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Pattern The Great December Dump

Fwiw it looks like the GEFS is agreeing with the GFS. I already know not gonna happen just putting it out there
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I love clown maps as much as the next guy but that’s got to be ice for those east. No way do you get two foot totals cutting northeast through the heart of Tennessee then get a foot in north and South Carolina ??‍♂️ ?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I guess if the current solution above change on 0z Gfs from the above solution..everyone will be on here saying IT WILL BE BACK I love Southernwx forum but I can’t get how you guys do this every year.
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I have a secret, most of the time we are just joking.


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I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.


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Jessy89 said:
I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.


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I'm not jumping ahead to that system just yet. I'm focusing on the 10th-11th time period for the possibility of a significant snow storm.

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Yes specifics this far out should not be looked at .. but one can’t ignore the fact that the pattern looks to be setting up for some sort of ice event in the medium range ... certainly wouldn’t put any more stock into anything more than that.. more than likely an ice event with the big clashes of air masses and the warmth in the upper levels we will see with a huge cold high filtering in dry cold air at the surface ... recipe for fun... I mean trouble ...
 
Jessy89 said:
I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.
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Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
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So you think we get skunked for December?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
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You do understand the lights out comment is in the BS thread right? We understand it’s not going to happen but it kills time and pretty to look at.


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BirdManDoomW said:
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
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Can we just take it a model run at a time. Right now the possibility of a ice storm is on the table. Will it happen 80 percent no. But we should at least say it’s December so it’s at least possible.


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You guys, I know models look good, but, I'm still going to stay consistent with a warmer, milder early December.
Why you may ask?

Taking a look at the MJO, as highlighted in a previous post https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-5#post-212237

Still looking at the latest runs, the same thing with a standing wave between 30-60 degrees E.
This is largely supporting a phase 3 pattern. As long as that wave is there, we shouldn't move into the warmer phases so that is good.



chi200.cfs.south.png

Phase 3 is a blowtorch but isn't crazy
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850s aren't beautiful, map courtesy of Webb's previous post https://southernwx.com/community/threads/nippy-november.639/page-68#post-211062
whmjo3.ndj.t850composite.web.png
 
Im not trying to cancel winter in any form or faction but I've been let down to many times and im not expecting anything besides rain and warm temps as usual especially for my part of the area... So I'm not getting happy until i see flakes falling and accumulating.... Not trying to be a debby downer folks carry on
 
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_32.jpg
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


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WxWatch said:
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
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Would this bring snow outside the mountains?


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WxWatch said:
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
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I seriously doubt any potential of any snow from this time frame. Not only is that jet stream cherry picked in the ideal position from one run, it's from the GFS and the GFS has a heavy tenancy to be too progressive and cold. Realistically, this will either become a cutter due to the introduction of the SER or it'll be too positive to produce. The latter is most likely.
 
WxWatch said:
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
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I get what you are saying except for the "deep cold air in place" part....... 850's are above freezing and the surface is near 50 degrees at that time...... For those of us east of the mountains, it looks like just a frontal passage. What areas are you targeting?
 
WxWatch said:
A significant snow storm is looking like a possibility during the 10th-11th time frame (8-9 days away at the time of this post) I have added some important things to look for in the coming days. I do think the convergence point between the polar jet and subtropical jet will trend further south and east. In fact, the convergence point is further south and east on the GFS verses it's 12z run.
View attachment 26853
When the polar jet and subtropical jet converge, this would trigger convective moisture. Deep cold air would be in place at the same time, so heavy snowfall would occur. Also due to the convergence, very strong upper level winds would occur as well. The convergence is one of the big factors at play that would generate a significant snow event.


View attachment 26855
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This guys is the best... one second I’m reading thinking all hope is doomed then I hit one of ur posts and I’m about damn sure we’re about to get a snow storm... for real tho I love ur analysis and constant updates ... it keeps me alive in this thread sometimes
 
I went outside today without protection for my ears from the wind, that was a mistake as it was so windy and dry that my ears began to hurt from it.

The air temp wasn't that cold though this afternoon.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I get what you are saying except for the "deep cold air in place" part....... 850's are above freezing and the surface is near 50 degrees at that time...... For those of us east of the mountains, it looks like just a frontal passage. What areas are you targeting?
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At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.

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Rain Cold said:
I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.

Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.
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“ I’ve scored off of that look 100 times!” ☃️
 
WxWatch said:
At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.

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If the temps aren't remotely close why even bother looking at it? If it was in the 30s then maybe but 50s can't change easily without uprooting the entire pattern modeled.
 
Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB
 
So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
 
Rain Cold said:
So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
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He’s been a bit under the weather lately, really!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB
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Robert has really went downhill lately. Can’t believe he posted that over inflated snow map for the mountain event that just occurred on his FB. And he says things like 6-8 warm weeks are not likely....umm idk about most of y’all but I’ve never seen that long of a heat wave in the winter here. He needs money badly.
 
Maybe someone on here with more knowledge than me can answer this, but when was the last time that the southeast ridge has been held in check this long. It seems like it hasn’t been as big a player in the overall pattern for the last month and I don’t recall anytime over the last few years that could be said. It’s shown up on some ensemble runs around the 10-12 day period but goes away closer to verification
 
A reminder that parts of Alabama got a foot of snow in December two years ago, while the month as a whole may not be cold & stormy or have a perfect pattern, it only takes one instance of all the ingredients mixing together for someone to score.
 
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