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Pattern The Great December Dump

SETNwx said:
It's possible we don't see another freeze into mid Dec. The upcoming cold spell first of the month now only has 33 as the lowest temp, according to NWS anyway. Probably see one, but may be just one night. Nov is going to end up around -3 BN, so nothing spectacular.
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It would be sad if we don't even have another freeze by Christmas
 
Webberweather53 said:
“Golden” years... Huntsville, AL’s snowfall average has been virtually cut in half from nearly 4” from 1950-1985 to about 2” from 1986 to present. It’s all a matter of perception and I’d hardly call the more modern era “Golden”.
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The 2010s have been "Golden" for the Southern and Central part of Alabama.
 
deltadog03 said:
I’m ok with a normal to above normal first half of December if we flip the switch toward the latter half of December.
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Me too. But the problem is, does it actually switch? It seems like the typical theme this decade is the December pattern repeats. The cold winters on 09-10 and 10-11 were cold Decembers. I know December 13 was a torch and the winter turned out good. So there are exceptions but if December torches I'd expect much of the same all winter with a few cold shots and storm chances sprinkled in.
 
RollTide18 said:
The 2010s have been "Golden" for the Southern and Central part of Alabama.
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The only part of Alabama that’s seen well above (>150%) normal snowfall in the 2010s even against the 1981-2010 average that’s already a significant downward step change from much longer term means, is southern Alabama near the Gulf coast where storms are so infrequent that only a couple random events in a decade automatically push these areas to well above normal levels
 
Webberweather53 said:
The latter point is pretty easy to understand if you acknowledge man made climate change is real and is significantly moving the base state in a milder direction. You don’t get 9 warm Decembers in a row by random chance
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Yeah, if we assumed no global warming since the 1981-2010 average, the stat chance for 9 Decembers in a row being exactly at or warmer than normal is a mere ~1 in 500. And many of these have been very warm. So, the random chance of the consistency and degree of warmth is actually way less than 1 in 500.....probably something like 1 in several thousand. So, indeed, we know it has to be due to a warmer base state vs the 1981-2010 average.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The only part of Alabama that’s seen well above (>150%) normal snowfall in the 2010s even against the 1981-2010 average that’s already a significant downward step change from much longer term means, is southern Alabama near the Gulf coast where storms are so infrequent that only a couple random events in a decade automatically push these areas to well above normal levels
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Most don't care about the north, including me because they always get their fair share. But how are cities like Chicago, Minneapolis and New York this decade compared to long longterm averages? You'd think those areas actually benefit from a warmer climate since warmer air holds more moisture and it's still cold enough to snow there anyway.
 
So how has the warming increased DC’s NY, and BOS annual totals? It seems they get 12-24”+ snows at the drop of a hat!? Maybe it’s always been like that??
 
Tarheel1 said:
So how has the warming increased DC’s NY, and BOS annual totals? It seems they get 12-24”+ snows at the drop of a hat!? Maybe it’s always been like that??
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I don't think DC gets very many big storms. Every now and then they'll get dumped on, but DC has a pretty bad climo for snow.
 
I’ve always thought the DC Snow Hole was a myth. It seems like they get multiple 15-20 inch events in a decade. Just look at February 2010 and January 2016, most of us would LOVE to have that much snow in a single winter.
 
CyclonicFury said:
I’ve always thought the DC Snow Hole was a myth. It seems like they get multiple 15-20 inch events in a decade. Just look at February 2010 and January 2016, most of us would LOVE to have that much snow in a single winter.
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DC gets some years where they get hammered and other years where they get hardly nothing. It's feast or famine there. Reagan National had 17" last winter, but only 8" in 2017-18 and only 3" in 2016-17.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The latter point is pretty easy to understand if you acknowledge man made climate change is real and is significantly moving the base state in a milder direction. You don’t get 9 warm Decembers in a row by random chance
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Not to be a contrarian here, but in GSO records, there were 10 Decembers in a row AN from 1920 thru 1929. Also there were 10 Februarys in a row AN from 1948 thru 1957. The most I could find for January was 8 in a row from 1927 thru 1934
 
Webberweather53 said:
“Golden” years... Huntsville, AL’s snowfall average has been virtually cut in half from nearly 4” from 1950-1985 to about 2” from 1986 to present. It’s all a matter of perception and I’d hardly call the more modern era “Golden”.
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Here we have had more snow in the past ten years then the past twenty which includes '93. Besides '93, I can remember two snows over 2" until 2008. While it missed my house personally, the ULL dropped 4-6" across Central AL in 2008. The storm in February 2010 dropped 3-4". The Christmas snow of 2009 dropped 3-4" followed by 2-3" two weeks later. The Snowjam dropped 3-4" with temps in the teens and of course the big one in 2017 dropped 9-10" here. And to count it we had 1.5 to 2" in January of 2018.

Snows over ten inches occured in central or north AL in 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2017. Which is pretty much one every two years. So yes, the past ten years have been golden for AL snows.
 
Arcc said:
Here we have had more snow in the past ten years then the past twenty which includes '93. Besides '93, I can remember two snows over 2" until 2008. While it missed my house personally, the ULL dropped 4-6" across Central AL in 2008. The storm in February 2010 dropped 3-4". The Christmas snow of 2009 dropped 3-4" followed by 2-3" two weeks later. The Snowjam dropped 3-4" with temps in the teens and of course the big one in 2017 dropped 9-10" here. And to count it we had 1.5 to 2" in January of 2018.

Snows over ten inches occured in central or north AL in 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2017. Which is pretty much one every two years. So yes, the past ten years have been golden for AL snows.
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The winters in the mid 20th century were much snowier. Even against the 1981-2010 average the snowfall departures from average are ~100-125% of normal at best in northern Alabama, slightly above this average which is already significantly lower than the long term means if you include years from the mid 20th century, so these are basically normal to even slightly below normal winters snowfall wise against those truly “golden” years. Anecdotally, this seems like a lot of snow to you esp compared to the 1990s, but the harsh reality is it really isn’t.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The only part of Alabama that’s seen well above (>150%) normal snowfall in the 2010s even against the 1981-2010 average that’s already a significant downward step change from much longer term means, is southern Alabama near the Gulf coast where storms are so infrequent that only a couple random events in a decade automatically push these areas to well above normal levels
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I don't think that is correct. I think my average in East Central AL is around 2". If that is the case I received 3-4" in 2009-2010, 6-7" in 2010-2011, 3-4" in 2013-2014 and 11" in 2017-2018.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The winters in the mid 20th century were much snowier. Even against the 1981-2010 average the snowfall departures from average are ~100-125% of normal at best in northern Alabama, slightly above this average which is already significantly lower than the long term means if you include years from the mid 20th century, so these are basically normal to even slightly below normal winters snowfall wise against those truly “golden” years. Anecdotally, this seems like a lot of snow to you esp compared to the 1990s, but the harsh reality is it really isn’t.
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The long term average including these pre 1990s winters at Huntsville is a little over 3”, the average of the 2010s is 3.4”, virtually normal.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
DC gets some years where they get hammered and other years where they get hardly nothing. It's feast or famine there. Reagan National had 17" last winter, but only 8" in 2017-18 and only 3" in 2016-17.
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I'm sure many of us would gladly take 3" in the winter. But yeah climatology is different for them. Snow is pretty much guaranteed if you live north of NC while for us it is special.
 
Stop! Hammertime 6C599641-D980-48D0-BC2A-90B6FB26DFA2.png
 
Arcc said:
No way that is correct, the 2017 snow alone would have put it a least close to normal.
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I'm skeptical also. The area that was the most below normal for snowfall was the area that got hit hardest in the Dec 2017 snowstorm right ? Didn't some areas get close to a foot ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I'm skeptical also. The area that was the most below normal for snowfall was the area that got hit hardest in the Dec 2017 snowstorm right ? Didn't some areas get close to a foot ?
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Webberweather53 said:
This is a map from the midwestern regional climate center and checking the official reporting stations nearby it’s not that far off from what I can tell.
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The big caveat being for stations that actually reliably report snowfall, it’s slim pickings at some points in the last decade, very frustrating really.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a map from the midwestern regional climate center and checking the official reporting stations nearby it’s not that far off from what I can tell.
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Yeah something is bad wrong by my calculations in Cleburne county where the 25-50% is centered received at least 25” since January 2010 and I may have forgotten a event or two.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah something is bad wrong by my calculations in Cleburne county where the 25-50% is centered received at least 25” since January 2010 and I may have forgotten a event or two.
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Yeah there’s hardly any official reporting stations down there that have actually reported snow the entire decade
 
I came on here to see what might be ahead for December per today's models, just a quick check since you know been busy with family. Anyway low and behold Mack the only one who is on topic

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