In my opinion, I think this will be a minor sleet >> minor/moderate zr >> to rain changeover for most areas, gefs shows this scenario well, and it’s something in between the GFS/euro, more exactly like something in between, once we get into shorter range, than we can start focusing on smaller scale/mesoscale things that may affect the outcome, like whether there’s a fronto band that may dynamically cool the column at first and cause things to overperform, or dry air causes Virga and causes things to underperform, WBZ temps, dry layers above the surface, that good stuff, but we still don’t even know the placement and how strong that shortwave will even be