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Pattern The Great December Dump

IF is the biggest word in the English language, but IF the LR GFS is in the ballpark, then we could be in business after the first two weeks of December; at least it seems to want to improve the NPAC flow. We'll see.
 
Yes, for now it does, but things can shift further south. The stage is still in the preliminary (rough idea) stage for the 10th-11th time frame as it's 8-9 days away.
They could. Usually, the GFS is too suppressive in it's longer range panels. That's not always the case, but I have found it to happen more often than not. I would feel better to start to see the PV pressed southward by blocking in the NAO domain. That would be one of the times where I would have more of a tendency to buy into a scenario where things stay/shift southward through time.

Either way, I'm happy if we can lay down a snow pack to our north and west. That bodes well for later.
 
The 10th-11th really has my attention now. Big snow event is looking like a possibility, strong pacific jet and polar jet are coming together. This is an indication of a winter event and possibly a significant event. These type of set-ups can bring lots of snow. Warm moist air coming from the pacific, while cold deep air pushes south and east. View attachment 26803View attachment 26804

Noticed that as well. Need the STJ TO WAKE UP and the cold air is right where we want it.


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Yes, for now it does, but things can shift further south. The stage is still in the preliminary (rough idea) stage for the 10th-11th time frame as it's 8-9 days away.
Hard to hate this general look. If we can keep this up for the next couple of months, it’s bound to
happen for somebody B911B49E-81C3-4B15-84FA-01626B9E917B.png
 
The 10th-11th really has my attention now. Big snow event is looking like a possibility, strong pacific jet and polar jet are coming together. This is an indication of a winter event and possibly a significant event. These type of set-ups can bring lots of snow. Warm moist air coming from the pacific, while cold deep air pushes south and east. View attachment 26803View attachment 26804
I love your passion man, when it comes to winter weather in the south, we can only hope for some magic. I really hope we can see something out of this. Keep doing what you do, great job.
 
I love your passion man, when it comes to winter weather in the south, we can only hope for some magic. I really hope we can see something out of this. Keep doing what you do, great job.
Thanks! Yeah man, I have deep passion for winter weather forecasting/predicting.

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12z Euro has some snow mixing in down to the I-40 corridor over Tennessee at day 8 but that's about it.
It looks like it would be interesting for interior areas on day 10; storm coming up from the gulf with a strong wedge of cold/dry air. But that's day 10... and if you looked at the details (just for fun) the high looks to be heading too far eastward.
 
Impressive temp gradient being modeled for next week. Have to flip the AC back on. Nighttime low in the mid 60's and daytime highs approaching 80F.

View attachment 26814

View attachment 26813
But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
 
D10 75F Euro prog #d10torch100%nowayitcanbewrongright?

D0 48F current obs #ohnotorchwinterfailwe'reallscrewed
 
But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
Warm biased (giggity) Euro was only showing mid 60’s in the upstate. Don’t worry about our rivals to the east. They are built to withstand 80’s in mid December!
 
But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December

Who said those temps would actually happen, and even if they do, last all month?
 
It looks like it would be interesting for interior areas on day 10; storm coming up from the gulf with a strong wedge of cold/dry air. But that's day 10... and if you looked at the details (just for fun) the high looks to be heading too far eastward.

Yeah it really depends on the timing of this s/w that enters California in about 5-6 days & the preceding cold press. If we can get a bigger shot of cold air &/or the s/w doesn't dig quite as much into the southern US as the Euro shows, it could be game on.

ecmwf_z500a_us_fh144-240.gif
 
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