It is coming this year.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This takes us thru about Dec 20th... Dare I say, there's a very small chance we end up below normal this Dec given many areas will only be 1-1.5C above with about 10 days to go in the month?

This analysis + 7 day forecast anomaly map certainly looks a lot better than it did a few days ago.
View attachment 27904
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Yep and the core of the cold isn’t until the 18th-23rd...We should end up near normal or BN, wouldn’t be surprised at all given current LR modeling.


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Jon said:
Yep and the core of the cold isn’t until the 18th-23rd...We should end up near normal or BN, wouldn’t be surprised at all given current LR modeling.


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Yeah it looks cold thru at least Christmas Eve or so but we'll see.

The EPS is still having trouble beyond day 7.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_fh192_trend (2).gif
 
For amateurs like me, who don't know all meteorological references to weather systems, I had to do some research on the "50/50 low". What I found is that this is an area of low pressure that forms near 50 degrees North, 50 degrees West, so the name makes sense. It's near Newfoundland, Canada. It seems this weather system has bigger impacts on the east coast versus the Gulf coastal regions, so maybe that's why this is the first time I've encountered the term. Just thought I'd put it here to clear up terms in the discussion for anybody wondering.
 
Some thoughts about the 21st/22nd system. The GFS has been consistent showing a weather system around the 21st/22nd time window. Would it be a rain storm? Snow storm? Rain changing to snow scenario? It's still too early to determine that right now, however, I'm not going to write off that this system could possibly bring snow for the southeastern US.

First things first, I've been thinking about what track will the low take? This will depend on the evolution of a ridge to the west. Which, this ridge will depend on a trough up stream over the eastern Pacific Ocean. If this trough over the eastern Pacific ocean digs down deeper, this would result a stepper ridge down stream. If that were to occur, the track of low would be further south, pushed further down into the Gulf. So far what I'm seeing on both GEFS and EPS (at the time of this update) this storm system would most likely be a Miller-A due to the upper air pattern and a 50/50 low, which we'll take a look at that 50/50 low later on this post.

LowTracks.jpg

If you take a look at the image below, you can see the trough over the eastern Pacific Ocean, again, this trough will play a roll of the evolution of the ridge over the Rockies. You can also see a positive tilt trough over the Gulf coast/lower Mississippi River, that is of course the developing storm system that could possibly bring snow for the southeastern US during the 21st/22nd time period. I'm also liking the high latitude blocking (-NAO) which high latitude blocking would mean that this storm system would have amplification as the storm system gains latitude.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_36.png

Another thing that has came to my mind, will it be cold enough to support snowfall acorss the southeastern US during the 21st/22nd time period? Right now, it's still too early to determine that, but lets take a look at the 500mb(vort) from the GEFS. The 50/50 low will play a factor on the cold air as well as the track of low. Of course, with a more northern track of low, warmer air would be at play. If a more southern track, this would allow colder air to progress further south and east. If a 50/50 low isn't going to be in place, deeper cold air probably won't make it further down into the southeastern US.

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_34.png

Overview: As of now, places acorss, KY/TN, the mountains and NC/WV/VA may get some snow out of this system. Of course, a much larger portion of the southeastern US could get snowfall out of this system as well if the things line up right of what I mentioned above. If that ridge becomes taller, this would push the development of low further down into the Gulf, and if that were to occur, colder air would be at play much further south. So, those are some of the things that I would be watching out for, the evolution of the trough over the eastern Pacific ocean, the ridge and the 50/50 low. We'll see how things evolve over the coming days. Of course, I will have further in depth updates.
 
0Z GEFS: what on the Almighty's green earth happened to the beautiful +PNA 12/20+? I'll tell you what, when the GEFS decides to give up the ghost, it doesn't fool around!
 
The 00z GEFS has very little snow in the SE. Many huge NE blizzards though.

Right now it’s between the north US modeling or the Suppressed Euro.
 
We all should take a step back and realize this is 10 days away... nothing that has ever been modeled 10 days away has happened that way and usually is completely different. The signal is there for a storm and that’s all the info we can grab as of right now ... let’s wait until about 5 days out and then we can truly see from modeling how everything appears to be shaping up .. we won’t know until then
 
WxWatch said:
Some thoughts about the 21st/22nd system. The GFS has been consistent showing a weather system around the 21st/22nd time window. Would it be a rain storm? Snow storm? Rain changing to snow scenario? It's still too early to determine that right now, however, I'm not going to write off that this system could possibly bring snow for the southeastern US.

First things first, I've been thinking about what track will the low take? This will depend on the evolution of a ridge to the west. Which, this ridge will depend on a trough up stream over the eastern Pacific Ocean. If this trough over the eastern Pacific ocean digs down deeper, this would result a stepper ridge down stream. If that were to occur, the track of low would be further south, pushed further down into the Gulf. So far what I'm seeing on both GEFS and EPS (at the time of this update) this storm system would most likely be a Miller-A due to the upper air pattern and a 50/50 low, which we'll take a look at that 50/50 low later on this post.

View attachment 27924

If you take a look at the image below, you can see the trough over the eastern Pacific Ocean, again, this trough will play a roll of the evolution of the ridge over the Rockies. You can also see a positive tilt trough over the Gulf coast/lower Mississippi River, that is of course the developing storm system that could possibly bring snow for the southeastern US during the 21st/22nd time period. I'm also liking the high latitude blocking (-NAO) which high latitude blocking would mean that this storm system would have amplification as the storm system gains latitude.

View attachment 27925

Another thing that has came to my mind, will it be cold enough to support snowfall acorss the southeastern US during the 21st/22nd time period? Right now, it's still too early to determine that, but lets take a look at the 500mb(vort) from the GEFS. The 50/50 low will play a factor on the cold air as well as the track of low. Of course, with a more northern track of low, warmer air would be at play. If a more southern track, this would allow colder air to progress further south and east. If a 50/50 low isn't going to be in place, deeper cold air probably won't make it further down into the southeastern US.

View attachment 27926

Overview: As of now, places acorss, KY/TN, the mountains and NC/WV/VA may get some snow out of this system. Of course, a much larger portion of the southeastern US could get snowfall out of this system as well if the things line up right of what I mentioned above. If that ridge becomes taller, this would push the development of low further down into the Gulf, and if that were to occur, colder air would be at play much further south. So, those are some of the things that I would be watching out for, the evolution of the trough over the eastern Pacific ocean, the ridge and the 50/50 low. We'll see how things evolve over the coming days. Of course, I will have further in depth updates.
Click to expand...
The 6z GFS says I’ll take track number 4, right up the Apps!
 
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