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Pattern September Somnolence

I don't really think we see a strong frontal passage in our part of the country until the 2nd week of October which is about 20 days
 
Hang Tight: Its almost here! Want be long and this is what we will all be waking up to.

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Here is the 32 day 2mT on the EURO. This pretty much encompasses the entire board except for Brent. Oh, and the 46 day doesn't look any better
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MichaelJ said:
Here is the 32 day 2mT on the EURO. This pretty much encompasses the entire board except for Brent
View attachment 6484
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That was issued 2 days ago, and though it is still relatively new in terms of weeklies, it was when the Euro had a warmer idea for when the other models have the front. Since then, the Euro seems to have come into agreement with the other models. In addition, keep in mind that it's an anomaly map covering all 32 days. We can have this heat now, above average heat, then go to cooler weather for a few days and heat back up and the map could look like that. It's actually frequent we warm up after fronts it seems when they are the first several ones in the fall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That was issued 2 days ago, and though it is still relatively new in terms of weeklies, it was when the Euro had a warmer idea for when the other models have the front. Since then, the Euro seems to have come into agreement with the other models. In addition, keep in mind that it's an anomaly map covering all 32 days. We can have this heat now, above average heat, then go to cooler weather for a few days and heat back up and the map could look like that. It's actually frequent we warm up after fronts it seems when they are the first several ones in the fall.
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No doubt we can have a break here or there but nothing for a significant time period. New weeklies come out Thursday and we will see if it has some big changes, hopefully it does
 
Even if pushing into October, and even if just a statistical probability ... smile, smile, smile, hope, hope, hope ... or something ... :oops:


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"poop" word very purposely avoided ... :eek:
 
This is today’s Euro for day 8-13 compared to what the weeklies had on Monday for the same time period. Temps will moderate as we end the month into October, how much they moderate we will see.


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Kylo said:
This is today’s Euro for day 8-13 compared to what the weeklies had on Monday for the same time period. Temps will moderate as we end the month into October, how much they moderate we will see.


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I'd be ok with normal. Averages are really starting to crash. 78/58 days with dew points in the 50s are a winner this time of year

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MichaelJ said:
Here is the 32 day 2mT on the EURO. This pretty much encompasses the entire board except for Brent. Oh, and the 46 day doesn't look any better
View attachment 6484
Click to expand...
Please don’t post January maps until at least December 15. TIA! :D
 
And just like that the models now say that they are sorry they lied and that we can cook longer.

The difference between lasts nights Euro and tonights run at 8 days is staggering.
 
1300m said:
This is why you don't start celebrating Day 10 pattern changes.

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Yep, while we won't see 90 degree temps, it is going to take a while to get out of the above normal temps, probably after mid Oct IMO. The SE ridge is locked in for a while apparently, which also means look out for any TS that form
 
Arcc said:
And just like that the models now say that they are sorry they lied and that we can cook longer.

The difference between lasts nights Euro and tonights run at 8 days is staggering.
Click to expand...

Yup, completely gone. I guess we really can't be all that surprised. This ridge has been so strong it's kept us dry for over a month. I wonder if the models back it even further west keeping the 90s in place.
 
KATL in 2018:
- May-Aug: 0 days 94-95
- Sep: 4 days 94-95
————————————
Gainesville, FL, from Jax NWS:

“GAINESVILLE HAS NOW EXPERIENCED HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 95
DEGREES FOR 8 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, WHICH HAS ONLY OCCURRED ONE OTHER
TIME DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER (SEPT 18-25, 1925) SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1890. OTHERWISE...THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF THE MONTH
HAVE BEEN THE HOTTEST BEGINNING TO SEPTEMBER AT ALMA, ST. SIMONS
ISLAND AND GAINESVILLE...AND THE SECOND HOTTEST AT JACKSONVILLE.”
————————————

Thankfully we have E flow today to end this nonsense at both locations!
 
J.C. said:
Yup, completely gone. I guess we really can't be all that surprised. This ridge has been so strong it's kept us dry for over a month. I wonder if the models back it even further west keeping the 90s in place.
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One model run does not a forecast make. Especially when we’ve clearly seen a shift in the ridge with multiple models. We may not go from 95 to 65 for high temps but 79 will feel darn good in ATL.


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Going to be a long winter. The pattern is changing across the conus, yes we will and usually have to battle a SER. Seasonal temps in October will be awesome, if that's what results. Looks what the past few weeks have been like, just brutal. What's coming looks a whole lot better.

14-km EPS Global undefined undefined 288.png prism_conus_tavg_anom_MTD.png
 
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