This is going to be a long winter if YOU already taking what the GFS is showing post day 10 verbatim???It did nail that December storm right?
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This is going to be a long winter if YOU already taking what the GFS is showing post day 10 verbatim![]()
I guess if the current solution above change on 0z Gfs from the above solution..everyone will be on here saying IT WILL BE BACK? I love Southernwx forum but I can’t get how you guys do this every year. ?Yep because that’s what I do. You’re so right.
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Fwiw it looks like the GEFS is agreeing with the GFS. I already know not gonna happen just putting it out there
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Thanks! If things continue to look promising, I want to start the thread if nobody beats me to it.
I guess if the current solution above change on 0z Gfs from the above solution..everyone will be on here saying IT WILL BE BACKI love Southernwx forum but I can’t get how you guys do this every year.
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I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.
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I'm not jumping ahead to that system just yet. I'm focusing on the 10th-11th time period for the possibility of a significant snow storm.I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.
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Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.
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So you think we get skunked for December?Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
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When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.
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I seriously doubt any potential of any snow from this time frame. Not only is that jet stream cherry picked in the ideal position from one run, it's from the GFS and the GFS has a heavy tenancy to be too progressive and cold. Realistically, this will either become a cutter due to the introduction of the SER or it'll be too positive to produce. The latter is most likely.A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
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When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.
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I think the best question to ask is what other models besides the GFS support this. I wouldn't put any stock into this until the Euro is on board.Would this bring snow outside the mountains?
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I get what you are saying except for the "deep cold air in place" part....... 850's are above freezing and the surface is near 50 degrees at that time...... For those of us east of the mountains, it looks like just a frontal passage. What areas are you targeting?A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.
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This guys is the best... one second I’m reading thinking all hope is doomed then I hit one of ur posts and I’m about damn sure we’re about to get a snow storm... for real tho I love ur analysis and constant updates ... it keeps me alive in this thread sometimesA significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.
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Yes, that set-up would bring snow outside of the mountains.Would this bring snow outside the mountains?
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At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.I get what you are saying except for the "deep cold air in place" part....... 850's are above freezing and the surface is near 50 degrees at that time...... For those of us east of the mountains, it looks like just a frontal passage. What areas are you targeting?
“ I’ve scored off of that look 100 times!”I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.
Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.
Don’t sleep on December! You might miss some cool rains, and maybe some cold ones!?So you think we get skunked for December?
If the temps aren't remotely close why even bother looking at it? If it was in the 30s then maybe but 50s can't change easily without uprooting the entire pattern modeled.At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.
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He’s been a bit under the weather lately, really!So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
Robert has really went downhill lately. Can’t believe he posted that over inflated snow map for the mountain event that just occurred on his FB. And he says things like 6-8 warm weeks are not likely....umm idk about most of y’all but I’ve never seen that long of a heat wave in the winter here. He needs money badly.Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB