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Pattern The Great December Dump

A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.jpg
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


gfs_uv250_us_35.jpg
 
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855

Would this bring snow outside the mountains?


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A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
I seriously doubt any potential of any snow from this time frame. Not only is that jet stream cherry picked in the ideal position from one run, it's from the GFS and the GFS has a heavy tenancy to be too progressive and cold. Realistically, this will either become a cutter due to the introduction of the SER or it'll be too positive to produce. The latter is most likely.
 
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
I get what you are saying except for the "deep cold air in place" part....... 850's are above freezing and the surface is near 50 degrees at that time...... For those of us east of the mountains, it looks like just a frontal passage. What areas are you targeting?
 
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
This guys is the best... one second I’m reading thinking all hope is doomed then I hit one of ur posts and I’m about damn sure we’re about to get a snow storm... for real tho I love ur analysis and constant updates ... it keeps me alive in this thread sometimes
 
I went outside today without protection for my ears from the wind, that was a mistake as it was so windy and dry that my ears began to hurt from it.

The air temp wasn't that cold though this afternoon.
 
I get what you are saying except for the "deep cold air in place" part....... 850's are above freezing and the surface is near 50 degrees at that time...... For those of us east of the mountains, it looks like just a frontal passage. What areas are you targeting?
At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.

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I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.

Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.
“ I’ve scored off of that look 100 times!” ☃️
 
At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.

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If the temps aren't remotely close why even bother looking at it? If it was in the 30s then maybe but 50s can't change easily without uprooting the entire pattern modeled.
 
Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB
 
So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
 
So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
He’s been a bit under the weather lately, really!
 
Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB
Robert has really went downhill lately. Can’t believe he posted that over inflated snow map for the mountain event that just occurred on his FB. And he says things like 6-8 warm weeks are not likely....umm idk about most of y’all but I’ve never seen that long of a heat wave in the winter here. He needs money badly.
 
Maybe someone on here with more knowledge than me can answer this, but when was the last time that the southeast ridge has been held in check this long. It seems like it hasn’t been as big a player in the overall pattern for the last month and I don’t recall anytime over the last few years that could be said. It’s shown up on some ensemble runs around the 10-12 day period but goes away closer to verification
 
A reminder that parts of Alabama got a foot of snow in December two years ago, while the month as a whole may not be cold & stormy or have a perfect pattern, it only takes one instance of all the ingredients mixing together for someone to score.
 
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