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September Sizzling Summer Segway

Poimen said:
I can’t recall the last time September didn’t feel like summer around here for practically the whole month. I’m not seeing much hope of change for this year.
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You must have a short memory. Historically September is solidly a fall month with much lower temps than July and August. I have even experienced 30s in September in Georgia.
 
Poimen said:
I can’t recall the last time September didn’t feel like summer around here for practically the whole month. I’m not seeing much hope of change for this year.
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The last Sept that didn't have a 90 at RDU
was 2011. Quite a few have gotten more fall like for the 2nd half of the month but as a whole its hard to find many with substantial periods of sub 80 days particularly in the last 4
 
Will probably face at least a couple of SE hurricane threats over the course of September, given both the pattern and the favorable tropic environment. At least it should be eventful.
 
Obviously we are all hoping for the best for folks I. Laura’s path but I was hoping it would kick start a pattern change. No such luck. Maybe just too early.

I remember as a freshman at Emory in 1997, we had a taste of fall around Labor Day.


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Ah September yes! This month I'll ratchet up my complaining once again because summer won't let go! Took a break in mid August when I gave up on reaching average rainfall. Hopefully I can take another break in October and November until December sets in and we all realize that the ser looks to set in and ruin the winter!
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Ah September yes! This month I'll ratchet up my complaining once again because summer won't let go! Took a break in mid August when I gave up on reaching average rainfall. Hopefully I can take another break in October and November until December sets in and we all realize that the ser looks to set in and ruin winter for life
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Fixed
 
I'm hoping we can at least get some cooldowns into the 50s this September. The last two Septembers have been just an extension of summer.

Even if it stays hot, we can at least have shorter days and have it dark by 7:30 at the end of the month!
 
Nice looking GFS run. Impressive sweeping cold front with a monster SER obliterating hurricane off the Eastern seaboard.


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CADEffect said:
When are we going to put in the new data for the past 10 years?


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May 2021 is probably when the official 1991-2020 climate normals get released . However , you can go to now data and look at the raw 1991-2020 means . Sadly those don’t tell you nothing about what changed because the NCDC does all these adjustments when publishing normals. I have no clue why they do that I have called the ncdc in Asheville , emailed the nws in Raleigh , met with the Mets , and no one could tell me exactly why adjustments are made .
 
Lickwx said:
May 2021 is probably when the official 1991-2020 climate normals get released . However , you can go to now data and look at the raw 1991-2020 means . Sadly those don’t tell you nothing about what changed because the NCDC does all these adjustments when publishing normals. I have no clue why they do that I have called the ncdc in Asheville , emailed the nws in Raleigh , met with the Mets , and no one could tell me exactly why adjustments are made .
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What kind of adjustments? GaWx and I calculated a few months for Atlanta a little while back with the nowdata we have up until this point. Are you saying they manipulate these numbers and wouldn't give a legit reason?
 
J.C. said:
What kind of adjustments? GaWx and I calculated a few months for Atlanta a little while back with the nowdata we have up until this point. Are you saying they manipulate these numbers and wouldn't give a legit reason?
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They have a legit reason I’m sure of it , it’s just I couldn’t gather the exact reasons for the drastic changes . For a lot of stations they actually cooled the 81-10 normals vs the means . I think first period that saw adjustments to raw data was 1971-2000, I’ve looked at previous ones and no adjustments.

Atlanta 81-10 raw data is actually .5 degrees warmer than what was officially published as the normals for 81-10. Raleigh and Greensboro however are .5 degrees warmer for the normals on 81-10 than the raw data .

I’m very confident what you and Gawx calculated won’t be the published normals . It is however the actual raw means . There are some stations that didn’t get adjustments as well but Atlanta is not one of them. If 91-20 is like 81-10 what the published normals will be is actually cooler than the means for Atlanta .


That reminds me ! I should post this cool link from the NCDC that has normals for various stations but calculated in different ways, could give an idea
 
Lickwx said:
They have a legit reason I’m sure of it , it’s just I couldn’t gather the exact reasons for the drastic changes . For a lot of stations they actually cooled the 81-10 normals vs the means . I think first period that saw adjustments to raw data was 1971-2000, I’ve looked at previous ones and no adjustments.

Atlanta 81-10 raw data is actually .5 degrees warmer than what was officially published as the normals for 81-10. Raleigh and Greensboro however are .5 degrees warmer for the normals on 81-10 than the raw data .

I’m very confident what you and Gawx calculated won’t be the published normals . It is however the actual raw means . There are some stations that didn’t get adjustments as well but Atlanta is not one of them. If 91-20 is like 81-10 what the published normals will be is actually cooler than the means for Atlanta .


That reminds me ! I should post this cool link from the NCDC that has normals for various stations but calculated in different ways, could give an idea
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I'll be waiting in earnest to see what they publish now. I wonder if they throw the extremes out of the calculation as to not screw up the standard deviation? That would explain why the numbers end up cooler. If they do, then it isn't an average, more of what they consider to be a "normal". Very interesting though, thanks for the information.
 
gfs_T2m_seus_50.png
Had to, sorry
 
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