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Pattern The Great December Dump

deltadog03 said:
Don’t want that to be too slow tho. (ULL)
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Was about to say the same thing. Too slow and the high's a goner by the time it cuts west of us. Euro has a tendency for energy to set up camp too long in the SW, so that may be at play a little bit here.
 
If we want more snow we want this thing slower than the Gfs but faster than the euro ... luckily both model biases come into play where euro usually keeps the energy too long while the Gfs usually spits it out too fast... something tells me we are in for some fun 00z model runs
 
The real deal is this...if the models, any of them, have the upper air pattern modeled correctly, we're not looking at a SE snowstorm pattern. It is a Miller B or Cutter/Apps Rubber pattern. If the timing is just right, a winter storm is possible. But the nature of it would most likely feature a lot of ice.

The thing to be optimistic about is that when we are fortunate enough to actually get strong high pressure tracking in a favorable position, we either don't have good cold air to tap and/or we don't have a storm. This time we have both cold air nearby and an active STJ. So, the ingredients actually appear to be there this time. Now we wait.
 
gawxnative said:
Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
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Need good ol’ fashioned 6” powder bomb followed by a quarter inch of ZR on the tail end. That would make up for all the suck this past decade
 
Rain Cold said:
The real deal is this...if the models, any of them, have the upper air pattern modeled correctly, we're not looking at a SE snowstorm pattern. It is a Miller B or Cutter/Apps Rubber pattern. If the timing is just right, a winter storm is possible. But the nature of it would most likely feature a lot of ice.

The thing to be optimistic about is that when we are fortunate enough to actually get strong high pressure tracking in a favorable position, we either don't have good cold air to tap and/or we don't have a storm. This time we have both cold air nearby and an active STJ. So, the ingredients actually appear to be there this time. Now we wait.
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For my area, I’d take an apps runner all day

In all seriousness this isn’t the best looking pattern BUT for December we obviously will take it and be excited when comparing the last few December’s


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
HP configuration/strength continues to get better in the GEFS, 1037 high will do the trick, even if it’s transient, likely not done going up either, a 1037 HP Past hour 200 is very impressive, impressive CAD sig and that “banana high” look View attachment 27015
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A lot of storms have one thing that stays consistent. Most of the time it’s precip, nice to see strong HP for once. Gives me at least a little confidence that more members could be affected rather than the I-85 north CAD favored areas, if anything were to materialize of course.
 
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