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Pattern September Somnolence (2 Viewers)

whamby

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#1
Nothing looks very exciting through the first week or September... no chance of any kind of tropical activity in the SE. Southern Plains and Texas look to go 'last hurrah' for heat... everyone else normal, but not BN:
 
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#4
The JMA, EPS, and CFS are all sniffing out a major regime change in the Atlantic during the 2nd half of September that would favor more tropical cyclone activity, so don't let your guard down just yet. I've noticed that -AMO seasons like this tend to peak later than normal, and this may be because the EP is more active in these years and thus it's harder for the Atlantic to generate storms closer to the East Pacific's climatological peak that comes in late August.


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pcbjr

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#5
The JMA, EPS, and CFS are all sniffing out a major regime change in the Atlantic during the 2nd half of September that would favor more tropical cyclone activity, so don't let your guard down just yet. I've noticed that -AMO seasons like this tend to peak later than normal, and this may be because the EP is more active in these years and thus it's harder for the Atlantic to generate storms closer to the East Pacific's climatological peak that comes in late August.


View attachment 5693
There are 9 innings in a game, and 3 batters in the bottom; the 9th month is September and there will be batters in the box ... and another on deck if it goes an extra inning ... Good post Webb; game's nowhere near over in the middle of the 8th ...
 
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SD

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#9
Thankfully I don't think this ridged pattern has the umph to match 2007 where rdu went 101 and 99 in back to back days but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see rdu record a 94-97 type high during the first 10 days of September. I agree with webber about a backing away from ridging as we move through September and I think we could see that starting as early as 9/10 but more likely 9/15. I have some ideas that we could get into a highly amplified pattern in the 2nd half of the month but it's pure speculation.

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#10
Per my local AFD, the ridge that was supposed to break down and allow a front to stall over the Carolinas for next weekend and bring a wetter pattern, is not looking like it’s going to make it here now and the ridge re strengthens! Looks like we could be in for a long hot dry spell, with maybe a scattered storm Wednesday or Thursday and then another long dry stretch of 90s plus!
#ILOVEFALL
 
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#13
Per my local AFD, the ridge that was supposed to break down and allow a front to stall over the Carolinas for next weekend and bring a wetter pattern, is not looking like it’s going to make it here now and the ridge re strengthens! Looks like we could be in for a long hot dry spell, with maybe a scattered storm Wednesday or Thursday and then another long dry stretch of 90s plus!
#ILOVEFALL
You forgot your favorite meme.... the :( icon
 

whamby

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#25
last Sept featured a weirdly cool first half, then a hot second half... Those remnants of Irma passing over me with temps in the mid 50s are hard to forget. Top 10 strange weather events of my life...
 
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#26
Is it on tonight's run too? Haven't checked yet.
I didn't really look at the 18z but yeah it looks pretty good

Oddly it doesn't have much in the Atlantic like the other models though it does quickly form a CV storm by the weekend
 
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whamby

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#27
hmm... nrgjeff, webb, and others predicted this coming to pass and here one global model is picking it up.. I'm beginning to think Asia, MJO and far upstream atmospheric phenomena mean something to North American weather... ;)
 

whamby

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#29
we all talk about analogs for winter storm patterns, etc... but any good analogs for this year's tropical (lack of) season?
 

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