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Pattern The Great December Dump

e24 looks good.
Ollie Williams said:
FWIW for a storm 8 days away, a large signal on the EPS. Huge increase!
GSO. I think this is the snowiest run all season, besides for our Anafront storm the day of.
00z
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12z
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BHS1975 said:
High too far east for RDU


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As I posted before, I really like the initial cold air (dew points ~0). Also, as long as we get the storm to stay off the coast we could actually get a meso high to set up just to our north. This would keep a stronger CAD in place. And again with the really cold air in place, the precip could be over before the air temp could get above freezing.
 
I'm running behind on my detailed post, but I will most *definitely have it posted sometime this evening. I do think the timing is off on the Euro with the low pressure system. I think the low pressure system will bring mostly snow, and I'll explain why in my detailed post.
 
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WxWatch said:
I'm running behind on my detailed post, but I will most defentailly have it posted sometime this evening. I do think the timing is off on the Euro with the low pressure system. I think the low pressure system will bring mostly snow, and I'll explain why in my detailed post.
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Make sure you don't set your hopes too high. ;)
 
FallsLake said:
As I posted before, I really like the initial cold air (dew points ~0). Also, as long as we get the storm to stay off the coast we could actually get a meso high to set up just to our north. This would keep a stronger CAD in place. And again with the really cold air in place, the precip could be over before the air temp could get above freezing.
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I think there was a storm in February 2015 when that very thing happened. Models kept wanting change over to rain up to almost a few hours before the event even though temps here were in the upper 20s with dew points near 0. Then the models started picking up on the mesohigh that developed just to our north and temps locked into the mid 20s with sleet and a little freezing rain for 12 hours when the forecast had been for freezing rain changing to rain
 
You guys are crazy haha We have had 2 EURO runs show a system 190+ hrs out.

At this point all you can say is that there is a storm signal and even then its only a couple runs old.

Need this inside 6-7 days before even thinking about it being a legit system. Not to mention there is any entire system in front of this one that will have to be out of the way before this one even comes into focus
 
Fountainguy97 said:
You guys are crazy haha We have had 2 EURO runs show a system 190+ hrs out.

At this point all you can say is that there is a storm signal and even then its only a couple runs old.

Need this inside 6-7 days before even thinking about it being a legit system. Not to mention there is any entire system in front of this one that will have to be out of the way before this one even comes into focus
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The large-scale ingredients are clearly there by day 6-7 on both the Euro & EPS esp given they're virtually identical out to that period. What happens thereafter remains to be seen but given the previous statement, this has some legitimacy & wasn't a "fluke" run imo.
 
More often than not, the perfect timing that we need in these situations doesn't pan out...i.e. the high slides out too quickly. Hopefully, that won't be the case here. But it's usually a good bet to lean in the direction of cold highs being overmodeled this far out. Still, it's good to have a high pressure nearby, at least, with a legitimate cold air source to tap.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The large-scale ingredients are clearly there by day 6-7 on both the Euro & EPS esp given they're virtually identical out to that period. What happens thereafter remains to be seen but given the previous statement, this has some legitimacy & wasn't a "fluke" run imo.
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Agreed. I'm not saying this wont happen. In fact, this is likely the first period that shows promise for a widespread event. And I always feel more confident when the EURO and EPS are on board first. It seems those systems are always pretty legit. As you said the ingredients are there and that's the key at this range! I won't be super interested until we get this to the 6 day mark (144 hrs). Our first system puts a lot of variables into the playing field.

These storms that are modeled far out are always so taxing haha give me a surprise storm at day 5 over tracking a storm for 7-9 days.
 
Rain Cold said:
More often than not, the perfect timing that we need in these situations doesn't pan out...i.e. the high slides out too quickly. Hopefully, that won't be the case here. But it's usually a good bet to lean in the direction of cold highs being overmodeled this far out. Still, it's good to have a high pressure nearby, at least, with a legitimate cold air source to tap.
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I think a really big high is coming down next week regardless, North Pacific blocking regimes usually maximize the depth/intensity of arctic air we have to work with because it often originates from across the pole in Siberia.
 
Wondering if this system keeps showing up, we can get a better look at H5? Or would doing that mess up our High? What, hypothetically would be our options for a better look?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think a really big high is coming down next week regardless, North Pacific blocking regimes usually maximize the depth/intensity of arctic air we have to work with because it often originates from across the pole in Siberia.
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Agreed. Hopefully, it hangs out long enough.
 
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