Until the Nina torch kicks in and warms the entire North American continent up into the 70s (with the exception of Mexico which, of course, will receive abundant snowfall, as usual).
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
To my untrained eye the 18z GEFS was not terrible but noticeably less impressive out in la la land compared to the last few runs
I'm betting as well, my confidence is increasing that there could be a winter storm that time frame (possibly earlier) snow or an ice storm, or a mixture of both with one system.
Golf7575
Member
Wxwatch, is this a southern slider pattern moving forward?
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks like the NE might see the 1st true snowy Nor Easter. That looks impressive at the end of the run on TT.
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all Depends on the position of that Canada/gl vortex, the farther south, the lower/more suppressed storm track, and the more north the Vortex is, that increases the chance of a miller B setup, unfortunately it’s most likely either sheared n suppressed crap or a miller B setup, but it doesn’t look bad for overrunning either
Absolutely not.
Yep, unfortunately we need a -NAO to increase chances of that
Golf7575
Member
I guess we still have a ways to go? I am further nw, but it may not make a difference im assuming ??
This feature is very interesting and I have never seen anything like this. A upper level low veers and comes on the back side of a storm system that's on the Northeastern coast. The core of the upper level low is very cold, a minimum of 516/522 thickness value. 850 temps low as -15c (5f)
With 850mb temps being that cold, there would be snow growth. So, this ULL can bring flurries and snow showers for a good portion of the southeastern states. If there would be an increase of moisture associated with this ULL, this thing would bring considerable amounts of snow. Right now, the GFS is showing that the moisture would be minimal with this ULL feature. I'm not sure why the moisture content is minimal, perhaps it's due to the very dry air that would be in place.
With 850mb temps being that cold, there would be snow growth. So, this ULL can bring flurries and snow showers for a good portion of the southeastern states. If there would be an increase of moisture associated with this ULL, this thing would bring considerable amounts of snow. Right now, the GFS is showing that the moisture would be minimal with this ULL feature. I'm not sure why the moisture content is minimal, perhaps it's due to the very dry air that would be in place.
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I'm guessing you won't see anything like this outside of model fantasyland.This feature is very interesting and I have never seen anything like this. A upper level low veers and comes on the back side of a storm system on that's on the Northeastern coast. The core of the upper level low is very cold, a minimum of 516/522 thickness value. 850 temps low as -15c (5f)
With 850mb temps being that cold, there would be snow growth. So, this ULL can bring flurries and snow showers for a good portion of the southeastern states. If there would be an increase of moisture associated with this ULL, this thing would bring considerable amounts of snow. Right now, the GFS is showing that the moisture would be minimal with this ULL feature. I'm not sure why the moisture content is minimal, perhaps it's due to the very dry air that would be in place.
No, the upcoming pattern in early December will not be favorable for southern sliders. If we take a look at the EPS from today, the -EPO and -NAO is still there, and now looks like there could be a neutral/slight positive PNA. This pattern would suggest clippers, Miller-A track storm systems. It would be difficult for a southern slider storm system to develop due to the ridging over Mexico and up into Arizona and New Mexico.
Golf7575
Member
Thanks. It is a 240hr map so alot can still change imo. I am in Arkansas btw.
Jeremy Camp
Member
I know this is a little ways out!. It looks promising!. I hope it verifies it would be awesome to have snow in Dec for a second time since Dec 9, 2017
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Wait, I’ve been hearing for 3 weeks now, that a negative NAO was imminent??
I know the MJO is not the end all be all, BUT.....if that euro map is right, posted before, that would be MUCH different than last year. Something to keep an eye on it.
-EPO normally destroys a -NAO
Yes, that ULL feature is a good ways out, 9-10 days out. I was just pointing out that it was interesting and maybe it's something to watch out for. Come on, be positive!
Golf7575
Member
Wxwatch, we in the south, so we always apprehensive when it comes to cold weather and snow chances.??
well color me SHOCKED! My zip code might as well be 37738 for that second week in December anyways ?
️ hope that SER is cranking east of the Appalachians
well color me SHOCKED! My zip code might as well be 37738 for that second week in December anyways
️ hope that SER is cranking east of the Appalachians
️ hope that SER is cranking east of the Appalachians
Watch your mouth.
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Ilovesnow28
Member
Wow if this was to verify ill definitely be satisfied after not seeing any snow last winter here in central alabama
MJO Analysis
I know this graphic looks very Intimidating, I’ll try to walk you through It as I disperse my thoughts. If you want to skip the explanation, the summary is at the bottom.
Green represents suppressed energy
Brown represents increased energy
It seems that there will be a standing wave of extremely weak energy between 0 and 60 degrees east. I would think that this strong feature is due to our +IOD which we seem to be cashing out on with our strong area of suppressed energy.
It appears that the most energy will continue to move to the east from 60 degrees east to 60 degrees west.
When comparing this to a map
We will have a lack of energy from the red line to the blue line which is about from Africa to west of India.
our increase of energy looks to move from the blue line weakly to the end of the map and beyond
when comparing that to the actual MJO map
Yellow=0 degrees
Red= 60 degrees E
Purple=120 degrees E
When taking off the markings and comparing the maps to the chart
Blue= Suppressed Energy
Red= Increased Energy
Summary: It seems that as long as we see that green streak strong between 0 and 60 degrees E, the MJO will be very favorable to stay in phases 8,1 and 2 early on. Unfortunately It does look to go into phase 3 which is a blowtorch. However that’s debatable. I believe we could stall in phase 3 and go above average between the 10th and 15th. Though luckily our standing wave looks to stick around and I’m guessing, don’t guarantee me on that, a favorable pattern around Christmas or early January. Hopefully our SSW should suppress this warmup, but we shall see.
In comparison to last year, the MJO looks much slower, which again, I suspect is due to the +IOD.
I hope that clarified a some thoughts and was easy to understand.
I know this graphic looks very Intimidating, I’ll try to walk you through It as I disperse my thoughts. If you want to skip the explanation, the summary is at the bottom.
Green represents suppressed energy
Brown represents increased energy
It seems that there will be a standing wave of extremely weak energy between 0 and 60 degrees east. I would think that this strong feature is due to our +IOD which we seem to be cashing out on with our strong area of suppressed energy.
It appears that the most energy will continue to move to the east from 60 degrees east to 60 degrees west.
When comparing this to a map
We will have a lack of energy from the red line to the blue line which is about from Africa to west of India.
our increase of energy looks to move from the blue line weakly to the end of the map and beyond
when comparing that to the actual MJO map
Yellow=0 degrees
Red= 60 degrees E
Purple=120 degrees E
When taking off the markings and comparing the maps to the chart
Blue= Suppressed Energy
Red= Increased Energy
Summary: It seems that as long as we see that green streak strong between 0 and 60 degrees E, the MJO will be very favorable to stay in phases 8,1 and 2 early on. Unfortunately It does look to go into phase 3 which is a blowtorch. However that’s debatable. I believe we could stall in phase 3 and go above average between the 10th and 15th. Though luckily our standing wave looks to stick around and I’m guessing, don’t guarantee me on that, a favorable pattern around Christmas or early January. Hopefully our SSW should suppress this warmup, but we shall see.
In comparison to last year, the MJO looks much slower, which again, I suspect is due to the +IOD.
I hope that clarified a some thoughts and was easy to understand.
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Could you or a mod add this to the archive thread?
SimeonNC
Member
More like Huntersville up towards Iredell county gets hammered while CLT north of I-85 gets sleet and everywhere else from Southend to Ballantye, Rock Hill, etc. gets rained on.
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Cadi40
Member
Yep, more often than not South Charlotte gets rained on, literally. In a few cases, the further south and east you got from Charlotte the higher the totals.
It's time for N AL to get in on one of these early December snows.
And Chatty town too.. we've pretty much whiffed on those last two. Half inch in 2017, nothing in 2018.
Brent
Member
same here, hasn't snowed in December since I moved here 5 years ago
Nothing over .5 inches in Chattanooga since Feb 2015. This is my season, damn it. I can't handle another 1997-2007 stretch. Nothing over an inch in that stretch.
Don’t forget about that stratospheric warning event happening soon .. that could help us out later in that period around Christmas to early January
Brent
Member
March 2015 4 inches here
Nothing more than a dusting since
Oh and the ensemble mean isn't even that cold here looking at early December so far(I think its trended warmer) we were colder 2 weeks ago
nah bad, considering the early-ness: 
Posting the 240 Euro just because it looks cool.
S
snowcool776
Guest
?? Okay, will keep my mouth quiet.
S
snowcool776
Guest
Looks like its going to be colder for the North on December 4.
There are strong zones set up SW to NE across the SE. You can draw a line from downtown Raleigh to downtown Charlotte and, more times than not, have the same ptypes for winter storms. My sister lived in Mooresville (north of Charlotte) for years and many times we had very similar outcomes for winter storms. Not all the time, but enough to know we were in a similar zone. **like Roxboro has similar ptypes as Greensboro (SW-NE line).
Driving from Townsend to Gatlinburg this morning you could see the hoarfrost just above 3000 feet or so.
I think it would be cool if we created a thread specifically for other parts of the country. Sometimes its nice to talk about and observe the weather in other areas.
Just saw some token flakes up in Boone NC! The sun is partially out so this is bizarre.