Pretty good snowstorm up towards Detroit
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Golf7575
Member
0zgfs is probably an outlier, but it shows a 1050mb high coming down the plains. Highs in the teens in my area would be rather chilly.
What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? ? Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. ??
Golf7575
Member
It went poof young man?What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? ? Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. ??
. I would take 1-2 inches snow all winter and be content all winter. We are further south than most places.
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I know it would be that’s why I don’t be living my life from run to run.It went poof young man?
Golf7575
Member
It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.
Well..only since you asked. Surface was not wintry at 00z, however 18z was a total train wreck looking at H5. 00z actually has some features indicative of southern snow. Just nothing blue and colorful on surface maps...oh yeah, and it’s only 288 hours away..but here I am talking about it anyway ??What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? ? Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. ??
Euro gave me 32” of snow inside 200hr last December..I don’t trust any model..Hell I don’t even trust the radar..I sat under dark blue returns for 9 hours two years ago and looked out my bedroom window and watched it rain all night..wounds heal but scars last a lifetime
GEFS mean seems to have expanded again refuses to back down
yep matches the GFS at this time, transient -NAO aswell, beautiful ridge poking up towards the poles, these patterns are very close for something wintry in the SE us when it comes to overrunning as that “SE ridge” gets shoved eastward, now before that pattern looks a little interesting for severe
Something is telling me December is about to switch up on us real quick ... for anyone thinking it was going to be a blow torch .. this could knock anything like that from happening
Wow, warm 850s that far north from the strength of that ridge around AK, and while it’s not in the SE, that’s some impressive cold in Canada/northern US, even if it doesn’t make it completely here and that first interesting setup fails, if you get a big artic high up in the NE with right timing as that cold air advects east, things get interesting, ofc it’s one run but it’s a good run and a very interesting one 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Day 10 Euro ends w/ a an aptly timed southern stream shortwave running into a huge arctic airmass in the E US. If this run played out a few more days, it would probably be an I-40/64 special.
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
Regarding the bolded, the 0Z EPS has officially given up the ghost, folks.
hmm. LOL
Brent
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really nice to see the warm pattern continually being kicked down the road on successive EPS runs. Doesn't begin to turn legitimately mild until after mid month.
ouch.. you're the groucho marx of meteorologists...
Wow, I notice warm air keeps getting pushed back.. it’s been pretty chilly the last month in the SE except for just a few above/near average days.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Impressive. GEFS >>> #winning?
Usually when EPS is this far out it will continue to cool on incoming runs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
EPS goes with the Dec 2009 look here in the US w/ widespread cold anomalies nearly from coast-coast. Obviously, there's no huge -NAO this time as there was then but as the old saying goes "there's more than one way to skin a cat".
Dare I ask, are we actually going to see a below normal December for once? Still not terribly likely but have to like our chances if we get a few big shots of arctic air the next few weeks and the vortex stays around in SE Canada.
I definitely thought we'd be warming relative to normal up by the 2nd week of the month. I'll be more than happy to be dead wrong because I've grown sick & tired of mild Decembers
Dare I ask, are we actually going to see a below normal December for once? Still not terribly likely but have to like our chances if we get a few big shots of arctic air the next few weeks and the vortex stays around in SE Canada.
I definitely thought we'd be warming relative to normal up by the 2nd week of the month. I'll be more than happy to be dead wrong because I've grown sick & tired of mild Decembers
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Geez, haven’t seen the gefs ensembles this lit for wintry precip in the SE in a long time, many have a icy signal and some have snow around that 180-300 hr timeframe, mostly Ice tho, most show a anafront or even some overrunning with the first system, then after shows another system with many solutions (miller B/CAD, overrunning, cutters with wintry precip that starts out with CAD) interesting signal for sure, makes sense tho if we have leftover strong high pressure and a SW decides to kick into that 
Jon
Member
Yeah, this isn’t a warm pattern. Awesome to see in December.
Models aren’t done with this one. And a forecaster asked me if I was “a fan of fiction” tweeting on this pattern on 11/28...having that attitude when both ensemble models had a strong signal at the same pattern is what’s wrong with folks...
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Verbatim there isn't a whole lot of support for the system at day 9 on the EPS, but certainly beyond ~ day 12 ish on the tail end of this big cold shot there's some snowier solutions.
Member 21 would be nice, 2-3 separate winter storms in 5 days.
In all seriousness though, it's hard not to get at least a little excited here given the active storm track we'll already have in place
Member 21 would be nice, 2-3 separate winter storms in 5 days.
In all seriousness though, it's hard not to get at least a little excited here given the active storm track we'll already have in place
Jon
Member
Lol I just tweeted the same. The 13-17th period, if being modeled correctly, should deserve some excitement and hopefully we will grab one to track. I was thinking yesterday when graupel was falling...this winter feels different.
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Now, is this a woof or a womp or a oof or a gah? I can't keep track of all of the official terminology. 
Anyway, I'm glad to see warm patterns keep pushing back in time and the warm Euro starting to maybe cave in a bit. I am still not ready to go all in on a winter storm pattern yet, but getting deeper into the month, seeing the PV over on our side, seeing the WAR displaced north of where it usually is, and seeing a strong STJ continuing is encouraging. As some of you have said, this kind of pattern can pop a storm threat pretty quickly. But I'd feel a bit more confident in a specific period if I saw signs of a west-based -NAO developing. Maybe it will, at some point down the line.
Anyway, I'm glad to see warm patterns keep pushing back in time and the warm Euro starting to maybe cave in a bit. I am still not ready to go all in on a winter storm pattern yet, but getting deeper into the month, seeing the PV over on our side, seeing the WAR displaced north of where it usually is, and seeing a strong STJ continuing is encouraging. As some of you have said, this kind of pattern can pop a storm threat pretty quickly. But I'd feel a bit more confident in a specific period if I saw signs of a west-based -NAO developing. Maybe it will, at some point down the line.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I definitely thought we were going to take a hiatus beginning around Dec 10 & lasting thru most of the month even just several days ago. You can basically throw that idea in the trash.
I'm wondering if the models are struggling with the mjo and the forcing there?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The evolution of these planetary-scale features is often driven by upscale growth from individual synoptic-scale events whose predictability is often limited to several days to a week or so. This basically seems like a case where a few minute details in the way the wave breaks were represented over the North Pacific have dramatically changed the outcome. The broader scale planetary waves didn't change much.
Errors in those synoptic-scale events are being amplified by the fact that we have the main lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex in our own backyard. Even minor modification to the North Pacific pattern evolution means massive alterations in sensible weather as we're now beginning to realize.
Gotta love the idea of the +PNA trending stronger in time.
WXinCanton
Member
Very nice turnaround in the models as of late. I like where we are headed!
Warning: As great as the models are trending (I especially like the EPS trend to less warmth in the SE near mid-month), don’t get your heart too set as the recent past tells us that the trend could continue too far to the point where the SER takes back over in future runs and the runs warm back up. Don’t get too complacent as the models have and will again break your heart. But hopefully not this time.
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