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Pattern September Somnolence

I’d much rather take the above average temps now than later. While I’m ready for some cooler weather, I’d much rather have a cold winter and above average snowfall.
 
Parker said:
I’d much rather take the above average temps now than later. While I’m ready for some cooler weather, I’d much rather have a cold winter and above average snowfall.
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Man, I sure wish it worked like that. This is the worst start to Fall that I can remember. I am utterly SICK of the humidity.
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, I sure wish it worked like that. This is the worst start to Fall that I can remember. I am utterly SICK of the humidity.
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^^^^This! It's as bad as I've ever seen. Been in our house 18 yrs, never had moisture issues until this year..... I just want some dry weather, low humidity please
 
ATLwxfan said:
One model run does not a forecast make. Especially when we’ve clearly seen a shift in the ridge with multiple models. We may not go from 95 to 65 for high temps but 79 will feel darn good in ATL.


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I hope you're right, but I'm not going to expect anything until I see it under 200 hours from the Euro. This ridge is the strongest at this time of year I can remember in my 37 years of lifetime.

The average temps here for today are 82/58, pretty crazy to think about.
 
Larry,
You wanna join me in a loud "Dadgumit"? SD and Brick and RC can echo in, as well ...

814temp.new.gif
 
GaWx said:
KATL in 2018:
- May-Aug: 0 days 94-95
- Sep: 4 days 94-95
————————————
Gainesville, FL, from Jax NWS:

“GAINESVILLE HAS NOW EXPERIENCED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 95
DEGREES FOR 8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, WHICH HAS ONLY OCCURRED ONE OTHER
TIME DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER (SEPT 18-25, 1925) SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1890. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF THE MONTH
HAVE BEEN THE HOTTEST BEGINNING TO SEPTEMBER AT ALMA, ST. SIMONS
ISLAND AND GAINESVILLE...AND THE SECOND HOTTEST AT JACKSONVILLE.”
————————————

Thankfully we have E flow today to end this nonsense at both locations!
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Larry,
Just waiting for the1st sub-75º degree day ... as likely you are ... ;)
Turkey probably will be out of the oven ... :confused:
Best!
Phil
 
As a whole the location and orientation of the western ridge along with the amount if undercutting energy will go a long way toward how cool we can get. I still like the idea of getting drier air into the SE but getting a strong fall cold front might be a little more difficult. The setup also favors a wedge scenario by the first of the month

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18z shows no pattern change through the entire duration. Patterns like this create epic droughts and record warmth. Atlanta's warmest September averaged 83F, the second was 80F. The current average is 81.5, and have somehow recorded an inch of rain.
 
Kylo said:
Going to be a long winter. The pattern is changing across the conus, yes we will and usually have to battle a SER. Seasonal temps in October will be awesome, if that's what results. Looks what the past few weeks have been like, just brutal. What's coming looks a whole lot better.

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You need just enough SE ridge, to keep CHS and WIL from getting all our snow! I think CAD events will be plentiful this winter, and ice storms will be the rule, kind of like what Rain_Cold has at his house these last few winters!:D
 
Tarheel1 said:
You need just enough SE ridge, to keep CHS and WIL from getting all our snow! I think CAD events will be plentiful this winter, and ice storms will be the rule, kind of like what Rain_Cold has at his house these last few winters!:D
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I think we are all over due for a crippling ice storm, we are due here in ATL. I love ice storms just without the ice part. The sound of the frozen trees swaying in the wind is amazing.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I think we are all over due for a crippling ice storm, we are due here in ATL. I love ice storms just without the ice part. The sound of the frozen trees swaying in the wind is amazing.
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But the sound of power blowing all over the county isn't. I unfortunately agree about the overdue part. All it takes is a high in the right place and a low moving in and we have one. Oh and Glenn Burns saying it'll all be gone by noon. That secures events all the time! :confused:
 
ForsythSnow said:
But the sound of power blowing all over the county isn't. I unfortunately agree about the overdue part. All it takes is a high in the right place and a low moving in and we have one. Oh and Glenn Burns saying it'll all be gone by noon. That secures events all the time! :confused:
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Don’t forget about Kirk Mellish! You can add him to the needs to retire list.
 
I can't even talk about hypothetical ice storms when there won't be a single low temperature below 65 in September.
 
We haven’t had highs in the low 80’s and lows in the mid 60’s yet so I’m fine with starting there. Baby steps.


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cd2play said:
You're not getting the fear that all 31 days in October will be above normal too, are you?
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I expect it at this point. It seems at any give time, roughly 70% of the northern hemisphere is above average, so our chances being below average are much less.
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, I sure wish it worked like that. This is the worst start to Fall that I can remember. I am utterly SICK of the humidity.
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Rain Cold said:
Man, I sure wish it worked like that. This is the worst start to Fall that I can remember. I am utterly SICK of the humidity.
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Two years ago it was hot into Nov with a drought when I lived in Alabama. This is not like that pattern for sure.
 
Wonder when the last time Raleigh had a September that didn’t have a day with a low in the 50’s. I went back and looked and hasn’t happened past 10 years. Going to be close the last few days of September whether we break 60F for a low.
 
Kylo said:
Wonder when the last time Raleigh had a September that didn’t have a day with a low in the 50’s. I went back and looked and hasn’t happened past 10 years. Going to be close the last few days of September whether we break 60F for a low.
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Went back to 86 and none.

Does anyone know where you can download a csv file of daily weather data?

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The 12z GFS is incredible. Seriously a very strong SE ridge wall to wall with no look of ending even at the end of the run.
 
Arcc said:
The 12z GFS is incredible. Seriously a very strong SE ridge wall to wall with no look of ending even at the end of the run.
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The good news is, this winter we're not going to have to worry about the warm nose or 33-34 and rain. It's going to be in the 80s all winter. :(
 
1300m said:
GEFS just continues to trend stronger at H5 with the SER and warmer with surface temps.

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"Like" for the info, not the outcome ... ;)
Made a conscious decision not to incite board-wide cliff-jumping so am avoiding posting much now (can't even find a third-tier model with anything pretty) ... :eek:
 
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cd2play said:
The good news is, this winter we're not going to have to worry about the warm nose or 33-34 and rain. It's going to be in the 80s all winter. :(
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We are just getting it out of the way early this year. We will have snow cover for at least 6 hrs this winter in the SE! BOOK IT!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I want the heat to go away as much as anyone else here but who wants to chase blue anomolies in October...not me...we wait it out and enjoy the pattern change when it counts
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I do for one. I love snow, but I hate summer time temps more. I love working outside in the cooler air and having campfires. Having to work outside through summer is tough, but its frustrating when summer over stays its obligation.
 
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