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Pattern The Great December Dump

Myfrotho704_ said:
Need that trough axis to dig just a little bit more south for more CAA and I like where it went nuetral tilt otherwise WAA would start to be a issue
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Yeah I think this system has legs for us but if we can get more CAA and a better positioning for us with no WAA screwing us we may get our first legitimate se winter storm
 
Brick Tamland said:
The weather around Dec 5 has been looking interesting for a while. Still a long way out, but it is nice to already have potential showing up.
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I agree my only biggest concern is if we can get a legitimate storm to show up and the models continue to be consistent in showing a potential storm for us.... Not saying models don't but we will be licking our chops if models latch on to a storm and come close to verification time it's legit.
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
I agree my only biggest concern is if we can get a legitimate storm to show up and the models continue to be consistent in showing a potential storm for us.... Not saying models don't but we will be licking our chops if models latch on to a storm and come close to verification time it's legit.
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Its gone on the 12z


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12Z GFS: back to warmer than normal already by 12/5. Cold lovers won’t like this. This is a whopping 4 days earlier than the last few runs.
 
Well this is the south so if it snows its always going to be a bonus when most of us who lives in the deep south only average below 4 inches or lesser than that a winter and if people get more than what they average is because either they get a good amount from one storm or if it snows more than one time... And lets not forget we still barely a month away from winter
 
GaWx said:
12Z GFS: back to warmer than normal already by 12/5. Cold lovers won’t like this. This is a whopping 4 days earlier than the last few runs.
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The “warm up” has us at like 60 degrees for a day and then right back in the fridge ... I’m a cold lover and I must say I think I’ll be able to handle that torch
 
Ilovesnow28 said:
Hmmmm
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If that storm system does happen, it may end up being a Miller-A according to the 500mb heights from the EPS.
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Avalanche said:
Not if you live in Yakutsk Russia
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Fortunately, the GEFS has more of a semblance of a -EPO and a general trough in the US. It's certainly not horrendous, but it's also not something that makes me think a sustained cold and/or snowy pattern will set up anytime soon. That said, it's a LR model.
 
KyloG said:
GEFS with some size-able changes in the extended. +PNA, split flow

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Yeah, good news in long range fantasy it pops a +PNA, Aleutian low, and thus an eastern trough. Bad news is no blocking -AO/-NAO and the WAR returns. Probably seasonal. I'll take that for December if true.

It looks to me though things have really started to revert back to last year's pattern which kind of bums me out. I hope not. Tracking a pattern change in late December will just be the worst.

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SnowNiner said:
Yeah, good news in long range fantasy it pops a +PNA, Aleutian low, and thus an eastern trough. Bad news is no blocking -AO/-NAO and the WAR returns. Probably seasonal. I'll take that for December if true.

It looks to me though things have really started to revert back to last year's pattern which kind of bums me out. I hope not. Tracking a pattern change in late December will just be the worst.

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Walls do help!


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KyloG said:
It's pretty unusual to see EPS with these large type changes at day 10-11 from a GOA ridge to an Aleutian low in a couple of runs.

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Volatility and model chaos with pattern recognition in the LR almost always means change is on the way..... I'll take it.
 
It's just percentage possibilities (or to be kind, probabilities) ... but it is so very nice looking ... just hope when it really counts in a month plus we're seeing the same thing ...

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except I also hope Brent is in on any party we may have ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
It's just percentage possibilities (or to be kind, probabilities) ... but it is so very nice looking ... just hope when it really counts in a month plus we're seeing the same thing ...

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except I also hope Brent is in on any party we may have ... :cool:
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I remember when, before I was really active on weather boards and before there were a lot of great sources to get model output, just mainly looking at the CPC data you posted in order to get an idea of the upcoming period. Sometimes, I wonder if it wouldn't be better to go back to that.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember when, before I was really active on weather boards and before there were a lot of great sources to get model output, just mainly looking at the CPC data you posted in order to get an idea of the upcoming period. Sometimes, I wonder if it wouldn't be better to go back to that.
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It is a tool, for sure; trends show up and that's often a seemingly lost point of reference when models every 6 hours tend to get one to focus on more finite parameters; point being, if I can articulate it, is that a part of weather at this level is looking for a solid blend of trends that are consistent over time ... CPC helps a bit in that regard ... :oops:
 
The Happy Hour version of the unreliable GEFS is much warmer and the warmest of any run for 12/5-8. No surprise. That's what the GEFS does very often because of..…..
 
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