• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern September Somnolence

Raleigh Hazardous Outlook for Triad -

"A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
through this evening. The primary severe weather hazard will be
locally damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out, mainly along and north of highway 64. The severe weather threat

appears to be highest between 4 PM and 11 PM."
 
Might have some fireworks later this afternoon and tonight. Under a marginal risk right now. Really wish they would combine marginal/slight, and enhanced/moderate, though.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF GA TO
SOUTHERN VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible between about 3 PM to 12 AM EDT
from parts of Georgia to southern Virginia. Potential for a brief
tornado exists mainly this evening in parts of southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina.

...Carolinas/eastern GA/southern VA...
Primary change this outlook is to slightly expand the Marginal risk
north across southern VA given variance among guidance with the
northward extent of surface-based instability this evening.

Low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Ozarks will rapidly eject
into the Mid-Atlantic States by Friday morning. Attendant weak (1014
mb) surface cyclone over central MS should track northeast along a
quasi-stationary front and reach the southwest VA border area by
late evening. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s are
anticipated across most of the Piedmont/Coastal Plain of the
Carolinas/GA by afternoon, supporting scattered storm development.
While hodographs will generally remain small, 700-500 mb
southwesterlies will strengthen to between 25-40 kt with approach of
the shortwave trough. A few multicell clusters and a couple
transient supercells are expected into early evening with isolated
strong wind gusts being the primary hazard.

Enlarging low-level hodographs are anticipated after sunset as
southwesterlies increase atop the slowly advancing warm front from
the VA/NC border. Guidance differs with the degree of surface-based
instability near/south of the boundary and this will be a key factor
to the potential supercell tornado risk into late evening. Even so,
given the lack of cyclogenesis and unfavorable timing with regard to
the diurnal heating cycle, overall storm coverage may be more
limited in this time frame.

day1otlk_1300.gif
 
Raleigh Hazardous Outlook for Triad -

"A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
through this evening. The primary severe weather hazard will be
locally damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out, mainly along and north of highway 64. The severe weather threat

appears to be highest between 4 PM and 11 PM."
.
8fc297386c685ceebb0895e89d3f87ce.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
B3A89F3B-0718-4D94-AB0F-8A63F985A0E0.png
It was in Richmond and Montgomery counties. Really weakened as it moved NE. Wouldn't be shocked to see another tor warning this evening across the area

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Kiss of Death!:mad:
 
Back
Top