Pretty good snowstorm up towards Detroit
Pretty good snowstorm up towards Detroit
It went poof young man?What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? ? Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. ??![]()
I know it would be that’s why I don’t be living my life from run to run.It went poof young man?. I would take 1-2 inches snow all winter and be content all winter.
It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.I know it would be that’s why I don’t be living my life from run to run.
Well..only since you asked. Surface was not wintry at 00z, however 18z was a total train wreck looking at H5. 00z actually has some features indicative of southern snow. Just nothing blue and colorful on surface maps...oh yeah, and it’s only 288 hours away..but here I am talking about it anyway ??What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? ? Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. ??![]()
Euro gave me 32” of snow inside 200hr last December..I don’t trust any model..Hell I don’t even trust the radar..I sat under dark blue returns for 9 hours two years ago and looked out my bedroom window and watched it rain all night..wounds heal but scars last a lifetimeIt isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.
The 0Z Euro is doing an impersonation of an FV3 tall western ridge.
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871
hmm. LOLHard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
Regarding the bolded, the 0Z EPS has officially given up the ghost, folks.
ouch.. you're the groucho marx of meteorologists...Really nice to see the warm pattern continually being kicked down the road on successive EPS runs. Doesn't begin to turn legitimately mild until after mid month.
Wow, I notice warm air keeps getting pushed back.. it’s been pretty chilly the last month in the SE except for just a few above/near average days.Really nice to see the warm pattern continually being kicked down the road on successive EPS runs. Doesn't begin to turn legitimately mild until after mid month.
Usually when EPS is this far out it will continue to cool on incoming runs.
Verbatim there isn't a whole lot of support for the system at day 9 on the EPS, but certainly beyond ~ day 12 ish on the tail end of this big cold shot there's some snowier solutions.
Member 21 would be nice, 2-3 separate winter storms in 5 days.
In all seriousness though, it's hard not to get at least a little excited here given the active storm track we'll already have in place
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I'm wondering if the models are struggling with the mjo and the forcing there?I definitely thought we were going to take a hiatus beginning around Dec 10 & lasting thru most of the month even just several days ago. You can basically throw that idea in the trash.
I'm wondering if the models are struggling with the mjo and the forcing there?