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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Jessy89
Member
Next euro runs when 9pm or so? I wouldn’t be surprised if it backs off.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
In all fairness to Brad, he’s had some pretty big busted forecasts the last few years especially for those of us in the southeastern part of CLT metro
The 18z Euro has already run, it goes out to 90hrs only, from the looks of it, even better than 12z having the low further west which should help it cutoff. The 18z EPS that goes out to 144hrs just started and should have data in by 9.
The main 00z Euro runs around 12:45 to about 2am.
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After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.
Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.
The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.
More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.
Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.
Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.
The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.
More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.
Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.
Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
I forgot to add this, as you can see, the main front has passed through, moisture starts increasing due to the convergence. Euro tries to deliver the overrunning as the low begins organizing.
Usually, high QPF and deep cold, don’t occur together. That’s a reason the South hasn’t seen many 12” + snowstorms.
Jessy89
Member
Very detailed prediction but when will models jump on board and show quite a snow storm. I mean your basically saying this thing is gonna dump a swath of a foot of snow on people the middle of next week. If models don’t show this soon people will be caught off guard and unprepared for such a storm.
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In this case they would occur together, because of the polar and STJ convergence. That is one of the biggest factors that would trigger the snow storm.
I can't tell if you know the future, if you actually just have supreme confidence that this is going to happen, or what it is. But you really seem to really be all in on this. I tell you one thing, if this thing drops a massive snowstorm like you are saying, you become a legend. Lol but it's really hard to believe something like this is going to happen. Just very interested to see if the Euro does anything similar tonight that it did this afternoon.
Thanks for the big post! One thing I would point out is that if you're expecting heavy wet snow, you won't get high ratios. If you're expecting high ratios due to deep cold, the snow will be more powdery in nature. Might be good to incorporate that variable into your model. Might help with predicting or forecasting or estimating (not sure how we're using these terms now??) snow depth.
Euro Definitely was an interesting run.
It seems like it has been a very long time since we've seen a true Arctic blast in the early to middle part of December for the Southeastern US.
Jessy89
Member
I hate to say it but 0z will show people how “Reliable” there favorite model EURO is??
Cad Wedge NC
Member
It shows an ice storm for the southeast. Big CAD event.
He's talking about 12z.
Jessy89
Member
There hasn't been another Euro run yet, he's talking about the 12z still.