Pattern The Great December Dump

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
I’m going to say this much. With a 1043HP sitting over NY/PA, temps will not be the problem in the traditional CAD areas N/W of 85. We all know how underdone CAD is at this lead time.
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The strength of the surface is a combination of several things aside from just the intensity of the low-level air mass. Hydrostatically, yes a colder air mass >>> more sinking >>> stronger surface high but upper-level confluence also leads to a stronger surface high & more significant upper-level confluence doesn't guarantee a colder low-level air mass.

CAD requires a stout along barrier pressure gradient force between the surface high & corresponding lower pressures to the south, and while a stronger high is also proportional to this PGF, it's not guaranteed that this PGF will be stronger & thus it limits the amount of information you can infer about cold air advection, which matters a lot in a case like this. We also need the high to have time to settle in before the overrunning wave approaches and this large-scale pattern argues for more transience than the Miller B composite I've shown here before.
 
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Cmc has GA starting off with some ice
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Anafrontal looking better for places like TN/AL. I can see cold air being colder further south, so i could see parts of central Bama getting something out of it as well. I think the second low late next week needs watched as well if the timing is right.
 
accu35 said:
Anafrontal looking better for places like TN/AL. I can see cold air being colder further south, so i could see parts of central Bama getting something out of it as well. I think the second low late next week needs watched as well if the timing is right.
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these fronts almost always realize a bit warmer than GFS numbers.. hopefully it goes the other way this time. Southern Tn valley just isn't getting enough of the arctic push. Only pieces of that main cold lobe in Central/Northern Canada are coming down. CHA might sneak an inch mid week at best, and only if the precip comes at night. Meanwhile, here's the ICON; 1575782899708.png
 
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SETNwx said:
these fronts almost always realize a bit warmer than GFS numbers.. hopefully it goes the other way this time. Southern Tn valley just isn't getting enough of the arctic push. Only pieces of that main cold lobe in Central/Northern Canada are coming down. CHA might sneak an inch mid week at best, and only if the precip comes at night. Meanwhile, here's the ICON; View attachment 27457
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I dont pay much attention to the icons temps honestly. It's always warmer than other models period. I think the Icon will correct with temps as we get closer. I can see a good inch or so in north Bama as the gfs/cmc/nam/eps/gefs and the mean shows
 
accu35 said:
I dont pay much attention to the icons temps honestly. It's always warmer than other models period. I think the Icon will correct with temps as we get closer. I can see a good inch or so in north Bama as the gfs/cmc/nam/eps/gefs and the mean shows
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yeah, it's under snowing for sure... no snow in the high Southern Apps? Something is slightly wonky about this model.
 
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SETNwx said:
The good news is... it's only mid Dec.. lol Lots more time to hit the mother lode, fantasy or otherwise.
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The bad thing is, for many of us we received our only snow threat in December the last two years.. there’s an outside shot many on the board get completely skunked this year
 
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