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Pattern The Great December Dump

Rain Cold said:
Nice change. It's almost like the models are struggling. Wonder if that look will lock in and hold now?
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Good question, not sure. I am still hopeful things get better mid Jan on.
 
Rain Cold said:
Really nice placement of features here:

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And I guess we can go ahead and punt the first half of December, especially since toward the end of the month and into January, it's supposed to take a turn to colder. But the models better start to agree with the big sustained warm up inside 240 hours pretty soon, or we may have to punt the punt.

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Yeah we’ve been watching this for weeks now and the warmup keeps getting muted a little as we roll forward. The best part is watching people go in on warmth , then back off , then go back in on warmth. It’s a coin flip everyday with some


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Storm5 said:
Yeah we’ve been watching this for weeks now and the warmup keeps getting muted a little as we roll forward. The best part is watching people go in on warmth , then back off , then go back in on warmth. It’s a coin flip everyday with some


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While the upcoming pattern will be AN it will be much cooler than previous December’s. The general pattern from the previous 8 December’s has been one of the warmest patterns you could draw up. If we can avoid that I will consider that a victory.

I could see our temps for Dec being neutral with how wet it could be. Upper Midwest could really win the + departures.


88D17D78-9602-4B45-87A6-40885E8F9950.png51BC6721-A4AF-4E20-800F-31EFD52543F2.png
 
KyloG said:
Overrunning for the win. Pouring rain.

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Meanwhile on the other side
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Rain Cold said:
Here's yesterday's 12z EPS. Doesn't scream bitter cold and snowstorms, but I've certainly seen MUCH worse patterns rolling into the second half of December. Going to need that -PNA and SE ridge to start showing up soon.

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The EPS has been largely advertising this look since 11/26, maybe earlier. So it’s definitely a good period to watch and the first half of Dec isn’t written off yet. I’m still hopeful we get a few nice setups in Dec even if it’s largely just +1C above normal, that’s not bad. Close to near normal there. Ridges always tend to overwhelm troughs even if we get a few rolling through. Folks may think we need a ridge to dominate for the CFSv2 look and that’s simply not true.


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SD said:
Meanwhile on the other side
312e7ab6d4c5779a17f59b5a98bbc981.jpg


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If you could change the color scheme a little bit and bump the echoes on the eastern side north a tad, it would pass for a mid-winter correlation coefficient snapshot.
 
Jon said:
The EPS has been largely advertising this look since 11/26, maybe earlier. So it’s definitely a good period to watch and the first half of Dec isn’t written off yet. I’m still hopeful we get a few nice setups in Dec even if it’s largely just +1C above normal, that’s not bad. Close to near normal there. Ridges always tend to overwhelm troughs even if we get a few rolling through. Folks may think we need a ridge to dominate for the CFSv2 look and that’s simply not true.


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Yeah that's what I was thinking too. A degree or two above average could certainly yield a chance or two for some wintry weather. I like some of the things I've seen this fall so far. We'll see how things carry into winter. I'm not discouraged for December, as long as we're not consistently seeing an unending bad pattern set up -- the kind that takes weeks to get out of.
 
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So how long do we all think it is going to take to get the MJO to rotate back around to favorable 7 and 8?

Mid February ?
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Don't sleep on the system moving along the gulf coast on Friday. I believe it will shear out, but it could bring some wintry weather to the favored areas in western NC, if it stays strong enough.
 
Doesn’t sheer out, but it does rain!0C5ACB17-70AE-4090-8137-5698FEA5684F.png
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
So how long do we all think it is going to take to get the MJO to rotate back around to favorable 7 and 8?

Mid February ?
ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif
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When you’re contending with a hefty Indian Ocean “standing wave”, you often end up with nearly stationary tropical forcing. Hopefully we take a break from it in January but even if we don’t at least by late January & February the resulting pattern from Indian Ocean convection doesn’t suck anymore
 
Fountainguy97 said:
48hr HRRR has some convective snow showers pretty far south

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I've been mentioning that rain/snow mix could reach pretty far south Monday AM on some of my previous posts. I wonder if it's possible that a thread will be made for this? Even though, this isn't looking like a big event but it's still snow outside of the mountains.

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WxWatch said:
I've been mentioning that rain/snow mix could reach pretty far south Monday AM on some of my previous posts. I wonder if it's possible that a thread will be made for this? Even though, this isn't looking like a big event but it's still snow outside of the mountains.

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I would think that you would need a pretty big storm system in order to create a thread. What's the point in creating a thread for something so minor ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I would think that you would need a pretty big storm system in order to create a thread. What's the point in creating a thread for something so minor ?
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A thread don't have to be made. I just thought one would be made since models are showing snow outside of the mountains and that the discussion won't interfere with the December pattern discussion.

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Webberweather53 said:
Pretty classic nino pattern as one would expect from the huge Gulf of Alaska trough that shows up during the 2nd week of Dec. I’ll gladly take the rain after how dry the autumn ended up here
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Web, what do you see that might disrupt the December pattern in a favorable way? Throw us a bone....
 
The 12Z EPS has the SE US only 1-2 F warmer than normal for the first half of Dec...not bad at all. (see image below). If has slightly B to near N for 12/1-5, near N to slightly A for 12/6-10 with some chill interspersed, and A for 12/11-15.

Looking back at Decembers to 2014, they actually haven't been as warm in the first half as the 2nd half in general. Will 2019 finally break that pattern or not? Per the gold standard of ensembles, the EPS, there's no indication of that very late in its last 2 runs although there's plenty of time for that to change. Regardless, get out and enjoy the nice chill coming up in the first half of this week!

12Z 11/30 EPS: 1st half of Dececmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015.png
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has the SE US only 1-2 F warmer than normal for the first half of Dec...not bad at all. (see image below). If has slightly B to near N for 12/1-5, near N to slightly A for 12/6-10 with some chill interspersed, and A for 12/11-15.

Looking back at Decembers to 2014, they actually haven't been as warm in the first half as the 2nd half in general. Will 2019 finally break that pattern or not? Per the gold standard of ensembles, the EPS, there's no indication of that very late in its last 2 runs although there's plenty of time for that to change.

12Z 11/30 EPS: 1st half of DecView attachment 26708
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Warm biased EPS looks pretty average..I don’t hate it. Thanks for sharing the map ??
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Web, what do you see that might disrupt the December pattern in a favorable way? Throw us a bone....
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One way I envision that we could really stir the pot sometime around early January or the very end of Dec would be to have a convectively coupled kelvin wave dislodge itself from the Indian Ocean standing wave at the same time a -NPO/-EPO flip occurs. This scenario would basically set us up w/ Siberian air being dumped into North America (thanks to the -NPO/-EPO) coupled w/ an active southern stream whose westerly momentum & moisture would be in large part supplied by the eastward moving CC Kelvin Wave. The very basic ingredients would thus likely be in place for a legitimate winter storm in the southern US. It's a hypothetical scenario yes but one we can certainly hope for way down the road. I don't see us getting anything substantial in at least the next 2.5-3 weeks, the momentum transports & corroborating response from the larger scale circulation attributable to mountain torque events typically take ~2-3 weeks to run its course. Henceforth, we're no less than 3 weeks away from even contemplating a -NPO flip
 
Webberweather53 said:
*find the most extreme example of cold following a SSWE & run away with it, even if this SSWE actually doesn't materialize in the first place*.
Smh what a clown

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Atleast we witnessed a miracle, and seen him have a warm winter outlook, now he’s back to the JB we know and love!?
 
The GEFS hasn’t been doing well in general down here in the E US. Why does he still give it credibility even after he acknowledges that it has been far too quick with a major strat warming? Has the EPS also been showing a major strat warming?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Atleast we witnessed a miracle, and seen him have a warm winter outlook, now he’s back to the JB we know and love!?
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It really wasn’t warm per se in the SE but just a little warmer than normal (+1 to +2 for the warmest in most of the SE I think, which would be as cold or colder than the last few winters), which indeed is warm for him. Also, he still had it quite cold further north if I recall correctly.
 
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