• We've made some major changes to the website. You can view a short list : Here
  • Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Pattern September Somnolence (1 Viewer)

Joined
Dec 28, 2017
Messages
1,781
Likes
1,381
Location
Greenville
Yeah, west of the Apps gets 2-4” of rain, we barely get an inch through Sunday! Stalled fronts rock, and it’s suppo to get to 91 tomorrow! We are winning so hard !:(
Going to call my heating and air guy out tomorrow to make sure the AC is ready for winter. I tested its limits in the last 90 days :(
 
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
3,073
Likes
2,754
Location
Dallas Texas
cold front plowing through OKC right now... gonna struggle to stay a tomorrow with a strong north wind and may have 50s tomorrow night...:eek: saying good riddance to summer here
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
3,270
Likes
5,487
Location
SAV, GA
Gainesville, FL, is on their way to the warmest Sep on record, beating the historic 1925 by at least the better part of one degree!
 

pcbjr

Supporter
Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
6,559
Likes
6,515
Location
Gainesville, FL
This amends the post made yesterday, here ... http://southernwx.com/community/threads/september-somnolence.417/page-17#post-111740

The data I used came from Intellicast; the historic data was woefully incorrect, which, of course, made the post likewise. Larry was kind enough to point that out to me via PM. So, 4 things:
1) The post is factually incorrect;
2) Larry is a true gentleman (and a scholar) for letting me know the error privately;
3) The original post is not being deleted since the qualitative sentiment of "don't lose hope" stands ... ;); and
4) Don't rely on Intellicast for historic data.
Phil
 

MRStorm

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
125
Likes
157
Location
McCalla, AL
Just a tick over 4 inches since Midnight in McCalla (I59/20 and I459) interchange in the B'ham Metro. Training right through central AL most of the day.
 
Joined
Dec 8, 2017
Messages
163
Likes
107
Location
Eastman, GA
I haven't received any rain at my location for the past two weeks. Additionally, temperatures have been brutal SE of this stalled front. Outside of 2002, I can never remember a "summer' that just seemingly would never end.
 

EV_WS

Supporter
Member
Joined
Aug 24, 2017
Messages
125
Likes
152
Location
Forsyth County, NC
Raleigh Hazardous Outlook for Triad -

"A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
through this evening. The primary severe weather hazard will be
locally damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out, mainly along and north of highway 64. The severe weather threat

appears to be highest between 4 PM and 11 PM."
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
3,175
Likes
2,203
Location
Wake Forest, NC
Might have some fireworks later this afternoon and tonight. Under a marginal risk right now. Really wish they would combine marginal/slight, and enhanced/moderate, though.

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 27 2018

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF GA TO
SOUTHERN VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds are possible between about 3 PM to 12 AM EDT
from parts of Georgia to southern Virginia. Potential for a brief
tornado exists mainly this evening in parts of southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina.

...Carolinas/eastern GA/southern VA...
Primary change this outlook is to slightly expand the Marginal risk
north across southern VA given variance among guidance with the
northward extent of surface-based instability this evening.

Low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Ozarks will rapidly eject
into the Mid-Atlantic States by Friday morning. Attendant weak (1014
mb) surface cyclone over central MS should track northeast along a
quasi-stationary front and reach the southwest VA border area by
late evening. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s are
anticipated across most of the Piedmont/Coastal Plain of the
Carolinas/GA by afternoon, supporting scattered storm development.
While hodographs will generally remain small, 700-500 mb
southwesterlies will strengthen to between 25-40 kt with approach of
the shortwave trough. A few multicell clusters and a couple
transient supercells are expected into early evening with isolated
strong wind gusts being the primary hazard.

Enlarging low-level hodographs are anticipated after sunset as
southwesterlies increase atop the slowly advancing warm front from
the VA/NC border. Guidance differs with the degree of surface-based
instability near/south of the boundary and this will be a key factor
to the potential supercell tornado risk into late evening. Even so,
given the lack of cyclogenesis and unfavorable timing with regard to
the diurnal heating cycle, overall storm coverage may be more
limited in this time frame.

 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,066
Likes
5,049
Location
Roanoke Rapids, NC
Raleigh Hazardous Outlook for Triad -

"A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon
through this evening. The primary severe weather hazard will be
locally damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out, mainly along and north of highway 64. The severe weather threat

appears to be highest between 4 PM and 11 PM."
.


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 1)

Top