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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jon said:
Here’s a food CFSv2 example of a flip cold the last 3 days of runs that actually verified. This model can be run the last 3 days of the prior month and verify just as well.

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So yeah, not a good sign it got rid of the cold trends to end the month. We’ll be lucky if this trends near normal, but history tells you to expect a warm dec...
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Also notice the last few days Alaska is also trending colder (+EPO), another bad sign if you’re hoping for even a normal December around here & definitely raises the chances of (another) torch. Here’s to 9 above normal Decembers in a row. ?
 
There appear to simply be no patterns of any type anymore that lead to a cold first half of winter. Nina, Nino, Neutral, high solar, low solar, +QBO, -QBO, it doesn't matter. It's going to be warm every December. And there's a different reason every December. At some point, it becomes statistically unreasonable to think we understand what the real mechanism is driving this outcome.
 
Rain Cold said:
There appear to simply be no patterns of any type anymore that lead to a cold first half of winter. Nina, Nino, Neutral, high solar, low solar, +QBO, -QBO, it doesn't matter. It's going to be warm every December. And there's a different reason every December. At some point, it becomes statistically unreasonable to think we understand what the real mechanism is driving this outcome.
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The latter point is pretty easy to understand if you acknowledge man made climate change is real and is significantly moving the base state in a milder direction. You don’t get 9 warm Decembers in a row by random chance
 
Rain Cold said:
There appear to simply be no patterns of any type anymore that lead to a cold first half of winter. Nina, Nino, Neutral, high solar, low solar, +QBO, -QBO, it doesn't matter. It's going to be warm every December. And there's a different reason every December. At some point, it becomes statistically unreasonable to think we understand what the real mechanism is driving this outcome.
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But it snowed for a lot of people in the SE, the last 2 December’s, and if it hadn’t been for those unicorns, they would have been totally dumpster fire winters
 
I dont recall the last 2 Decembers being mild. Or maybe the fact they were so snowy tricked me into thinking it was cold.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The latter point is pretty easy to understand if you acknowledge man made climate change is real and is significantly moving the base state in a milder direction. You don’t get 9 warm Decembers in a row by random chance
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You can lump it under climate change, manmade or not. That's probably the general reason, but it doesn't offer a specific reason why it's no longer possible to have a cooler than normal first half of winter.
 
Jon said:
Guys it’s not even December yet...don’t cancel January.


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Calm down, it’s going to be OK, nobody cancelled January or December for that matter. Deep breaths


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Rain Cold said:
You can lump it under climate change, manmade or not. That's probably the general reason, but it doesn't offer a specific reason why it's no longer possible to have a cooler than normal first half of winter.
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It doesn’t? There’s literally no other way to explain the observations of warming than it being man made, natural forcing dictates a cooling or stable climate and warming has continued unabated. As for it not providing a specific reason, when the climate warms, the entire distribution of temperatures for a given region shifts along with it, which also means the probability of below normal temperatures decreases substantially while above average temperatures increase in both frequency and intensity. December is not the only month this has been happening lately, it’s just the most extreme example
 
Webberweather53 said:
Also notice the last few days Alaska is also trending colder (+EPO), another bad sign if you’re hoping for even a normal December around here & definitely raises the chances of (another) torch. Here’s to 9 above normal Decembers in a row.
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I won’t cheer to that, lol. I’ll always hope for a colder than normal December 10 times out of 10. But I know what I expect...


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Tarheel1 said:
That really is the only glimmer of hope, if all of our winter months are going to be AN, atleast we know it still CAN snow!
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Eventually, we’ll reach a point where this won’t occur but most of us will probably not be alive when this finally happens. Even though it can still snow and will be able to for decades to come over the upper south, the air masses that are associated with winter storms of today are at a major disadvantage from those of the “good ol days” because they’re starting out at a warmer initial state over the Arctic.
 
Rain Cold said:
There appear to simply be no patterns of any type anymore that lead to a cold first half of winter. Nina, Nino, Neutral, high solar, low solar, +QBO, -QBO, it doesn't matter. It's going to be warm every December. And there's a different reason every December. At some point, it becomes statistically unreasonable to think we understand what the real mechanism is driving this outcome.
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What’s interesting is we haven’t had a legit snowfall in February since 2015. All of our memorable events the past 4 winters have been in Jan or Dec.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It doesn’t? There’s literally no other way to explain the observations of warming than it being man made, natural forcing dictates a cooling or stable climate and warming has continued unabated. As for it not providing a specific reason, when the climate warms, the entire distribution of temperatures for a given region shifts along with it, which also means the probability of below normal temperatures decreases substantially while above average temperatures increase in both frequency and intensity. December is not the only month this has been happening lately, it’s just the most extreme example
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Just for argument’s sake, that doesn’t explain why November is a solid BN month for us almost every year now? If we can be below normal then, why can’t we be below normal 30 days later? I’m skeptical
 
Webber do you think there will ever come a time when snowfall becomes almost nonexistent in places like Atlanta and Birmingham ? I mean to the point where it only snows once every 20 years?
 
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