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September Sizzling Summer Segway

Meanwhile, the end of the 12Z GEFS looks worrisome if you don’t want a possible TC landfall threat on the east coast:

H5 looks scary as ridging rebuilds from the Atlantic:07776A0B-0F5E-4881-B091-B4B4B7AA6150.png

At the same time, there is a good bit of activity lurking just offshore that wouldn’t necessarily recurve safely if H5 were to be close to the map above:

640FA5D9-BE1D-4DD1-AA68-C1C23D901F09.png

Edit: those 2 TCs just offshore E coast are then moving NW. And then look at the 2 over FL. @pcbjr would be at risk from those, unfortunately.

Edited for stupid auto fill putting “lol” instead of “look” ?‍♀️?‍♂️
 
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12z Euro says what cold? Come on Mack, we need your positive thoughts stat! We need you to fight back against SER/DD, La Nina/+AMO!

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Anyone living in a state bordering the Atlantic Ocean I’m sorry to say that any cool downs would likely be short lived and not particularly potent . There is too much seasonal lag as sea temps are just now peaking , so it’s going to be hard to shake any west Atlantic ridging. It’s lag time baby. Now for peeps west of the mountains I think things are looking pretty decent for a substantial cool down all the way down to the gulf coast .

Don’t worry though east coast peeps , my magical October is coming soon ! Bright side for those people aching for a cool down is cold shot or not September is almost guaranteed to be colder by a decent amount ( less true for Deep South and coastal folks due to lag) than July and August .
 
Shear is picking up a little bit, might chase a storm outa boredom, and this one looks like the one I wanna drive to 2D310728-A6B1-4AF3-ACB2-7305833EB020.png
 
A chilly Happy Hour GFS fwiw all thanks, of course, to Mack and brought to us by 2020 with record lows in the upper 40s and maybe also coldest so early in the season being portrayed for Birm, Chat, and possibly ATL for both 9/10 and 9/11!! So, 2020 isn't all bad.
It also has a low of 40 at O'Hare on 9/8, which would be the earliest 40 on record by 5 days!

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GaWx said:
A chilly Happy Hour GFS fwiw all thanks, of course, to Mack and brought to us by 2020 with record lows in the upper 40s and maybe also coldest so early in the season being portrayed for Birm, Chat, and possibly ATL for both 9/10 and 9/11!!

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Too bad it's 300 hrs out! A week from now it'll still be 300 hrs out!
 
Unfortunately reality bites. The SER flexing her muscles on this mornings GFS. An outside shot at some CAD to cool down the afternoons but overnights stay summery through the run. Though the upper south and western areas of our region may get some cooler air. To be fair, this is what one should expect.


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ATLwxfan said:
Unfortunately reality bites. The SER flexing her muscles on this mornings GFS. An outside shot at some CAD to cool down the afternoons but overnights stay summery through the run. Though the upper south and western areas of our region may get some cooler air. To be fair, this is what one should expect.


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Yes, a gradual cooling as the season progresses. Don’t worry you will have your pumpkin spice latte soon.


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One important thing to keep in mind is that if we can get a trough in the east, we can for the most part keep hurricanes away from the US, or at least sustain recurve just off the coast. From this, we could also end up seeing very cool temperatures. On the other hand, if we see a situation like the 00z and a ridge building up over the NE, that would limit any trough from making its way into the east coast and could spell trouble for the SE. Luckily models have been leaning to more troughing which would basically be a win-win, although it is 2020, so who knows.
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Ollie Williams said:
One important thing to keep in mind is that if we can get a trough in the east, we can for the most part keep hurricanes away from the US, or at least sustain recurve just off the coast. From this, we could also end up seeing very cool temperatures. On the other hand, if we see a situation like the 00z and a ridge building up over the NE, that would limit any trough from making its way into the east coast and could spell trouble for the SE. Luckily models have been leaning to more troughing which would basically be a win-win, although it is 2020, so who knows.
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Lets hope the GFS is correct. It would have the cool spell starting at day 7. Canadian also shows a brief day seven cool down, but quickly warms back up (to day 10). **waiting on the euro...
 
RAH is thinking the cool down may happen as well:

<Last paragraph of afternoon discussion>
A cold front looks to move through our area late Friday or early
Saturday, which should result in an increased chance of showers and
storms. The front may stall near our SE zones on Saturday, so have
the warmest temperatures and highest POPs here, decreasing to the
north. With Canadian high pressure building into the northern US, a
taste of autumn with lower dew points and below-normal temperatures
is possible by next weekend, but this will depend on how far south
the front is able to get.
 
SETNwx said:
slowly moving into the 10 day window... I'll even take 5-10 degrees warmer. Mid 40s on the 10th of Sept would be extremely rare territory anyway:
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How rare would 46s be on 9/10 at Chat and Birm? They'd both not only would be record lows for the date. They'd also be coldest for so early in the season with records going back to the late 1800s. It would be an even more notable feat considering global warming. It definitely has my attention.
 
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GaWx said:
How rare would 46s be on 9/10 at Chat and Birm? They'd both not only would be record lows for the date. They'd also be coldest for so early in the season. It would be an even more notable feat considering global warming. It definitely has my attention.
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Yeah, I noticed that when I went to look at the records...
 
The cold push is impressive but seems to die a bit just as it gets to North Georgia. (Per GFS)


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