The 12z Euro is pretty close to producing some freezing drizzle at day 5 over the western piedmont of NC in association with wave 2. 500mb pattern more closely resembles the Miller B composite compared w/ the first wave.
Man if only that can expand further south
Maybe if wave 2 can speed up more things can get interesting?
The latest Maxar forecast has warmer than normal dominating the US outside of the upper Midwest through 12/23 and with no end even then in sight. This forecast is much warmer than its forecast from Friday. Break out the shorts, folks, we’re looking golden for our 9th in a row mild December! I hope the warmth isn’t enough to cause me to put the AC back on and go back to walking inside on the treadmill.
How the MJO doing? Warm phase I’m guessing?
Phase 6 is that right? Looks to be moving in the right direction for January to me.
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Does BAMWX work for them ? They see to flip as much
Is there public access to this data? I'd like to try to see composites for storms in my area.ENSO's apparent footprint on the frequency of Miller A cyclone events is evident here, note how the Miller A & El Nino winter storm composites are virtually identical:
Conclusion: El Nino increases the frequency of Miller A (coastal cyclone) events in NC & this heightened frequency of Miller As likely explains the enhanced seasonal gradient between Greensboro/Winston-Salem & Raleigh-Durham that's also observed in El Nino winters.
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In La Ninas, there's also a negative NAO in the composite, but it's displaced much further east & equatorward of both the NINO & Miller A composite.
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Worth clarifying that both of these above 500mb anomaly composites above include every winter storm that's occurred in NC since 1948 during El Nino or La Nina, with both composites including nearly 100 events. Therefore, the conclusions attained from them are much more likely to be significant & meaningful.
This post is definitely something to put in your back pocket.
We see how the torchy December that was showing up turned out.The latest Maxar forecast has warmer than normal dominating the US outside of the upper Midwest through 12/23 and with no end even then in sight. This forecast is much warmer than its forecast from Friday. Break out the shorts, folks, we’re looking golden for our 9th in a row mild December! I hope the warmth isn’t enough to cause me to put the AC back on and go back to walking inside on the treadmill.
We see how the torchy December that was showing up turned out.
Don't jinx it. We really don't know what happens after the 20th or so. Unless I'm looking at the wrong thing the teles look atrocious. +NAO (what's new) +AO, neutral EPO, neutral to -PNA, MJO in warm phases. Can't see how we stay even average. We know how warm it can get around here in December and 7 days of torch can wipeout 3 weeks of average temps easily.We see how the torchy December that was showing up turned out.
How often does a raging positive NAO in December flip to negative in Jan and Feb? My guess is not much.I find it quite interesting that despite the mild in much of the country, the upper Midwest remains quite cold for yet another winter! This is very La Ninaish. Could this somehow be related to GW?