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Pattern The Great December Dump

MJO Analysis
I know this graphic looks very Intimidating, I’ll try to walk you through It as I disperse my thoughts. If you want to skip the explanation, the summary is at the bottom.

Green represents suppressed energy
Brown represents increased energy
2FC40A70-6474-4D21-95C7-2322C1E634EE.png
It seems that there will be a standing wave of extremely weak energy between 0 and 60 degrees east. I would think that this strong feature is due to our +IOD which we seem to be cashing out on with our strong area of suppressed energy.

It appears that the most energy will continue to move to the east from 60 degrees east to 60 degrees west.

When comparing this to a map
We will have a lack of energy from the red line to the blue line which is about from Africa to west of India.

our increase of energy looks to move from the blue line weakly to the end of the map and beyond
08925251-A98E-40B7-82BE-BCAAA07739FC.jpeg
when comparing that to the actual MJO map
Yellow=0 degrees
Red= 60 degrees E
Purple=120 degrees E
E688B369-581F-4765-A909-B1DD8434DD33.jpeg
When taking off the markings and comparing the maps to the chart
Blue= Suppressed Energy
Red= Increased Energy
1D7C9682-F90A-43B1-9D87-F99767C460D0.jpeg
Summary: It seems that as long as we see that green streak strong between 0 and 60 degrees E, the MJO will be very favorable to stay in phases 8,1 and 2 early on. Unfortunately It does look to go into phase 3 which is a blowtorch. However that’s debatable. I believe we could stall in phase 3 and go above average between the 10th and 15th. Though luckily our standing wave looks to stick around and I’m guessing, don’t guarantee me on that, a favorable pattern around Christmas or early January. Hopefully our SSW should suppress this warmup, but we shall see.

In comparison to last year, the MJO looks much slower, which again, I suspect is due to the +IOD.

I hope that clarified a some thoughts and was easy to understand.
 
Last edited:
Cadi40 said:
Last year it was Raleigh that got hammered with it’s December snow, this year it’s Charlotte’s turn.
Click to expand...
More like Huntersville up towards Iredell county gets hammered while CLT north of I-85 gets sleet and everywhere else from Southend to Ballantye, Rock Hill, etc. gets rained on.

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 
Yep, more often than not South Charlotte gets rained on, literally. In a few cases, the further south and east you got from Charlotte the higher the totals.
 
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Ollie Williams said:
MJO Analysis
I know this graphic looks very Intimidating, I’ll try to walk you through It as I disperse my thoughts. If you want to skip the explanation, the summary is at the bottom.

Green represents suppressed energy
Brown represents increased energy
View attachment 26421
It seems that there will be a standing wave of extremely weak energy between 0 and 60 degrees east. I would think that this strong feature is due to our +IOD which we seem to be cashing out on with our strong area of suppressed energy.

It appears that the most energy will continue to move to the east from 60 degrees east to 60 degrees west.

When comparing this to a map
We will have a lack of energy from the red line to the blue line which is about from Africa to west of India.

our increase of energy looks to move from the blue line weakly to the end of the map and beyond
View attachment 26422
when comparing that to the actual MJO map
Yellow=0 degrees
Red= 60 degrees E
Purple=120 degrees E
View attachment 26423
When taking off the markings and comparing the maps to the chart
Blue= Suppressed Energy
Red= Increased Energy
View attachment 26424
Summary: It seems that as long as we see that green streak strong between 0 and 60 degrees E, the MJO will be very favorable to stay in phases 8,1 and 2. Unfortunately It does look to go into phase 3 at the end of the run, which is a blowtorch. However that’s debatable, in which you could argue that is still phase 2. I would not be surprised if we start to go into the warm phases around Christmas time and into January, though hopefully the +IOD should suppress and speed it up any energy that gets into the warm phases. If anybody is hoping for winter weather, the MJO will be favorable for quite a while.

In comparison to last year, the MJO looks much slower, which again, I suspect is due to the +IOD.

I hope that clarified a some thoughts and was easy to understand.
Click to expand...
Don’t forget about that stratospheric warning event happening soon .. that could help us out later in that period around Christmas to early January
 
SETNwx said:
Nothing over .5 inches in Chattanooga since Feb 2015. This is my season, damn it. I can't handle another 1997-2007 stretch. Nothing over an inch in that stretch.
Click to expand...

March 2015 4 inches here

Nothing more than a dusting since

Oh and the ensemble mean isn't even that cold here looking at early December so far(I think its trended warmer) we were colder 2 weeks ago
 
Cadi40 said:
Yep, more often than not South Charlotte gets rained on, literally. In a few cases, the further south and east you got from Charlotte the higher the totals.
Click to expand...
There are strong zones set up SW to NE across the SE. You can draw a line from downtown Raleigh to downtown Charlotte and, more times than not, have the same ptypes for winter storms. My sister lived in Mooresville (north of Charlotte) for years and many times we had very similar outcomes for winter storms. Not all the time, but enough to know we were in a similar zone. **like Roxboro has similar ptypes as Greensboro (SW-NE line).
 
I think it would be cool if we created a thread specifically for other parts of the country. Sometimes its nice to talk about and observe the weather in other areas.
 
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