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Pattern The Great December Dump

It looks good but the issue will be if it’s cold enough to see snow and not cold rain. Looks like cold rain at this point. I also saw on TT the SW flow out of the GOM on the backside which brings up the temperature as the moisture moves in.


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Rain Cold said:
Thanks! We're too far south for snow in either of those, but I'd take either pattern over some of our famous December patterns of late.
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You could make a case on either plot that if something got timed right we could get something. Setup gives me the decaying cold air mass before a storm, snow to mix to rain vibes if the timing is perfect. I'm more impressed by the eps with highs in the 40s starting 12/3 through the end of the run.

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SD said:
You could make a case on either plot that if something got timed right we could get something. Setup gives me the decaying cold air mass before a storm, snow to mix to rain vibes if the timing is perfect. I'm more impressed by the eps with highs in the 40s starting 12/3 through the end of the run.

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Definitely agree here. In the heart of winter, I'd probably feel more bullish, if we were staring down the barrel of that pattern, although the window would still probably be rather narrow for an all-frozen event, as cold shots would likely be transient. I feel like we will get into a couple of stable regimes this winter where blocking sets up so that cold air delivery will be a bit more stable, as highs to the north slow their rapid trek east. That, coupled with bouts of an active STJ should provide a few legit board-wide opportunities.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like the overdone November blast
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Probably will be. I remember hearing about a cold bias with that model? Jk! But yeah, it's likely pressing too far here. Hopefully, the general pattern is correct. If that's the case, we should be below normal.
 
Rain Cold said:
Definitely agree here. In the heart of winter, I'd probably feel more bullish, if we were staring down the barrel of that pattern, although the window would still probably be rather narrow for an all-frozen event, as cold shots would likely be transient. I feel like we will get into a couple of stable regimes this winter where blocking sets up so that cold air delivery will be a bit more stable, as highs to the north slow their rapid trek east. That, coupled with bouts of an active STJ should provide a few legit board-wide opportunities.
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Also and correct me if I’m wrong, that type of pattern would surely help build snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast which would only be better for solidifying cold air masses the further we go into December and into January. It just seems that we’ve gone into the last few Januarys with virtually no snowpack south of northern New England and the Great Lakes and it’s caused a number of cold shots to be way too modified to help us out
 
Chazwin said:
Also and correct me if I’m wrong, that type of pattern would surely help build snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast which would only be better for solidifying cold air masses the further we go into December and into January. It just seems that we’ve gone into the last few Januarys with virtually no snowpack south of northern New England and the Great Lakes and it’s caused a number of cold shots to be way too modified to help us out
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Yeap you don’t need an extreme dump with a good snowpack for it to make it as far south.


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It’s pointless to watch the OP runs 12z vs 06z

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