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Pattern The Great December Dump

So we will have a milder air pattern across the SE until at least mid December?

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Webberweather53 said:
Nope, this monstrous Gulf of Alaska trough in the extended as we experience +EAMT this week will flood the North American continent w/ mild Pacific air & most of the cold air will remained bottled up in extreme northern Canada or exit stage right over the Atlantic Ocean. I hope u like stale, Pacific air.


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That is as ugly as it gets. And almost on the exact date it showed up last year and winter was over. That pattern takes a very long time to get out of and we won't have the luxury of an early season snow this year before it sets in.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nope, this monstrous Gulf of Alaska trough in the extended as we experience +EAMT this week will flood the North American continent w/ mild Pacific air & most of the cold air will remained bottled up in extreme northern Canada or exit stage right over the Atlantic Ocean. I hope u like stale, Pacific air.


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Still hoping this is a necessary evil as it matches up with past good nino's. Of course I am cherry picking the good ones.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-6281600.pngurc67fV6j1.png
 
Warmest 5 day block on the 6z GEFS though 264. Rather be chasing 10+ day warm-ups than 10+ day cool-down, I guess.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
It does look rather seasonable which is ok. But that EPS modeled pattern gives me nightmares about last winter. Isn't that the same pattern that wrecked the 11-12 winter too?
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Not 100% sure on that one. The other thing I'd keep in mind is that these anomaly maps can be confusing in that they often provide an illusion, especially up in Canada, that there's a torch going on. A five day AN block in Canada doesn't mean it still isn't cold, depending on the degree of the anomaly.
 
KyloG said:
Still hoping this is a necessary evil as it matches up with past good nino's. Of course I am cherry picking the good ones.

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Some of those years in your composite had a decent -AO in December which isn't going to happen this year. +AO/+NP Decembers are downright hideous.
M_hERwlQPi.png


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At least they get better in February (shocker).
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GFS is trending nicely for some heavy rains down I40 corridor tomorrow night into Sunday. Tracking rain...it's what we do.

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Jessy89 said:
You can have a mild winter temperature wise. And still get a couple good snow storms. It’s all about timing


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Or you could have a cold winter and not get any snow at all. When it comes to the south, I'm not even sure it matters whether its a warm or cold winter. Does having a cold winter significantly increase the chances for snow in the deep south ? I'm not so sure.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Or you could have a cold winter and not get any snow at all. When it comes to the south, I'm not even sure it matters whether its a warm or cold winter. Does having a cold winter significantly increase the chances for snow in the deep south ? I'm not so sure.
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No, having a colder than normal winter doesn't necessarily mean that there would be more snow in the southeast. There could be cold blasts after cold blasts and still not end up with nothing, but maybe some flurries. Even if it's a warm winter overall, places in the southeast can still experience snowfall. The lower latitudes can experience all types of extreme weather in a short period of time during the winter. I've seen places in the southeast get accumulating snow after a tornado outbreak. So yeah, I don't think it really matters.

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I rather take my hit now with a mild early/mid December to get a cold and stormy late month into Jan, where climo matters more.
 
WxWatch said:
No, having a colder than normal winter doesn't necessarily mean that there would be more snow in the southeast. There could be cold blasts after cold blasts and still not end up with nothing, but maybe some flurries. Even if it's a warm winter overall, places in the southeast can still experience snowfall. The lower latitudes can experience all types of extreme weather in a short period of time during the winter. I've seen places in the southeast get accumulating snow after a tornado outbreak. So yeah, I don't think it really matters.

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It's really a matter of timing. a good example of this is 1927, which I believe was NC's warmest or one of the warmest on record. Yet we still got a record-breaking snowstorm in early March. Truly anything can happen. Colder winters just increase the chance of a shortwave meeting up with colder air.
Graphic courtesy of Webb's site
march-1-3-1927-nc-snowmap_4_orig.png
january_9-11_1927_nc_snowmap.png

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Ollie Williams said:
It's really a matter of timing. a good example of this is 1927, which I believe was NC's warmest or one of the warmest on record. Yet we still got a record-breaking snowstorm in early March. Truly anything can happen. Colder winters just increase the chance of a shortwave meeting up with colder air.
Graphic courtesy of Webb's site
march-1-3-1927-nc-snowmap_4_orig.png
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That’s a beauty. Hard to even fathom, honestly
 
Ollie Williams said:
It's really a matter of timing. a good example of this is 1927, which I believe was NC's warmest or one of the warmest on record. Yet we still got a record-breaking snowstorm in early March. Truly anything can happen. Colder winters just increase the chance of a shortwave meeting up with colder air.
Graphic courtesy of Webb's site
march-1-3-1927-nc-snowmap_4_orig.png
january_9-11_1927_nc_snowmap.png

cd98.121.115.247.332.10.39.6.prcp.png
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That's also the only winter on record where 2 one foot snowfalls occurred in the same winter in Greensboro.


Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s a beauty. Hard to even fathom, honestly
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Definitely happened though, here's a few jaw dropping pics from Goldsboro, NC. This looks like something you'd see in North Dakota...

Goldsboro NC March 1927 Pic 1.jpg

Goldsboro March 1927 Pic 2.jpg
 
GEFS and UK agree with 1"+ QPF for tomorrow into Sunday. The GEFS has trended really nicely for the 40 corridor.

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CMC is not backing down, rain/snow mix far south as far northern Alabama and Northern Georgia. I wouldn't be surprised to see some flakes mixing in with the patchy light rain across northern Atlanta suburbs Monday AM.
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I would be willing to bet that the March 1927 snow in NC happened mostly at night, early in the morning, or late in the afternoon. Hard to get that much snow during the middle of the day in March in NC due to the sun angle.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I would be willing to bet that the March 1927 snow in NC happened mostly at night, early in the morning, or late in the afternoon. Hard to get that much snow during the middle of the day in March in NC due to the sun angle.
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Sun angle means nothing when you’re talking about a blizzard. 93 started around 10am.


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SoutheastRidge said:
I would be willing to bet that the March 1927 snow in NC happened mostly at night, early in the morning, or late in the afternoon. Hard to get that much snow during the middle of the day in March in NC due to the sun angle.
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According to the tales by my grandfather (may he rest in peace) it did fall at night. They had no idea it was coming until they awoke to see all the snow that had fallen overnight.
 
So which run is right ?

Afternoon ensembles :
 

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GaWx said:




BAMWX

@bamwxcom

Also for the record I do not care what these models are showing DEC 15th+ we still believe they are simply incorrect. #natgas #energy #AGwx Bamwx.com
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Webberweather53 said:
Nope, this monstrous Gulf of Alaska trough in the extended as we experience +EAMT this week will flood the North American continent w/ mild Pacific air & most of the cold air will remained bottled up in extreme northern Canada or exit stage right over the Atlantic Ocean. I hope u like stale, Pacific air.


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Not so fast!☃️! BAM says the models are wrong! I would agree if they were showing cold!?
 
SD said:
There are some eps members with snow down your way on the 4th and 12th

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That look N.C.highcountry posted, is tent worthy! Really a good look, I wish it would set up just for a week or two!☃️?
 
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