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Pattern The Great December Dump

gawxnative said:
Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
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Seriously? Because of one run of an op run 7 days away? Am I missing something? I'm all about being a weenie and geeking out over big winter storm chances, but you would think actual Mets who many folks listen to would know better. Strange.

Perhaps you misinterpreted?
 
SnowNiner said:
Seriously? Because of one run of an op run 7 days away? Am I missing something? I'm all about being a weenie and geeking out over big winter storm chances, but you would think actual Mets who many folks listen to would know better. Strange.

Perhaps you misinterpreted?
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They can’t resist their inner weenie
 
SnowNiner said:
Seriously? Because of one run of an op run 7 days away? Am I missing something? I'm all about being a weenie and geeking out over big winter storm chances, but you would think actual Mets who many folks listen to would know better. Strange.

Perhaps you misinterpreted?
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I just looked Glenn Burns up. He indeed said it was a model run. But did state to be prepared. Can be interpreted many ways. But he got 3200 comments so...
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks for the big post! One thing I would point out is that if you're expecting heavy wet snow, you won't get high ratios. If you're expecting high ratios due to deep cold, the snow will be more powdery in nature. Might be good to incorporate that variable into your model. Might help with predicting or forecasting or estimating (not sure how we're using these terms now??) snow depth.
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I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.

So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.

GFS2mTemp.png

EuroQPF.png

This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!

SnowAmountTempRanges.png
 
WxWatch said:
I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.

So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.

View attachment 27016

View attachment 27017

This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!

View attachment 27018
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It’s fun to look at but I don’t think taking the Wednesday GFS temps and using the EURO Friday QPF map is going to pan out.

If you put a low pressure off the coast on the Wednesday gfs those temps will be much different and warmer most likely.

This pattern definitely favors a CAD ice storm. I’m sure there would be good snow in some areas of a storm were to develop but ice would be a huge threat with this CAD.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
It’s fun to look at but I don’t think taking the Wednesday GFS temps and using the EURO Friday QPF map is going to pan out.

If you put a low pressure off the coast on the Wednesday gfs those temps will be much different and warmer most likely.

This pattern definitely favors a CAD ice storm. I’m sure there would be good snow in some areas of a storm were to develop but ice would be a huge threat with this CAD.
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Your right, but I personally think places other than CAD areas could see something if this were to happen
 
WxWatch said:
I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.

So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.

View attachment 27016

View attachment 27017

This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!

View attachment 27018
Click to expand...
Lol, wrong or right I'm gonna pull for you all the way. Even if this is a fail, dont give up and keep practicing what you do. Great job man.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, what are your thoughts on a -nao? Will it be a while before that occurs? Thanks in advance.
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Need to see the IO standing wave quiet down and probably get another round of +SCAND/-NAMT going before we can start to think about the NAO again, the foreseeable future is liable to be positive or very positive. The very tail end of Dec &/or early January (ish) is roughly what I would shoot for to see another legit -NAO attempt to take hold because I think the IO standing wave will have broken down by then.
 
Yeah, don’t like those positive heights and 570+ dms on top of us when this possible storm is approaching, WAA would be a issue, but still got that CAD/cold surface so ice is definitely on the table, don’t like these H5 looks the ensembles/OPs are showing as they resemble some bad ice storms we’ve had in the past, again tho we don’t even know the timing or whether this thing will be to slow or be fast enough to become a “winter storm” and this can still completely lose any legs it had real quick5BA4747A-F790-43B0-B211-406A26A0C920.png7250CE6D-B265-4BFD-BE1B-00D7EACFF0ED.png6D1C7DD3-A040-4572-9F96-E831B75A035B.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, don’t like those positive heights and 570+ dms on top of us when this storm is approaching, WAA would be a issue, but still got that CAD/cold surface so ice is definitely on the table, don’t like these H5 patterns the ensembles/OPs are showing as they resemble some bad ice storms we’ve had in the past
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The mid-level ridge axis is traditionally right over us during Miller B/CAD events. This z500 is pretty close to that and is if anything shifted SW of the composite look over the last 70 years or so which probably means we might see a deeper high further south towards PA/MD etc vs New England & southern Canada.

NCEP Reanalysis Miller A & Miller B MSLPa & 500mb composites.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I know its early but here are some of my early predictions:

Birmingham: 18"
Atlanta:14"
Chattanooga: 22"
Greenville: 16"
Macon: 4" snow with 1" sleet/zr
Charlotte: 15"
Columbia: 6" with 1/2" ice/zr
Nashville: 10"
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Based on what?

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
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