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Pattern The Great December Dump

CAT 5 Super Typhoon on the euro. What impacts for us? I think a cold blast (3 days?) in early December then mild to hot later in Dec. FA50C929-D7F1-41F4-96E8-8FFA35AC2821.jpeg
 
Brent said:
remember when it was gonna be cold
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It is still looking like late 12/1 through 12/4 will be cold in the SE. That hasn't gone away. But it appears that the EPS is going to win yet again with its more moderate brand of cold averaged out over the 5 days vs the typical overdoing it of the GEFS with it repeatedly having had MB averaged out for the SE over a full 5 day period. Intense GEFS cold always needs to be looked at skeptically when it is colder than the EPS, which is most of the time.
 
Say what you want, but at least the American and Canadian are in general agreement with what happens beyond 200hr.. ??‍♂️69269C21-B45A-4655-81D8-B60CA25EEED7.pngBA99F079-D909-465E-B35A-8D86D698E9F4.png
 
Everyone seems to be very down about the pattern .. honestly I see a lot of potential for at least some flakes for some in the south and maybe a storm too.. yes we “warm” up for a couple of days but in no means do I really see a “torch” of any kind showing up at any point in the mid or long range .. just quick glances of warmer temps .. if anything we look cooler than average to maybe even temp wise .. which for us is a huge win .. the BIG L and when everyone actually should be negative and posting temp anomaly maps are when we have a consistent ridge in place that never moves ... which ain’t looking likely for any part this winter
 
When you lose your cold source nearing the middle of December, it’s not a good look!19644B9F-9BA4-4B96-B790-B38B06695113.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Oh the difference a day can make. Winter 2020 preview? Wish I had more to add. NextView attachment 26489View attachment 26488
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I wouldn’t worry about Dec 6-11 period yet. A lot has yet to be figured out especially on the GEFS. The upper air pattern changes every run, so the GEFS surface temp anomalies are too unreliable for this time period to see trends.

Both the EPS and GEFS are showing signs of popping a GOA low, which should in turn give us a +PNA and trough in the east. It could correct west though with a more -EPO look, but the pattern doesn’t necessarily look warm even without a -AO there’s some blocking here.

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Jon said:
I wouldn’t worry about Dec 6-11 period yet. A lot has yet to be figured out especially on the GEFS. The upper air pattern changes every run, so the GEFS surface temp anomalies are too unreliable for this time period to see trends.

Both the EPS and GEFS are showing signs of popping a GOA low, which should in turn give us a +PNA and trough in the east. It could correct west though with a more -EPO look, but the pattern doesn’t necessarily look warm even without a -AO there’s some blocking here.

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True ... but it still looks very transient ... got time these systems .
 
Jon said:
I wouldn’t worry about Dec 6-11 period yet. A lot has yet to be figured out especially on the GEFS. The upper air pattern changes every run, so the GEFS surface temp anomalies are too unreliable for this time period to see trends.

Both the EPS and GEFS are showing signs of popping a GOA low, which should in turn give us a +PNA and trough in the east. It could correct west though with a more -EPO look, but the pattern doesn’t necessarily look warm even without a -AO there’s some blocking here.

d989e57e1247c5b96bd090643ed0597a.jpg





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That's a pretty good look there. And I've heard that the European products have a warm bias!
 
Jon said:
I wouldn’t worry about Dec 6-11 period yet. A lot has yet to be figured out especially on the GEFS. The upper air pattern changes every run, so the GEFS surface temp anomalies are too unreliable for this time period to see trends.

Both the EPS and GEFS are showing signs of popping a GOA low, which should in turn give us a +PNA and trough in the east. It could correct west though with a more -EPO look, but the pattern doesn’t necessarily look warm even without a -AO there’s some blocking here.

d989e57e1247c5b96bd090643ed0597a.jpg





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That's good news to see on the EPS, because the GEFS is just not what we want to see. Ridging donut with low heights "hole" at the pole. Doh! We hug EPS.

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Rain Cold said:
BAMWX aint quite JB or MBCMSNBC Combo yet, but they are doing some serious work.
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Keep in mind that BAMwx, just like JB, caters to energy clients at this time of year. Energy clients often want higher energy prices (natural gas and heating oil) which cold often supports in winter. The colder the forecasts, the more attention his site likely receives. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.
 
Tarheel1 said:
True story! But this Bam guy flip flops from day to day. JB just goes balls to the wall cold, 95% of the time
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I dont know if you all follow him or not but he’s been calling for a warm December since like August ? he does think cold returns January on but even then if u look at their forecast for winter it’s probably more reasonable than anyone’s for the southeast
 
A lot of widespread snow coming to western NC, eastern TN and north GA. My deleted thread wasn’t for Mount Mitchell this coming Monday. Many mountain communities will be impacted. I expect some Winter Storm Watches this weekend.
 
6-12” looks easily achievable right along the border with a strong north-west flow from Lake Michigan.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
A lot of widespread snow coming to western NC, eastern TN and north GA. My deleted thread wasn’t for Mount Mitchell this coming Monday. Many mountain communities will be impacted. I expect some Winter Storm Watches this weekend.
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I know that this will be a decent upslope event. However, those areas are not largely populated, and the mountains are such an anomalous microclimate compared to the rest of the south. We don't want to have too many threads going on at one time, so we are in discussions behind the scenes on the best way to handle these type of events. Stay tuned!

(Also remember that you were asked to get permission from a moderator before starting a thread.)
 
BirdManDoomW said:
A lot of widespread snow coming to western NC, eastern TN and north GA. My deleted thread wasn’t for Mount Mitchell this coming Monday. Many mountain communities will be impacted. I expect some Winter Storm Watches this weekend.
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With NW flow, avl doesn’t ever get a lot. Maybe an inch or two at max if we can get some strong winds. Usually it’s flurries if we get anything.
 
If you look at the surface, it looks like a secondary coastal low forms. But, looking up at 500mb, it's actually one low. Howevere, it's possible that a secondary (inland) low does form and brings snow for a good portion of the Upper-South and parts further south and east, such as Northern Georgia and the Carolinas. For now, back side snow showers/flurries for the northwest facing slopes.
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WxWatch said:
If you look at the surface, it looks like a secondary coastal low forms. But, looking up at 500mb, it's actually one low. Howevere, it's possible that a secondary (inland) low does form and brings snow for a good portion of the Upper-South and parts further south and east, such as Northern Georgia and the Carolinas. For now, back side snow showers/flurries for the northwest facing slopes.
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No snow anywhere but the mountains with an ULL in that position
 
SnowNiner said:
That's good news to see on the EPS, because the GEFS is just not what we want to see. Ridging donut with low heights "hole" at the pole. Doh! We hug EPS.

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Looks pretty good to me. +PNA/-EPO signal with PV sliding toward the Hudson. Need the western ridge a little stronger and farther east, but not a bad look at all.
 
packfan98 said:
I know that this will be a decent upslope event. However, those areas are not largely populated, and the mountains are such an anomalous microclimate compared to the rest of the south. We don't want to have too many threads going on at one time, so we are in discussions behind the scenes on the best way to handle these type of events. Stay tuned!

(Also remember that you were asked to get permission from a moderator before starting a thread.)
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It's always populated when App is in town. Myself @ a few others on here, frequent up there a lot.
 
SnowNiner said:
That's good news to see on the EPS, because the GEFS is just not what we want to see. Ridging donut with low heights "hole" at the pole. Doh! We hug EPS.

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As long as the GEFS shows raised heights on the west coast I’m fine with that. It’s horrible in this range anyway. That’s why it’s also not a good idea to use 2m temps on 240+ hour maps unless it’s at least a 5 day mean. Model skill outside of Day 8 at the very minimum is absolute trash, especially 2mTs. The model frame will show a ridge on the west (like the gefs depicted) and give us warmth in the east which is absolutely wrong.


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Not to be negative, but our short/mid and long range looks boring to me outside of the mountains. I hope it changes.
 
accu35 said:
Not to be negative, but our short/mid and long range looks boring to me outside of the mountains. I hope it changes.
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accu35 said:
Not to be negative, but our short/mid and long range looks boring to me outside of the mountains. I hope it changes.
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It doesn't sound negative, just appropriately descriptive of what is currently being modeled in the southeast US. Probably going to be very typical fall like weather. I would like to see more rain chances, however. I hope the cold fronts over-perform.
 
weatherfide said:
It doesn't sound negative, just appropriately descriptive of what is currently being modeled in the southeast US. Probably going to be very typical fall like weather. I would like to see more rain chances, however. I hope the cold fronts over-perform.
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Me personally, I can use a break from the rain.
 
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