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Pattern The Great December Dump

ForsythSnow said:
Two years ago I went to work for less than an hour and was sent home because it was snowing like crazy. 1 to 2 inches became 6 to 10 and sure enough 9 fell between the start to the end overnight. Maybe we can see something like this soon once more.
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Y’all keep driving that knife in my back deeper and deeper. Let’s see something like that this year but about 30 miles more East.


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NoSnowATL said:
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Glwt GFS long range -AO bias FTL
 
Ugh oh. I heard Van Denton is considering lowering his winter snowfall forecast 10-20% across the board after losing 2” of qpf next week as rain plus less cold to work with for remaining December into some of January. Obviously makes sense, still lot of winter left tho minus the beginning.
 
One thing I’m not liking early in this winter are the good setups wasted by not having enough cold air, we could have had multiple snow events last winter if cold air was present, but warm ULLs ruled the day.
 
May be more energy to work with in a warmer January esp for the climo areas to score a big dog. I can’t foresee these heavy precip events continuing all winter. They may be done by the time we get a cold spring/Feb.
 
Wow. I just got nam’d. All models continue to increase the backside snow threat for the Midsouth but Memphis hasn’t even got it mentioned in the official forecast.
 

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ICON has gotten better, I really don’t care for this storm nomore but the ICON looks better with more digging
 
JLL1973 said:
Wow. I just got nam’d. All models continue to increase the backside snow threat for the Midsouth but Memphis hasn’t even got it mentioned in the official forecast.
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Nws huntsville here says NO accumulation only few hours of snow
 
KyloG said:
CFS seasonal flipped warm for January but February/March look great.



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I hope we aren’t using the cfs to see what’s going to happen in the future ... everyone giving up on January before real models can even look into January ... let’s try to get the week from now forecast right instead of GUESSING what it’ll be like in a month ... “December going to be a torch” “looking torchy this December” “should be in the heater for December” ... we’ve seen no heat for December we will have a few above average days but no wild 80s or anything close to it... we haven’t even seen the south east ridge make an appearance this year
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I hope we aren’t using the cfs to see what’s going to happen in the future ... everyone giving up on January before real models can even look into January ... let’s try to get the week from now forecast right instead of GUESSING what it’ll be like in a month ... “December going to be a torch” “looking torchy this December” “should be in the heater for December” ... we’ve seen no heat for December we will have a few above average days but no wild 80s or anything close to it... we haven’t even seen the south east ridge make an appearance this year
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Take a deep breath and stop acting like a lunatic. Nobody is predicting anything or canceling anything...it was just a minor observation about how the seasonals look. Relaxxxxxx
 
12z Icon develops a low in the gulf on the tail end of the anafrontal and shoot up quicker. Possibly bringing an ice storm for the favorable areas, Interesting.
 
Why the ICON showed this ? Well that energy actually managed to make a effort and try to go negative tilt, and the energy was a bit stronger overall, it trying to achieve negative tilt matters in this setup, also it was a tad slower BF814DE3-EC59-4973-AEB0-AC9F843FA6FA.gif
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Why the ICON showed this ? Well that energy actually managed to make a effort and try to go negative tilt, and the energy was a bit stronger overall, it trying to achieve negative tilt matters in this setup, also it was a tad slower View attachment 27474
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Kinda of funny, but I've seen the icon lead the way on cases like these and other models follow
 
Gfs still changing at 24 hours, reason why the last run looked like that is Becuase that other energy behind this one we’re interested in showed up wayyy to quick 4C49B78C-EC77-44C2-9926-C7DE5F5D453C.gif
 
Icon should be colder considering the location of that High. Cad should be present through nc upstate sc in ne Georgia.


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accu35 said:
I can see a dusting there. Little north west from them, gonna see more.
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Haha shouldn’t have quoted your tweet... only quoted yours cause you were showing the Cfs outlook as a real outlook and it’s forecasting skills are trash .. if you look and read comments before and some even after u they are starting to try and cancel January .. a lot with the doom bird guy but he’s always giving out wack sayings
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Haha shouldn’t have quoted your tweet... only quoted yours cause you were showing the Cfs outlook as a real outlook and it’s forecasting skills are trash .. if you look and read comments before and some even after u they are starting to try and cancel January .. a lot with the doom bird guy but he’s always giving out wack sayings
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Wrong guy here
 
Storm5 said:
Two years ago today it was pouring snow . Ended up with over 4 inches
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This one showed that rates will overcome. Everything was marginal but 26 hours of snow left 12” and an embarrassed school district. 48 hours without power is also too much and made it all much less enjoyable.
 
The Euro isn’t even close. You have the ICON now and the 6z CMC. But it hard to imagine the Euro swinging to an ICON solution as below.

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GEFS is still predicting an NAO of ~+1.75 for 12/12-13, the period of the wintry threat. That’s a 98 percentile high NAO. The highest NAO for any of the 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950 is only +1.00. The -NAO is often mentioned as crucial for a legit winter storm threat (even though I’ve said that is deceptive based on the good number of big storms that have occurred with neutral to sometimes even +NAO).

Why is the +NAO hardly being mentioned here as regards this threat?

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GaWx said:
GEFS is still predicting an NAO of ~+1.75 for 12/12-13, the period of the wintry threat. That’s a 98 percentile high NAO. The highest NAO for any of the 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950 is only +1.00. The -NAO is often mentioned as crucial for a legit winter storm threat (even though I’ve said that is deceptive based on the good number of big storms that have occurred with neutral to sometimes even +NAO).

Why is the +NAO hardly being mentioned here as regards this threat?

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Because we’ve been looking for a miller B with this pattern, you really don’t need a -NAO with a miller B/CAD pattern, composite that Webb made proves that, -NAOs are more crucial to Miller A setups however, but with a miller B your depending more on North Pacific blocking and some type of vortex or a 50/50 in SE Canada with a ridge axis extending from the SE into the central US
 
GaWx said:
GEFS is still predicting an NAO of ~+1.75 for 12/12-13, the period of the wintry threat. That’s a 98 percentile high NAO. The highest NAO for any of the 28 major winter storms at ATL since 1950 is only +1.00. The -NAO is often mentioned as crucial for a legit winter storm threat (even though I’ve said that is deceptive based on the good number of big storms that have occurred with neutral to sometimes even +NAO).

Why is the +NAO hardly being mentioned here as regards this threat?

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That's so annoying how it skyrocketed right on December 1st. And it'll probably stay that way until March. I think that's one of the main reasons the I-20 corridor has been constantly disappointed since 2011 and that wont change unless that tele changes. As far as the CAD regions we've had to deal with Miller Bs and slop events but not quite as dependent on the NAO.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Because we’ve been looking for a miller B with this pattern, you really don’t need a -NAO with a miller B/CAD pattern, composite that Webb made proves that, -NAOs are more crucial to Miller A setups however, but with a miller B your depending more on North Pacific blocking and some type of vortex or a 50/50 in SE Canada with a ridge axis extending from the SE into the central US
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Yes there’s basically no correlation between the NAO and Miller B events here, individual cases certainly have them but the collection of events since the mid 20th century do not. Coastal cyclones and anafrontal events are a different story. What really matters is getting a North Pacific block & SE Canada or Lakes vortex that digs down to about 50N or so and becomes negatively tilted off of Newfoundland and then see a southern stream shortwave come out of the southern Rockies at the same time this vortex anomaly is entering into the Atlantic. This setup has the southern stream wave, north pac block, & and a SE Canada vortex but it’s further north of the composite, suggesting a weaker cold push and more progressive pattern overall that makes it harder to lock in the CAD high. There still could be some sleet and ZR in CAD favored areas of NC & VA but a minor event at best, freezing drizzle, or nothing at all seems likely
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Because we’ve been looking for a miller B with this pattern, you really don’t need a -NAO with a miller B/CAD pattern, composite that Webb made proves that, -NAOs are more crucial to Miller A setups however, but with a miller B your depending more on North Pacific blocking and some type of vortex or a 50/50 in SE Canada with a ridge axis extending from the SE into the central US
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But in general for cold prospects for the SE US, a very strong +NAO can’t in itself be good news, right?
 
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