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Pattern The Great December Dump

Fwiw it looks like the GEFS is agreeing with the GFS. I already know not gonna happen just putting it out there
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I love clown maps as much as the next guy but that’s got to be ice for those east. No way do you get two foot totals cutting northeast through the heart of Tennessee then get a foot in north and South Carolina ??‍♂️ ?
 
I guess if the current solution above change on 0z Gfs from the above solution..everyone will be on here saying IT WILL BE BACK I love Southernwx forum but I can’t get how you guys do this every year.

I have a secret, most of the time we are just joking.


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I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.


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I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.


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I'm not jumping ahead to that system just yet. I'm focusing on the 10th-11th time period for the possibility of a significant snow storm.

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Yes specifics this far out should not be looked at .. but one can’t ignore the fact that the pattern looks to be setting up for some sort of ice event in the medium range ... certainly wouldn’t put any more stock into anything more than that.. more than likely an ice event with the big clashes of air masses and the warmth in the upper levels we will see with a huge cold high filtering in dry cold air at the surface ... recipe for fun... I mean trouble ...
 
I just hope the people canceling winter is paying attention. Gfs says lights out for most of upstate sc. parts of Georgia.
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Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
 
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.
So you think we get skunked for December?
 
Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.

You do understand the lights out comment is in the BS thread right? We understand it’s not going to happen but it kills time and pretty to look at.


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Color me in the cancelled December department. Comments saying lights out for something far out is a bit overkill. I don’t live by the model run or one particular model. It’s a bit quiet in here for a reason; no true wintry pattern exists in the short to mid range for the Carolinas east of the mtns.

Can we just take it a model run at a time. Right now the possibility of a ice storm is on the table. Will it happen 80 percent no. But we should at least say it’s December so it’s at least possible.


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You guys, I know models look good, but, I'm still going to stay consistent with a warmer, milder early December.
Why you may ask?

Taking a look at the MJO, as highlighted in a previous post https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-great-december-dump.650/page-5#post-212237

Still looking at the latest runs, the same thing with a standing wave between 30-60 degrees E.
This is largely supporting a phase 3 pattern. As long as that wave is there, we shouldn't move into the warmer phases so that is good.



chi200.cfs.south.png

Phase 3 is a blowtorch but isn't crazy
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850s aren't beautiful, map courtesy of Webb's previous post https://southernwx.com/community/threads/nippy-november.639/page-68#post-211062
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Im not trying to cancel winter in any form or faction but I've been let down to many times and im not expecting anything besides rain and warm temps as usual especially for my part of the area... So I'm not getting happy until i see flakes falling and accumulating.... Not trying to be a debby downer folks carry on
 
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