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Pattern The Great December Dump

What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? ? Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. ??‍♂️
Well..only since you asked. Surface was not wintry at 00z, however 18z was a total train wreck looking at H5. 00z actually has some features indicative of southern snow. Just nothing blue and colorful on surface maps...oh yeah, and it’s only 288 hours away..but here I am talking about it anyway ??‍♂️ BBC65819-17BD-4609-B1F7-315A1D66425E.pngA4A69962-C332-4D99-8C65-AF2D802A2EE0.png
 
It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.
Euro gave me 32” of snow inside 200hr last December..I don’t trust any model..Hell I don’t even trust the radar..I sat under dark blue returns for 9 hours two years ago and looked out my bedroom window and watched it rain all night..wounds heal but scars last a lifetime
 
GEFS mean seems to have expanded again refuses to back down
0DAF1DF5-9FE2-4BF6-998D-D20745A8C4F5.jpeg
 
The 0Z Euro is doing an impersonation of an FV3 tall western ridge.

yep matches the GFS at this time, transient -NAO aswell, beautiful ridge poking up towards the poles, these patterns are very close for something wintry in the SE us when it comes to overrunning as that “SE ridge” gets shoved eastward, now before that pattern looks a little interesting for severe C69E4EF3-4A79-42CA-85A5-D2349C3B9C0C.pngD89CD205-8D0E-4B65-9252-FBB058E767FF.png
 
Wow, warm 850s that far north from the strength of that ridge around AK, and while it’s not in the SE, that’s some impressive cold in Canada/northern US, even if it doesn’t make it completely here and that first interesting setup fails, if you get a big artic high up in the NE with right timing as that cold air advects east, things get interesting, ofc it’s one run but it’s a good run and a very interesting one 2316A83C-6E28-47DA-81A5-9F31290E847E.jpeg
 
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting F98FF557-96F1-408D-B930-237A4B9A12BF.gif
 
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871

Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
 
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871

Regarding the bolded, the 0Z EPS has officially given up the ghost, folks.
 
Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
hmm. LOL
 
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