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Pattern The Great December Dump

Ollie Williams said:
... It's really the only model onboard. Just prepare for another heartbreak.
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As a fan of Georgia, Braves, Falcons, Hawks, as well as winter weather, I certainly am used to heartbreak. Better to expect getting your heart broken...makes it easier to take!
 
Shawn said:
Thankfully, we are our own individual people and if you want an ice storm and no power for a week+ you can have it. I personally would not want that as a weather enthusiast or even as a pro met.
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I understand that, and we all have our own opinions.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, that's a decent hp over the lakes at 1041mb. I'm suprised the euro isn't showing hardly any winter weather with that 1041mb. I guess i was told the wrong information about when the IOD is positive like it is, that it allows the mjo to focus in the colder more niño phases of 8-2, which hasn't happened yet. I think ive mentioned about the nao/ao being positive, which isnt good imo. The AAM has been negative, which is a disconnect between the ocean and the atmosphere. I'm cautiously optimistic that will turn positive and perhaps that would help some because i dont think we want a trough out west this winter.
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Good question. Probably be good to use the @ sign when you want to tag @Webberweather53 He may miss the post if you don't.
 
In my opinion, I think this will be a minor sleet >> minor/moderate zr >> to rain changeover for most areas, gefs shows this scenario well, and it’s something in between the GFS/euro, more exactly like something in between, once we get into shorter range, than we can start focusing on smaller scale/mesoscale things that may affect the outcome, like whether there’s a fronto band that may dynamically cool the column at first and cause things to overperform, or dry air causes Virga and causes things to underperform, WBZ temps, dry layers above the surface, that good stuff, but we still don’t even know the placement and how strong that shortwave will even be
 
This post isn’t geared to anyone. I just think with this being the first possible widespread event outside of the mtns, some wanted answers too quickly. Then some were asking (perhaps foolishly) on ptype, amounts, forecast cutoff lines, north-west trends or denial there of, TOO many days in advanced. There is still a lot of time left to track this and some are already frustrated perhaps from getting their hopes up by one individual or entity through social media or such as. With that being said, I don’t expect a model (say the euro) to do a complete 360 at this range. It’s been changing some and I expect it will continue to do so until a compromise it met with the gfs. It’s possible a few different waves could be responsible for ice then cold rain for many.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
In my opinion, I think this will be a minor sleet >> minor/moderate zr >> to rain changeover for most areas, gefs shows this scenario well, and it’s something in between the GFS/euro, more exactly like something in between, once we get into shorter range, than we can start focusing on smaller scale/mesoscale things that may affect the outcome, like whether there’s a fronto band that may dynamically cool the column at first and cause things to overperform, or dry air causes Virga and causes things to underperform, WBZ temps, dry layers above the surface, that good stuff, but we still don’t even know the placement and how strong that shortwave will even be
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Great to hear that! I’ve been telling myself that GFS will cave. Though I’m not going to be comfortable until the separation seems more promising.


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BirdManDoomW said:
This post isn’t geared to anyone. I just think with this being the first possible widespread event outside of the mtns, some wanted answers too quickly. Then some were asking (perhaps foolishly) on ptype, amounts, forecast cutoff lines, north-west trends or denial there of, TOO many days in advanced. There is still a lot of time left to track this and some are already frustrated perhaps from getting their hopes up by one individual or entity through social media or such as. With that being said, I don’t expect a model (say the euro) to do a complete 360 at this range. It’s been changing some and I expect it will continue to do so until a compromise it met with the gfs. It’s possible a few different waves could be responsible for ice then cold rain for many.
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180
 
Ollie Williams said:
Great to hear that! I’ve been telling myself that GFS will cave. Though I’m not going to be comfortable until the separation seems more promising.


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Yeah, the GFS is likely wayyy to wintry basically showing a all out wintry mess, cold bias doesn’t help
 
only issue is this trend towards more interaction, Stronger Energy more South right on the Texas/Mexico border may make up for it but that has to make you uncomfortable if your hoping for IP/ZR and hoping the GFS wins 8CC415D2-8F39-409E-9210-8A4F9D4BC4BD.gif
 
No bueno, if you continue this trend CAD may not even make it in time for the precip, and that shortwave is getting uncomfortably close to that big vortex, one more shift like that and it may ruin are system ED43E62D-AF24-4DEB-8692-FB1D8BA6BDCA.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
No bueno, if you continue this trend CAD may not even make it in time for the precip, and that shortwave is getting uncomfortably close to that big vortex, one more shift like that and it may ruin are system View attachment 27434
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Damn SE ridge flexing! Gonna be a runner or cutter by tomorrow! But, it’s only December!?
 
That gfs I’m not sure why the high pressure is so slow. It just menders along and never catches up to the system. This one we can probably put the fork in it. It’s dead


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I don't know...all in all the GFS is mostly holding serve. The SER is being modeled stronger now, which we knew it would be on the GFS.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.gif
 
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