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Pattern The Great December Dump

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I’m going to say this much. With a 1043HP sitting over NY/PA, temps will not be the problem in the traditional CAD areas N/W of 85. We all know how underdone CAD is at this lead time.
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The strength of the surface is a combination of several things aside from just the intensity of the low-level air mass. Hydrostatically, yes a colder air mass >>> more sinking >>> stronger surface high but upper-level confluence also leads to a stronger surface high & more significant upper-level confluence doesn't guarantee a colder low-level air mass.

CAD requires a stout along barrier pressure gradient force between the surface high & corresponding lower pressures to the south, and while a stronger high is also proportional to this PGF, it's not guaranteed that this PGF will be stronger & thus it limits the amount of information you can infer about cold air advection, which matters a lot in a case like this. We also need the high to have time to settle in before the overrunning wave approaches and this large-scale pattern argues for more transience than the Miller B composite I've shown here before.
 
Cmc has GA starting off with some ice
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png
 
Gfs stayed with the similar idea ... and it’s ensembles actually match it way more individual wintry runs than 18z for sure
 
Anafrontal looking better for places like TN/AL. I can see cold air being colder further south, so i could see parts of central Bama getting something out of it as well. I think the second low late next week needs watched as well if the timing is right.
 
accu35 said:
Anafrontal looking better for places like TN/AL. I can see cold air being colder further south, so i could see parts of central Bama getting something out of it as well. I think the second low late next week needs watched as well if the timing is right.
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these fronts almost always realize a bit warmer than GFS numbers.. hopefully it goes the other way this time. Southern Tn valley just isn't getting enough of the arctic push. Only pieces of that main cold lobe in Central/Northern Canada are coming down. CHA might sneak an inch mid week at best, and only if the precip comes at night. Meanwhile, here's the ICON; 1575782899708.png
 
Not a big fan of the 11-16 on the GEFS 00z run. Warmth and more warmth....


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I'd love to see ECMWF getting a bit more onboard with wintry threat before I get excited about some ice/snow outside mountains.
 
SETNwx said:
these fronts almost always realize a bit warmer than GFS numbers.. hopefully it goes the other way this time. Southern Tn valley just isn't getting enough of the arctic push. Only pieces of that main cold lobe in Central/Northern Canada are coming down. CHA might sneak an inch mid week at best, and only if the precip comes at night. Meanwhile, here's the ICON; View attachment 27457
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I dont pay much attention to the icons temps honestly. It's always warmer than other models period. I think the Icon will correct with temps as we get closer. I can see a good inch or so in north Bama as the gfs/cmc/nam/eps/gefs and the mean shows
 
The good news is... it's only mid Dec.. lol Lots more time to hit the mother lode, fantasy or otherwise.
 
accu35 said:
I dont pay much attention to the icons temps honestly. It's always warmer than other models period. I think the Icon will correct with temps as we get closer. I can see a good inch or so in north Bama as the gfs/cmc/nam/eps/gefs and the mean shows
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yeah, it's under snowing for sure... no snow in the high Southern Apps? Something is slightly wonky about this model.
 
SETNwx said:
The good news is... it's only mid Dec.. lol Lots more time to hit the mother lode, fantasy or otherwise.
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The bad thing is, for many of us we received our only snow threat in December the last two years.. there’s an outside shot many on the board get completely skunked this year
 
Weather underground has my lowest temp at 32 for the next ten days. LOL I'm sure we see at least upper 20s, but I find their algorithms fairly useful and accurate for the most part. No snow icons to speak of. MRX still giving us a slight chance of snow Tuesday night.
 
What a great pattern lol thought it was changing 10 days out and 1 night below freezing what a joke
 
One last stolen map from 'the other forum'. Does nrgjeff post here? Just curious, love that met/poster. His style is concise, smart, to the point, smart but also easily understood by the laymen weather enthusiast. Don't get me wrong, love the Webbers and HMs of the world, but I seriously only understand 10-45 percent of a given post from their likes. Anyway, here's the ripped off Euro map: 1575792208499.png
 
Looking further out since it seems we’re losing our storm(s)... at least we aren’t talking about a possible tornado outbreak like we were a few days ago

65723416-9A76-4B5B-B713-20927EF0C909.pngCE30888C-E712-4277-9A81-7593E7E98D40.png
 
Storm5 said:
Two years ago today it was pouring snow . Ended up with over 4 inches
820e98036b5c90658e469bd3af4fe181.jpg



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Two years ago I went to work for less than an hour and was sent home because it was snowing like crazy. 1 to 2 inches became 6 to 10 and sure enough 9 fell between the start to the end overnight. Maybe we can see something like this soon once more.
 
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