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Pattern The Great December Dump

IF is the biggest word in the English language, but IF the LR GFS is in the ballpark, then we could be in business after the first two weeks of December; at least it seems to want to improve the NPAC flow. We'll see.
 
WxWatch said:
Yes, for now it does, but things can shift further south. The stage is still in the preliminary (rough idea) stage for the 10th-11th time frame as it's 8-9 days away.
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They could. Usually, the GFS is too suppressive in it's longer range panels. That's not always the case, but I have found it to happen more often than not. I would feel better to start to see the PV pressed southward by blocking in the NAO domain. That would be one of the times where I would have more of a tendency to buy into a scenario where things stay/shift southward through time.

Either way, I'm happy if we can lay down a snow pack to our north and west. That bodes well for later.
 
WxWatch said:
The 10th-11th really has my attention now. Big snow event is looking like a possibility, strong pacific jet and polar jet are coming together. This is an indication of a winter event and possibly a significant event. These type of set-ups can bring lots of snow. Warm moist air coming from the pacific, while cold deep air pushes south and east. View attachment 26803View attachment 26804
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Noticed that as well. Need the STJ TO WAKE UP and the cold air is right where we want it.


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WxWatch said:
Yes, for now it does, but things can shift further south. The stage is still in the preliminary (rough idea) stage for the 10th-11th time frame as it's 8-9 days away.
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Hard to hate this general look. If we can keep this up for the next couple of months, it’s bound to
happen for somebody B911B49E-81C3-4B15-84FA-01626B9E917B.png
 
WxWatch said:
The 10th-11th really has my attention now. Big snow event is looking like a possibility, strong pacific jet and polar jet are coming together. This is an indication of a winter event and possibly a significant event. These type of set-ups can bring lots of snow. Warm moist air coming from the pacific, while cold deep air pushes south and east. View attachment 26803View attachment 26804
Click to expand...
I love your passion man, when it comes to winter weather in the south, we can only hope for some magic. I really hope we can see something out of this. Keep doing what you do, great job.
 
Impressive temp gradient being modeled for next week. Have to flip the AC back on. Nighttime low in the mid 60's and daytime highs approaching 80F.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f-5979200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_max6-6022400.png
 
accu35 said:
I love your passion man, when it comes to winter weather in the south, we can only hope for some magic. I really hope we can see something out of this. Keep doing what you do, great job.
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Thanks! Yeah man, I have deep passion for winter weather forecasting/predicting.

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Webberweather53 said:
12z Euro has some snow mixing in down to the I-40 corridor over Tennessee at day 8 but that's about it.
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It looks like it would be interesting for interior areas on day 10; storm coming up from the gulf with a strong wedge of cold/dry air. But that's day 10... and if you looked at the details (just for fun) the high looks to be heading too far eastward.
 
KyloG said:
Impressive temp gradient being modeled for next week. Have to flip the AC back on. Nighttime low in the mid 60's and daytime highs approaching 80F.

View attachment 26814

View attachment 26813
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But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
 
D10 75F Euro prog #d10torch100%nowayitcanbewrongright?

D0 48F current obs #ohnotorchwinterfailwe'reallscrewed
 
Tarheel1 said:
But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
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Warm biased (giggity) Euro was only showing mid 60’s in the upstate. Don’t worry about our rivals to the east. They are built to withstand 80’s in mid December!
 
Tarheel1 said:
But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
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Who said those temps would actually happen, and even if they do, last all month?
 
FallsLake said:
It looks like it would be interesting for interior areas on day 10; storm coming up from the gulf with a strong wedge of cold/dry air. But that's day 10... and if you looked at the details (just for fun) the high looks to be heading too far eastward.
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Yeah it really depends on the timing of this s/w that enters California in about 5-6 days & the preceding cold press. If we can get a bigger shot of cold air &/or the s/w doesn't dig quite as much into the southern US as the Euro shows, it could be game on.

ecmwf_z500a_us_fh144-240.gif
 
Tarheel1 said:
But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
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That's why it's never a good idea to take in what these models show beyond 7-10 days. The percentage of accuracy is much greater on these models in the short to mid term. Long range, it could go either way.

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Good news for torch haters: the 12Z EPS is cooler than the prior run for 12/11-15 in the SE. It is now solidly B rather than barely B on 12/11-12, though not near the MB of the 12Z GEFS. Also, the torch of 12/13-15 on the 0Z EPS has been cooled to only a semi-torch on the 12Z. Finally, a baby step or two colder was taken by the mighty EPS! I'll take this run!
 
KyloG said:
Another battle....let’s see who wins.

View attachment 26821View attachment 26822
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They're almost the exact opposite lol. I'd actually take either one, the Euro we get severe weather & a nice spring day or two, we keep chances of wintry weather around w/ the GEFS. Unfortunately, in between (i.e. cold rain) is usually what ends up verifying :(
 
For the 2nd year in a row I’ve received 2 minor snow events by the first week of December. In fact last season I even got freezing rain after the 2 minor snowfalls a few weeks later. unfortunately it didn’t matter as we all know how the rest of the winter played out for most Last year. But this is a new season and I have a feeling this winter will be better than last!!

This is what I woke up to this morning.
 

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Webberweather53 said:
They're almost the exact opposite lol. I'd actually take either one, the Euro we get severe weather & a nice spring day or two, we keep chances of wintry weather around w/ the GEFS. Unfortunately, in between (i.e. cold rain) is usually what ends up verifying :(
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As cold biased as the GEFS obviously is, the only reason I'd give it credence here & not immediately throw it away is because we've seen that pattern ad nauseam the last several years and the EPS is sometimes too quick to eject the E-SE Canada vortex out of the continent. I'd still personally take the EPS here
 
Webberweather53 said:
As cold biased as the GEFS obviously is, the only reason I'd give it credence here & not immediately throw it away is because we've seen that pattern ad nauseam the last several years and the EPS is sometimes too quick to eject the E-SE Canada vortex out of the continent. I'd still personally take the EPS here
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Yeah it seems if we are going to do any shoveling this winter we need to hope for the 2015 route.

Which the last 2 weeks of Feb 2015 was really good.

compday.9vrj1R3wwR.gif
 
Wowza! love that HP configuration and precip shield. Though, I don't like the H5 look. It won't do anything crazy. In the way of snow, at least.
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I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.

Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.

Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.
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It did nail that December storm right?


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