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snowcool776
Guest
Shane, do you think that this will be a major ice storm for Central NC?
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah the good thing is we don’t need -30f anoms to get snow in December
i was just about to post this. Parts of SE Canada are almost 50 degrees warmer than 6 hours ago ?It’s pointless to watch the OP runs 12z vs 06z
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Nice plunge of arctic here again day 8-9. Also has a reinforcing cold shot you see here coming down from Canada. Those back to back cold shots always pique my interest and can dig up storms. Need the trough further west and could be on to something.
i see cutters in our near future
It’s pointless to watch the OP runs 12z vs 06z
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However, the good news is that the much less unreliable 11-15 12Z GEFS (vs the GFS op) retains its much colder than normal 2m temps. The 0Z EPS 11-15 is also colder than normal though not MB. My best guess? B but not MB. MB could still occur but is a riskier bet due to cold b.....never mind.....for a reason I won't get into now but also getting MB averaged out over a 5 day period is much less common than B per history. Getting a 5 day period averaging B with a couple of days of MB within is more common. Beside, the EPS has been the gold standard of late. If the EPS were to show MB, I'd likely go with MB.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Roaring subtropical jet coupled w/ a deep SE Canada/Lakes vortex.
Verbatim, this is a great planetary-scale pattern to make it 3 years in row w/ snow in early Dec in the SE US.
Verbatim, this is a great planetary-scale pattern to make it 3 years in row w/ snow in early Dec in the SE US.
I’ve been waiting to be avenged from the terrible sleet snow line attack on Charlotte last year ... maybe we can pull something off this year ??
One has to admit all that snow cover in the norther US and Canada is really going to help any cold air masses make there way down as far as possible and as easy as possible .. would help for our wintry mix
No not right now. The pattern gets my attention but at d7+ its nothing more than a talking point
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I don’t have maps but the euro looks colder for the southeast this run
12z Euro is Glory and look like the cold will be reinforce after Day 10.
pcbjr
Member
Me and Mack win today. Next
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If you adjust the anomalies for increasing dispersion w/ range, the 12z EPS suggests the 12z ECMWF was not an outlier in showing a massive cold shot ~day 10.
Not to mention we once again see evidence of a very strong subtropical jet axis crashing into southern California as was the case w/ the GEFS.
All we can say at this point is we might find ourselves with a few of the very basic ingredients to produce wintry weather in the SE US in early Dec... for the 3rd year in a row potentially.
Not to mention we once again see evidence of a very strong subtropical jet axis crashing into southern California as was the case w/ the GEFS.
All we can say at this point is we might find ourselves with a few of the very basic ingredients to produce wintry weather in the SE US in early Dec... for the 3rd year in a row potentially.
pcbjr
Member
Webb,
All things truly considered, do we really want history to repeat itself?
Phil
PS - I'd rather you be playing driveway hockey in January ...
... which is where my money is ... 
Just incredible how it keeps unfolding like that for that 6th - 10th December time period consistently. I’m betting we will begin to see a storm signal pop up more and more in the coming days for that period.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Now if only it was Columbia & Charlotte's turn to get hammered this time...
Agree, we’ve been waiting a long time down here man. Feb 2014 was the last major one.
Any previous CAE to CLT Dec events?
NoSnowATL
Member
i think 2011 we got a decent snow on dec 26th
Cadi40
Member
Last year it was Raleigh that got hammered with it’s December snow, this year it’s Charlotte’s turn.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As far as I can tell, even in cases where both CAE & CLT get snow in Dec, at least one gets screwed over relative to the other. When CAE scores big, so does areas like KFAY & the I-95 corridor of NC for ex w/ the heaviest snow staying well SE of Charlotte.
I think this event in late Dec 1935 is the closest we've ever gotten to seeing both CAE & CLT getting cored by the same storm in Dec.
@Tarheel1 you wanna get this one?
It was 2010, we picked up about 1-3 inches in and around the Columbia area on Dec 26th. Two weeks later into 2011 we got a big one though.
Even though it wasn’t December, I always consider Feb 2010 as a good benchmark perfect track for the CAE area for snow. We were the jackpot spot in that storm, got 8.6 inches.
yea that was a great one! I was just 20 miles north in blythwood at the time and got right at 11 inches
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I’m busy jackpotting!! ???????
Approaching 2” now! Overperformer!
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snowcool776
Guest
So, is this Mack, @Rain Cold?
Jackpotting those emojis tho!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Shhhhhhh!
18z GFS doesn't really bring any snow to the SE but that snow cover is very encouraging
pcbjr
Member
ain't no cure for the wintertime blues ...18z GFS doesn't really bring any snow to the SE but that snow cover is very encouraging
excepting once again, some God forsaken spot in central Mexico
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Even if just half of the places on the map receives that accumulation, it will help the cold air advection in the SE.18z GFS doesn't really bring any snow to the SE but that snow cover is very encouraging
pcbjr
Member
too rational of a thought ...
yep I remember the big one. They called us to plow in Columbia, Greenville Spartanburgh and Greer