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Pattern The Great December Dump

SoutheastRidge said:
I would be willing to bet that the March 1927 snow in NC happened mostly at night, early in the morning, or late in the afternoon. Hard to get that much snow during the middle of the day in March in NC due to the sun angle.[/QUOTE
March 24, 1983 had 10 inches in Charlotte that fell almost all during the day
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Ok off topic 93 storm needs to go to banter please. Thank-you.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If i recall the 93 blizzard started on a Friday evening in GA. It got going good overnight.
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I was in NW Cabarrus County, NC during the ‘93 blizzard about 20 miles north of Charlotte. The rain changed to a heavy snow about 11am Saturday and we ended up with about 7 inches before it tapered to flurries about 5pm
 
Chazwin said:
I was in NW Cabarrus County, NC during the ‘93 blizzard about 20 miles north of Charlotte. The rain changed to a heavy snow about 11am Saturday and we ended up with about 7 inches before it tapered to flurries about 5pm
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If it's snowing hard enough then the sun angle can be overcome in March. But it has to be coming down good.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Ok off topic 93 storm needs to go to banter please. Thank-you.
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Shane @SD, can you move the 1993 Storm of The Century posts to either the Whamby thread or the Banter thread please?
Whamby = OT Weather (ie. 1993 SOTC)
Banter = OT Everything Else (ie. Bruins winning)
 
Arcc said:
12z Euro isn't far from a really good look at the end of its run. The EPS/GEFS are warmer, but not far H5 wise.

Progressive patterns can provide big results, as someone said beforehand, it's about timing.
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I was going to say that the 12Z EURO looks better in the Pacific at least, with perhaps a +PNA pattern trying to develop...but alas it is 240 hours + out.
 
Perhaps we should start a thread where we can discuss and reminisce about old storms.

Edit: I just started it. Its fine to bring up old storms to make a point, dispell rumors, use as analogs in the pattern threads. I would actually encourage everyone to use a past storm thread to show pictures you have, post snow maps, post 500mb/surface maps, post anomaly maps leading into a storm. It could actually become a great resource to reference this winter where we can link to that thread and posts in it and for folks to educate themselves on what it looks like synoptipcally before some of the greats.

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GaWx said:
However, the good news is that the much less unreliable 11-15 12Z GEFS (vs the GFS op) retains its much colder than normal 2m temps. The 0Z EPS 11-15 is also colder than normal though not MB. My best guess? B but not MB. MB could still occur but is a riskier bet due to cold b.....never mind.....for a reason I won't get into now but also getting MB averaged out over a 5 day period is much less common than B per history. Getting a 5 day period averaging B with a couple of days of MB within is more common. Beside, the EPS has been the gold standard of late. If the EPS were to show MB, I'd likely go with MB.
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Bump for educational purposes, not for bragging. The goal is to help improve forecasts based on realizing what has repeatedly happened in the past and then posting about it. This is why Maxar constantly fades the colder GEFS and usually goes closer to the EPS. GEFS is pretty crappy.
 
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SD said:
Perhaps we should start a thread where we can discuss and reminisce about old storms.

Edit: I just started it. Its fine to bring up old storms to make a point, dispell rumors, use as analogs in the pattern threads. I would actually encourage everyone to use a past storm thread to show pictures you have, post snow maps, post 500mb/surface maps, post anomaly maps leading into a storm. It could actually become a great resource to reference this winter where we can link to that thread and posts in it and for folks to educate themselves on what it looks like synoptipcally before some of the greats.

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Thanks Shane, I appreciate doing that. ???
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Does this go without saying the GFS has a bit of a cold bias in the extended range..?
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Look at where the model errored. Once again too much Pacific ridge leads to too much eastern trough. Its really not that much different than the issues with the old gfs where it became more and more northern stream dominant in time
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18z GFS, this may turn out to be something to watch on future model runs. It's too far out for my liking, just throwing this out there though. It was close of having a winter event, 10th-11th window.
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Im gonna throw this out for the new people and to remind us older folks. The ensemble mean is a conglomerate of all the individual ensemble runs. For instance in the long range, if a third of the runs has the system on the first, a third on the second and a third on the third, the mean will skew the trough on all three days when in actuality the trough may be only on the third.

That is simplified, but it gives an idea. A ensemble mean run showing mostly torch or cold in the long range may be the mean skewing the pattern over a week when it may only last a day or two.
 
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Does anyone else not see the potential this has? Coastal low Check if that high pressure didn’t slide off and was a little stronger this could be golden. Plenty of time to change to something good right?


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Jessy89 said:
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Does anyone else not see the potential this has? Coastal low Check if that high pressure didn’t slide off and was a little stronger this could be golden. Plenty of time to change to something good right?


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Potential yes, cold enough air is the issue. As of now it looks like another great set up in the wrong month.


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Storm tracks seem to suggest good wintery opportunities for the apps and interior NE. We thread the needle between feast or famine along the I-95 corridor. Looks seasonably cool but not wintery for most of us. In other words, a normal December.


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Jessy89 said:
aa59bac8ecf34b6a4eafd1a3b346c16b.jpg


Does anyone else not see the potential this has? Coastal low Check if that high pressure didn’t slide off and was a little stronger this could be golden. Plenty of time to change to something good right?


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That storm likely won't verify. 354 hours GFS..
 
-NAO starting to appear around this time frame on the gefs, also that big cyclone around the Aleutians, even if the -NAO developes, it’ll at least keep things “seasonal”, not the worse pattern for overrunning, the EPS on the other hand looked warmer and shows the southeast ridge more and matches the MJO, i agree more with the EPS...11F47B08-B81A-4A3C-9804-2A3CEF9D4B71.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
-NAO starting to appear around this time frame on the gefs, also that big cyclone around the Aleutians, even if the -NAO developes, it’ll at least keep things “seasonal”, not the worse pattern for overrunning, the EPS on the other hand looked warmer and shows the southeast ridge more and matches the MJO, i agree more with the EPS...View attachment 26676
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These anticyclonic wave breaks from underneath towards Greenland usually result in even stronger +NAOs in the long-run because the North Atlantic storm track is being shoved poleward, conservation of angular momentum results in an even stronger jet >>> stronger Icelandic low.
 
Really nice placement of features here:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png

And I guess we can go ahead and punt the first half of December, especially since toward the end of the month and into January, it's supposed to take a turn to colder. But the models better start to agree with the big sustained warm up inside 240 hours pretty soon, or we may have to punt the punt.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Really nice placement of features here:

View attachment 26677

And I guess we can go ahead and punt the first half of December, especially since toward the end of the month and into January, it's supposed to take a turn to colder. But the models better start to agree with the big sustained warm up inside 240 hours pretty soon, or we may have to punt the punt.

View attachment 26678
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Yeah the euro looks promising at 240 but when you roll the eps, pattern just too progressive. That pac ridge has no staying power beyond d10, but it's way out there so anything can certainly happen.

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metwannabe said:
I guess another somewhat positive is at least it's mostly Pacific air, so mild but not hot, as the SER is pretty much kept in check.

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Patterns marked by a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex are often mild & stormy in areas like California, the Desert Southwest, & the Southeastern US.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah the euro looks promising at 240 but when you roll the eps, pattern just too progressive. That pac ridge has no staying power beyond d10, but it's way out there so anything can certainly happen.

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I've seen EPS images posted over the last couple of weeks showing extended periods of nice -EPO and also a turn to zonal in the LR. Maybe it will be right. I'm just saying, what was once thought to be a warm first half of December may not turn out that way. The CFS is certainly honking for a warm week 2, so we'll see.
 
Rain Cold said:
I've seen EPS images posted over the last couple of weeks showing extended periods of nice -EPO and also a turn to zonal in the LR. Maybe it will be right. I'm just saying, what was once thought to be a warm first half of December may not turn out that way. The CFS is certainly honking for a warm week 2, so we'll see.
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My guess is up and down first 3 weeks, below normal followed by above to at or above.... I'm banking on somewhere around Christmas week a turn for the better. Just a wannabe guess

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Here's yesterday's 12z EPS. Doesn't scream bitter cold and snowstorms, but I've certainly seen MUCH worse patterns rolling into the second half of December. Going to need that -PNA and SE ridge to start showing up soon.

12zEPS.gif.eabeb8ac7d880ab9ec696adb075f7e5b.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Here's yesterday's 12z EPS. Doesn't scream bitter cold and snowstorms, but I've certainly seen MUCH worse patterns rolling into the second half of December. Going to need that -PNA and SE ridge to start showing up soon.

View attachment 26679
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Here’s this mornings run. The lack of blocking isn’t surprising but hoping that changes into Jan. Would be disappointing if we +block Jan/Feb with the favorable combination of solar/qbo/nino. Not sure what it’s going to take to have winter with blocking at this point.

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The CFSv2 forecast for December is going with 1-2C above normal

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This would actually be considered a below average December if you only looked at winters after 2010-11.

#winning?
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KyloG said:
Here’s this mornings run. The lack of blocking isn’t surprising but hoping that changes into Jan. Would be disappointing if we +block Jan/Feb with the favorable combination of solar/qbo/nino. Not sure what it’s going to take to have winter with blocking at this point.

View attachment 26681
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Nice change. It's almost like the models are struggling. Wonder if that look will lock in and hold now?
 
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