• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

September Sizzling Summer Segway

I'm hoping we can at least get some cooldowns into the 50s this September. The last two Septembers have been just an extension of summer.

Even if it stays hot, we can at least have shorter days and have it dark by 7:30 at the end of the month!
 
Nice looking GFS run. Impressive sweeping cold front with a monster SER obliterating hurricane off the Eastern seaboard.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
CADEffect said:
When are we going to put in the new data for the past 10 years?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
May 2021 is probably when the official 1991-2020 climate normals get released . However , you can go to now data and look at the raw 1991-2020 means . Sadly those don’t tell you nothing about what changed because the NCDC does all these adjustments when publishing normals. I have no clue why they do that I have called the ncdc in Asheville , emailed the nws in Raleigh , met with the Mets , and no one could tell me exactly why adjustments are made .
 
Lickwx said:
May 2021 is probably when the official 1991-2020 climate normals get released . However , you can go to now data and look at the raw 1991-2020 means . Sadly those don’t tell you nothing about what changed because the NCDC does all these adjustments when publishing normals. I have no clue why they do that I have called the ncdc in Asheville , emailed the nws in Raleigh , met with the Mets , and no one could tell me exactly why adjustments are made .
Click to expand...

What kind of adjustments? GaWx and I calculated a few months for Atlanta a little while back with the nowdata we have up until this point. Are you saying they manipulate these numbers and wouldn't give a legit reason?
 
J.C. said:
What kind of adjustments? GaWx and I calculated a few months for Atlanta a little while back with the nowdata we have up until this point. Are you saying they manipulate these numbers and wouldn't give a legit reason?
Click to expand...
They have a legit reason I’m sure of it , it’s just I couldn’t gather the exact reasons for the drastic changes . For a lot of stations they actually cooled the 81-10 normals vs the means . I think first period that saw adjustments to raw data was 1971-2000, I’ve looked at previous ones and no adjustments.

Atlanta 81-10 raw data is actually .5 degrees warmer than what was officially published as the normals for 81-10. Raleigh and Greensboro however are .5 degrees warmer for the normals on 81-10 than the raw data .

I’m very confident what you and Gawx calculated won’t be the published normals . It is however the actual raw means . There are some stations that didn’t get adjustments as well but Atlanta is not one of them. If 91-20 is like 81-10 what the published normals will be is actually cooler than the means for Atlanta .


That reminds me ! I should post this cool link from the NCDC that has normals for various stations but calculated in different ways, could give an idea
 
Lickwx said:
They have a legit reason I’m sure of it , it’s just I couldn’t gather the exact reasons for the drastic changes . For a lot of stations they actually cooled the 81-10 normals vs the means . I think first period that saw adjustments to raw data was 1971-2000, I’ve looked at previous ones and no adjustments.

Atlanta 81-10 raw data is actually .5 degrees warmer than what was officially published as the normals for 81-10. Raleigh and Greensboro however are .5 degrees warmer for the normals on 81-10 than the raw data .

I’m very confident what you and Gawx calculated won’t be the published normals . It is however the actual raw means . There are some stations that didn’t get adjustments as well but Atlanta is not one of them. If 91-20 is like 81-10 what the published normals will be is actually cooler than the means for Atlanta .


That reminds me ! I should post this cool link from the NCDC that has normals for various stations but calculated in different ways, could give an idea
Click to expand...

I'll be waiting in earnest to see what they publish now. I wonder if they throw the extremes out of the calculation as to not screw up the standard deviation? That would explain why the numbers end up cooler. If they do, then it isn't an average, more of what they consider to be a "normal". Very interesting though, thanks for the information.
 
gfs_T2m_seus_50.png
Had to, sorry
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top