• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Is the GFS coming out 10+ minutes earlier now? I noticed an earlier time starting with the current run (12z),
 
Can't wait to see the Weatherbug app if this turns out to be the case:

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_57.png

HM does a pretty good job laying out the case for the models having an especially difficult time right now. Anyway, it's good to see blocking showing up down the line.
 
Rain Cold said:
Can't wait to see the Weatherbug app if this turns out to be the case:

View attachment 26569

HM does a pretty good job laying out the case for the models having an especially difficult time right now. Anyway, it's good to see blocking showing up down the line.
Click to expand...
One day, a 300+ hour GFS map, might be right, but not in this lifetime! Weatherbug, for all the forecasts that be buggin’!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Womp.

#realitycheck

View attachment 26571
Click to expand...

I’ll try this again but without the dumb Gif, I think the models are seeing the phases ( warm)the MJO is in and going into, the PV event at the end of the month along with the MJO predicted to go back to cold phases should work out just in time for January. So yea it’s all part of the plan in a sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NoSnowATL said:
I’ll try this again but without the dumb Gif, I think the models are seeing the phases ( warm)the MJO is in and going into, the PV event at the end of the month along with the MJO predicted to go back to cold phases should work out just in time for January. So yea it’s all part of the plan in a sense.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yea, this is basically what I've been thinking for the last few weeks w/ a renewed opportunity for a better pattern probably around early January (ish)? It really depends on how fast this MJO wave finally disentangles itself from the West Indian Ocean & it doesn't look like that'll happen anytime soon. If we get lucky, maybe we'll see a convectively coupled kelvin wave traverse the central Pacific around Christmas.

chi200.cfs.eqtr (3).png
 
Rain Cold said:
I love a good warm CFS as much as the next guy, but...well, it is the CFS, at the end of the day.
Click to expand...

The reason they're worth looking at atm is because we're at the point in the month where the following month's temperature forecast is actually reliable. This same model was not predicting a torch just a few days ago.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The reason they're worth looking at atm is because we're at the point in the month where the following month's temperature forecast is actually reliable. This same model was not predicting a torch just a few days ago.
Click to expand...
Agreed....if it's going to have any skill at all, it's going to be the last few days of the month. We still have a few to go, so maybe it'll turn around the other way. Earlier this month, it was looking really warm.
 
I much rather have a storm in January than that slop we had last year. I could care less if it’s bookended by torches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Remember last year, the MJO messed “ great looking” patterns up? Kind of like Deja-Vu
 
GaWx said:
Is the GFS coming out 10+ minutes earlier now? I noticed an earlier time starting with the current run (12z),
Click to expand...

Well, the Happy Hour run has gone back to normal time for good or for worse.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like lows forming on the tail end of frontal boundaries, is a real thing this year! If we get a cold enough shot, I like our chances!View attachment 26582
Click to expand...
The precipitation pattern is pretty good and the propensity for southern-tracking systems and coastals is definitely a good thing. We really need to get pretty deep into December before we worry too much about frozen precip. If we continue to see the precip/storm trends that we're seeing now, I agree with you about our chances.
 
cee6188a7078a72f134b0fb4704ecd45.jpg


Good video to watch and I agree with 99%. Best part is around 10:30ish...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Happy Thanksgiving, from your friendly GFS fantasy clipper!F1F29D5B-21C6-4A37-B26A-2A6651318018.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well we’re literally a few days from December lol
Click to expand...

What I meant to say is that by December 10th the CFSv2 will be close to showing the actual December temps, what it shows in November will likely be wrong. Seems most every month it gets the following month wrong as a forecast but it's hind cast is pretty good :p
 
MichaelJ said:
What I meant to say is that by December 10th the CFSv2 will be close to showing the actual December temps, what it shows in November will likely be wrong. Seems most every month it gets the following month wrong as a forecast but it's hind cast is pretty good :p
Click to expand...
The cfs forecasts of the following months temperature at the end of the preceding month are actually not bad at all, there are innumerable examples of this
 
Webberweather53 said:
The cfs forecasts of the following months temperature at the end of the preceding month are actually not bad at all, there are innumerable examples of this
Click to expand...

There are certainly instances where the CFSv2 monthly forecasts at the end of the month bust, but the last 2 forecasts for October & November at the end of September and October respectively have been excellent.
Screen Shot 2019-11-28 at 9.08.35 AM.png

cd75.184.25.237.331.7.56.47.prcp.png

Screen Shot 2019-11-28 at 9.08.25 AM.png
ANOM2m_fcstMTH_ntham.png
 
Good news is looks to be cool wet weekend for most. Heavy snow for Boston, looks like they will be starting off met winter with a big snowfall.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-total_precip_inch-5439200.png
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-total_snow_10to1-5439200.png
 
KyloG said:
Hopefully something to this


It isn't getting better for Dec as we close out the month.

View attachment 26599
Click to expand...
You mean we don’t want all of earth’s cold air bottled up at the pole?..?? At least it’s on the right side of the globe..Am I wrong in thinking this would bode well down the road if we can get that vortex to spin and strengthen towards the pole before winter actually starts?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
You mean we don’t want all of earth’s cold air bottled up at the pole?..?? At least it’s on the right side of the globe..Am I wrong in thinking this would bode well down the road if we can get that vortex to spin and strengthen towards the pole before winter actually starts?
Click to expand...

Honestly, I don't see anything that bodes well for the immediate future. Hope is climo takes over for February. Hope I am wrong though and it's sooner.
 
KyloG said:
Honestly, I don't see anything that bodes well for the immediate future. Hope is climo takes over for February. Hope I am wrong though and it's sooner.
Click to expand...
3 backloads in a row! Awesome
 
Here’s a food CFSv2 example of a flip cold the last 3 days of runs that actually verified. This model can be run the last 3 days of the prior month and verify just as well.

c6b3d54844075ce08b244739c42d6625.jpg

f01b87b3ccb87647e4e6844bce538674.jpg


So yeah, not a good sign it got rid of the cold trends to end the month. We’ll be lucky if this trends near normal, but history tells you to expect a warm dec...
580e18698e386c2222f1035c2e6a1a2e.gif



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top