pcbjr
Member
out of the gulf will be your ticket ... maybe everyone's ... maybe ...
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
The precipitation pattern is pretty good and the propensity for southern-tracking systems and coastals is definitely a good thing. We really need to get pretty deep into December before we worry too much about frozen precip. If we continue to see the precip/storm trends that we're seeing now, I agree with you about our chances.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well we’re literally a few days from December lol
NoSnowATL
Member
Good video to watch and I agree with 99%. Best part is around 10:30ish...
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pcbjr
Member
Good video to watch and I agree with 99%. Best part is around 10:30ish...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Link ... much worth watching ...
Beautiful late November sky over Southeast Wake Co.
If you squint, you can almost see the gradient!
Happy Thanksgiving, from your friendly GFS fantasy clipper!
? But I don’t even get good old fashioned rain? Is this really what it has come to?
MichaelJ
Member
What I meant to say is that by December 10th the CFSv2 will be close to showing the actual December temps, what it shows in November will likely be wrong. Seems most every month it gets the following month wrong as a forecast but it's hind cast is pretty good
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The cfs forecasts of the following months temperature at the end of the preceding month are actually not bad at all, there are innumerable examples of thisWhat I meant to say is that by December 10th the CFSv2 will be close to showing the actual December temps, what it shows in November will likely be wrong. Seems most every month it gets the following month wrong as a forecast but it's hind cast is pretty good
Tiny bit of cape, very low freezing level.... wonder if I can squeeze out some graupel Monday?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There are certainly instances where the CFSv2 monthly forecasts at the end of the month bust, but the last 2 forecasts for October & November at the end of September and October respectively have been excellent.
Hopefully something to this
It isn't getting better for Dec as we close out the month.
It isn't getting better for Dec as we close out the month.
pcbjr
Member
You mean we don’t want all of earth’s cold air bottled up at the pole?..?? At least it’s on the right side of the globe..Am I wrong in thinking this would bode well down the road if we can get that vortex to spin and strengthen towards the pole before winter actually starts?
Honestly, I don't see anything that bodes well for the immediate future. Hope is climo takes over for February. Hope I am wrong though and it's sooner.
3 backloads in a row! Awesome
Jon
Member
Here’s a food CFSv2 example of a flip cold the last 3 days of runs that actually verified. This model can be run the last 3 days of the prior month and verify just as well.
So yeah, not a good sign it got rid of the cold trends to end the month. We’ll be lucky if this trends near normal, but history tells you to expect a warm dec...
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So yeah, not a good sign it got rid of the cold trends to end the month. We’ll be lucky if this trends near normal, but history tells you to expect a warm dec...
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk