Until the Nina torch kicks in and warms the entire North American continent up into the 70s (with the exception of Mexico which, of course, will receive abundant snowfall, as usual).
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
To my untrained eye the 18z GEFS was not terrible but noticeably less impressive out in la la land compared to the last few runs
I'm betting as well, my confidence is increasing that there could be a winter storm that time frame (possibly earlier) snow or an ice storm, or a mixture of both with one system.
Golf7575
Member
Wxwatch, is this a southern slider pattern moving forward?
NoSnowATL
Member
Looks like the NE might see the 1st true snowy Nor Easter. That looks impressive at the end of the run on TT.
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all Depends on the position of that Canada/gl vortex, the farther south, the lower/more suppressed storm track, and the more north the Vortex is, that increases the chance of a miller B setup, unfortunately it’s most likely either sheared n suppressed crap or a miller B setup, but it doesn’t look bad for overrunning either
Absolutely not.
Yep, unfortunately we need a -NAO to increase chances of that
Golf7575
Member
I guess we still have a ways to go? I am further nw, but it may not make a difference im assuming ??
This feature is very interesting and I have never seen anything like this. A upper level low veers and comes on the back side of a storm system that's on the Northeastern coast. The core of the upper level low is very cold, a minimum of 516/522 thickness value. 850 temps low as -15c (5f)
With 850mb temps being that cold, there would be snow growth. So, this ULL can bring flurries and snow showers for a good portion of the southeastern states. If there would be an increase of moisture associated with this ULL, this thing would bring considerable amounts of snow. Right now, the GFS is showing that the moisture would be minimal with this ULL feature. I'm not sure why the moisture content is minimal, perhaps it's due to the very dry air that would be in place.
With 850mb temps being that cold, there would be snow growth. So, this ULL can bring flurries and snow showers for a good portion of the southeastern states. If there would be an increase of moisture associated with this ULL, this thing would bring considerable amounts of snow. Right now, the GFS is showing that the moisture would be minimal with this ULL feature. I'm not sure why the moisture content is minimal, perhaps it's due to the very dry air that would be in place.
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I'm guessing you won't see anything like this outside of model fantasyland.This feature is very interesting and I have never seen anything like this. A upper level low veers and comes on the back side of a storm system on that's on the Northeastern coast. The core of the upper level low is very cold, a minimum of 516/522 thickness value. 850 temps low as -15c (5f)
With 850mb temps being that cold, there would be snow growth. So, this ULL can bring flurries and snow showers for a good portion of the southeastern states. If there would be an increase of moisture associated with this ULL, this thing would bring considerable amounts of snow. Right now, the GFS is showing that the moisture would be minimal with this ULL feature. I'm not sure why the moisture content is minimal, perhaps it's due to the very dry air that would be in place.
No, the upcoming pattern in early December will not be favorable for southern sliders. If we take a look at the EPS from today, the -EPO and -NAO is still there, and now looks like there could be a neutral/slight positive PNA. This pattern would suggest clippers, Miller-A track storm systems. It would be difficult for a southern slider storm system to develop due to the ridging over Mexico and up into Arizona and New Mexico.
Golf7575
Member
Thanks. It is a 240hr map so alot can still change imo. I am in Arkansas btw.
Jeremy Camp
Member
I know this is a little ways out!. It looks promising!. I hope it verifies it would be awesome to have snow in Dec for a second time since Dec 9, 2017
Wait, I’ve been hearing for 3 weeks now, that a negative NAO was imminent??
I know the MJO is not the end all be all, BUT.....if that euro map is right, posted before, that would be MUCH different than last year. Something to keep an eye on it.
-EPO normally destroys a -NAO
Yes, that ULL feature is a good ways out, 9-10 days out. I was just pointing out that it was interesting and maybe it's something to watch out for. Come on, be positive!
Golf7575
Member
Wxwatch, we in the south, so we always apprehensive when it comes to cold weather and snow chances.??
well color me SHOCKED! My zip code might as well be 37738 for that second week in December anyways ?
️ hope that SER is cranking east of the Appalachians