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Pattern The Great December Dump

LovingGulfLows said:
I don't agree. This forum was specifically made for the South since basically every other weather forum caters to the NE/Midwest regions(which get a lot more snow).

Actually, a thread might be fine, but definitely not it's own forum.
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Yeah I really don't know how that would work. We don't have too many people from outside the SE here, but if there ever was more interest then there could be some discussion about such. A thread for now is about the most it could be.
 
What i meant was having a thread for southerners to discuss weather in other parts of the country. Im sure some southerners follow noreasters or tornado outbreaks in the plains. Lets face it, sometimes weather in the SE gets boring and its fun to track weather in other areas during down times. The thread could be called "US Weather" or something like that.
 
Not that far off from a fantasy run. Just need more consolidated energy .
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Interesting run of the gfs, (and it’s not hour 300+) but after that one system that passes through with strong CAA, you get some southern stream energy and some NS energy, which get close to phasing, but you would want that northern stream energy to go - tilt quicker and earlier and slow that SS energy just a tad, but this was definitely close to a interesting run, Ik honestly all in on this period I’m mean why not DC1B5EBA-815E-4215-889E-D3FFEB1CF50F.jpeg62362C89-98DD-44A9-8F6A-F2E12F182BF2.jpegD8B45AA9-59F5-4C28-9935-98D067015433.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Interesting run of the gfs, (and it’s not hour 300+) but after that one system that passes through with strong CAA, you get some southern stream energy and some NS energy, which get close to phasing, but you would want that northern stream energy to go - tilt quicker and earlier and slow that SS energy just a tad, but this was definitely close to a interesting run, Ik honestly all in on this period I’m mean why not View attachment 26435View attachment 26436View attachment 26437
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Hmm...
The GEFS actually seems interesting around that timeframe. No major modeling but still.
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My take based on model consensus as well as indices like AO/NAO is that we’re looking at a cold 1st week in Dec likely followed by a normal to possibly mild 2nd week. The 2nd week in Dec is still a long ways off and so that is much more up in the air. But if so, it wouldn’t be surprising as it is normal for wx to shift from week to week and El Niño’s are often mild in Dec. If that occurs, hopefully the NAO/AO would then shift back to negative and give us a chilly 3rd week in Dec. Or if not that soon, perhaps we can get a chilly end of Dec. A Dec averaging near normal would be a huge victory for those liking cold.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah I really don't know how that would work. We don't have too many people from outside the SE here, but if there ever was more interest then there could be some discussion about such. A thread for now is about the most it could be.
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ForsythSnow, is this the December Thread? Just curious. ?
 
snowcool776 said:
ForsythSnow, is this the December Thread? Just curious. ?
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1. Cool, this is the official Dec thread.
2. The 12Z EPS is pretty consistent with earlier runs and has a nice dump of Arctic followed by a cold reinforcement right afterward. This results in a cold period 12/2-6. Afterward, it warms and gets to warmer than normal 12/9.
 
GaWx said:
1. Cool, this is the official Dec thread.
2. The 12Z EPS is pretty consistent with earlier runs and has a nice dump of Arctic followed by a cold reinforcement right afterward. This results in a cold period 12/2-6. Afterward, it warms and gets to warmer than normal 12/9.
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Alright, just making sure. Thought Nippy November was the thread for November.
 
snowcool776 said:
Alright, just making sure. Thought Nippy November was the thread for November.
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Once models get into December and our discussion is about December related things, we start the thread. Though things like rain totals today and tomorrow's discussion go into the November thread.
 
GaWx said:
1. Cool, this is the official Dec thread.
2. The 12Z EPS is pretty consistent with earlier runs and has a nice dump of Arctic followed by a cold reinforcement right afterward. This results in a cold period 12/2-6. Afterward, it warms and gets to warmer than normal 12/9.
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I don’t believe I’ve seen a year like this before where the torch keeps being pushed back.
 
Arcc said:
I don’t believe I’ve seen a year like this before where the torch keeps being pushed back.
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I think it’s more that the ridging doesn’t have staying power. You can look at the 11/29 ridge and see it’s very alive and wasn’t pushed back, but it’s not a torch unless it sticks...and it’s gone about as fast as it showed up.

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I welcome torches in the long range if they end up being a 3-4 day event followed by cold and stormy.
 
Jon said:
I think it’s more that the ridging doesn’t have staying power. You can look at the 11/29 ridge and see it’s very alive and wasn’t pushed back, but it’s not a torch unless it sticks...and it’s gone about as fast as it showed up.

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I welcome torches in the long range if they end up being a 3-4 day event followed by cold and stormy.
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Why does the cold/anomaly’s, seem so much colder in the west, as pictured above?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Why does the cold/anomaly’s, seem so much colder in the west, as pictured above?
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Altitude probably has something to do with it and the tendency of stronger high pressure systems in the west than the east. Usually they have to traverse to the east and get weaker unless it’s a PV “lobe” drop over the Great Lakes.

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I have a question for someone. Why is the ao forecast to go so positive? That's not good if that happens. Is it at all related to the SSW underway?
 
Golf7575 said:
I have a question for someone. Why is the ao forecast to go so positive? That's not good if that happens. Is it at all related to the SSW underway?
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It isn’t typically good for the SE US cold prospects but it may be good for colder Arctic prospects. It will be interesting to see how much the Arctic will cool over the next 10-14 days. It hasn’t been colder than normal during Sep-Dec since 2014!
 
GaWx said:
It isn’t typically good for the SE US cold prospects but it may be good for colder Arctic prospects. It will be interesting to see how much the Arctic will cool over the next 10-14 days. It hasn’t been colder than normal during Sep-Dec since 2014!
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If its related to 2014, we didnt get cold again until very end of January but all hell broke loose in February early March. Just interesting.
 
WxWatch said:
It can keep being pushed back, I think a lot can agree with that.
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I took another look at our MJO development. I would think that we go into phase 2 and 3 around the 10th or 15th potentially stalling until Christmas earlier/later. It’s uncertain what happens after that, whether it goes into the warm phases or stays with no affect is beyond me. Unfortunately MJO looks similar to last year, just slower and I would think we will get much weaker energy in the warm phases.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I took another look at our MJO development. I would think that we go into phase 2 and 3 around the 10th or 15th potentially stalling until Christmas earlier/later. It’s uncertain what happens after that, whether it goes into the warm phases or stays with no affect is beyond me. Unfortunately MJO looks similar to last year, just slower and I would think we will get much weaker energy in the warm phases.
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I think it would be good to see the mjo move fairly quick through the warmer phases.
 
Usual disclaimers about a 10-day out deterministic model, etc etc, it's still nice to see solutions that are close to something special for us

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All the models this evening seem to be converging to a general theme in the medium to long range ... strong storm system after the thanksgiving storm that ejects East weakens while an upper level deep cold lobe swings around it setting the stage for a piece of energy coming in for our storm threat first week of December ... timing obviously an issue this far out but the models are very close to something big and I like our odds
 
KyloG said:
Hope

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That’s arguably one of the worst tropospheric patterns you can be dealt if you want to weaken the tropospheric polar vortex, however considering we’ve done well without a significant -AO in prior instances we might be alright. There was a sswe in Dec 1987 that failed to weaken the vortex and actually resulted in a stronger +NAM/AO thereafter leading into that historic Jan 1988 event
 
Webberweather53 said:
That’s arguably one of the worst tropospheric patterns you can be dealt if you want to weaken the tropospheric polar vortex, however considering we’ve done well without a significant -AO in prior instances we might be alright. There was a sswe in Dec 1987 that failed to weaken the vortex and actually resulted in a stronger +NAM/AO thereafter leading into that historic Jan 1988 event
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A similar evolution was also observed in 1972-73 when a SSWE in early Jan completely fell on its face and the AO became even more positive following it.
Moral of the story: Even in cases where a SSWE fails miserably and actually leads to an even stronger +AO, it doesn’t necessarily mean the end of the world around here, esp since 2 of arguably the most infamous winter storms for many on this board (Jan 88 & Feb 73) occurred in part as a result of an utter failure by a SSWE.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That’s arguably one of the worst tropospheric patterns you can be dealt if you want to weaken the tropospheric polar vortex, however considering we’ve done well without a significant -AO in prior instances we might be alright. There was a sswe in Dec 1987 that failed to weaken the vortex and actually resulted in a stronger +NAM/AO thereafter leading into that historic Jan 1988 event
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It’s better than this? I know it’s naive to say the SSWE rarely helps our sensible weather but 2014 and 2010 seem like the only winters where it helped in recent memory.

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