Might have some fireworks later this afternoon and tonight. Under a marginal risk right now. Really wish they would combine marginal/slight, and enhanced/moderate, though.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF GA TO
SOUTHERN VA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible between about 3 PM to 12 AM EDT
from parts of Georgia to southern Virginia. Potential for a brief
tornado exists mainly this evening in parts of southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina.
...Carolinas/eastern GA/southern VA...
Primary change this outlook is to slightly expand the Marginal risk
north across southern VA given variance among guidance with the
northward extent of surface-based instability this evening.
Low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Ozarks will rapidly eject
into the Mid-Atlantic States by Friday morning. Attendant weak (1014
mb) surface cyclone over central MS should track northeast along a
quasi-stationary front and reach the southwest VA border area by
late evening. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s are
anticipated across most of the Piedmont/Coastal Plain of the
Carolinas/GA by afternoon, supporting scattered storm development.
While hodographs will generally remain small, 700-500 mb
southwesterlies will strengthen to between 25-40 kt with approach of
the shortwave trough. A few multicell clusters and a couple
transient supercells are expected into early evening with isolated
strong wind gusts being the primary hazard.
Enlarging low-level hodographs are anticipated after sunset as
southwesterlies increase atop the slowly advancing warm front from
the VA/NC border. Guidance differs with the degree of surface-based
instability near/south of the boundary and this will be a key factor
to the potential supercell tornado risk into late evening. Even so,
given the lack of cyclogenesis and unfavorable timing with regard to
the diurnal heating cycle, overall storm coverage may be more
limited in this time frame.
Let’s see how many ways we can get whiffed tonight!??
A can’t miss!
