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Pattern The Great December Dump

But everybody is saying Dec wouldn’t torch?? Just normal to slightly above? I mean 60s/80s seems a little torchy for December
That's why it's never a good idea to take in what these models show beyond 7-10 days. The percentage of accuracy is much greater on these models in the short to mid term. Long range, it could go either way.

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Good news for torch haters: the 12Z EPS is cooler than the prior run for 12/11-15 in the SE. It is now solidly B rather than barely B on 12/11-12, though not near the MB of the 12Z GEFS. Also, the torch of 12/13-15 on the 0Z EPS has been cooled to only a semi-torch on the 12Z. Finally, a baby step or two colder was taken by the mighty EPS! I'll take this run!
 
Another battle....let’s see who wins.

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They're almost the exact opposite lol. I'd actually take either one, the Euro we get severe weather & a nice spring day or two, we keep chances of wintry weather around w/ the GEFS. Unfortunately, in between (i.e. cold rain) is usually what ends up verifying :(
 
For the 2nd year in a row I’ve received 2 minor snow events by the first week of December. In fact last season I even got freezing rain after the 2 minor snowfalls a few weeks later. unfortunately it didn’t matter as we all know how the rest of the winter played out for most Last year. But this is a new season and I have a feeling this winter will be better than last!!

This is what I woke up to this morning.
 

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They're almost the exact opposite lol. I'd actually take either one, the Euro we get severe weather & a nice spring day or two, we keep chances of wintry weather around w/ the GEFS. Unfortunately, in between (i.e. cold rain) is usually what ends up verifying :(

As cold biased as the GEFS obviously is, the only reason I'd give it credence here & not immediately throw it away is because we've seen that pattern ad nauseam the last several years and the EPS is sometimes too quick to eject the E-SE Canada vortex out of the continent. I'd still personally take the EPS here
 
As cold biased as the GEFS obviously is, the only reason I'd give it credence here & not immediately throw it away is because we've seen that pattern ad nauseam the last several years and the EPS is sometimes too quick to eject the E-SE Canada vortex out of the continent. I'd still personally take the EPS here

Yeah it seems if we are going to do any shoveling this winter we need to hope for the 2015 route.

Which the last 2 weeks of Feb 2015 was really good.

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Wowza! love that HP configuration and precip shield. Though, I don't like the H5 look. It won't do anything crazy. In the way of snow, at least.
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I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.

Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.
 
I'll take "No way it can cut with that high pressure there" for $1000.

Seriously, when was the last time the GFS was right, dropping a nearly 1050 high into the midwest? I wish it would nail one for once.

It did nail that December storm right?


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