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Pattern Scorchtember

SouthATLwx said:
Or May for that matter (how soon we forget, it was also the warmest on record).

If nothing else, we can certainly say this has been a long Summer, with a growing season that started way back in February.
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May and September are summer months in the south IMO. I would even consider April and October summer months in FL.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
May and September are summer months in the south IMO. I would even consider April and October summer months in FL.
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If they weren't traditionally, they are now.

I suspect the new 30-year averages to be released will reflect that, as this decade in general has been a torch.
 
pcbjr said:
They tend to work in roughly 20 year cycles ... give or take ...
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What's really crazy though is this persistent pattern of above average temps is occurring at a time of supposed Solar Minimum...

https://www.climatedepot.com/2019/0...inimum-may-be-the-weakest-cycle-in-200-years/

SIDC+DailySunspotNumberSince1977.png
 
The Happy Hour GFS has 95 at KATL on 10/3! Are we going to need a Hotober thread? Gosh, I hope not!

Meanwhile, I’m doing my walk outside for the first time in months! It’s actually halfway pleasant and it has been so much better the last couple of days than it had been for several months!
 
GaWx said:
The Happy Hour GFS has 95 at KATL on 10/3! Are we going to need a Hotober thread? Gosh, I hope not!

Meanwhile, I’m doing my walk outside for the first time in months! It’s actually halfway pleasant and it has been so much better the last couple of days than it had been for several months!
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We should name it octane October ... lol
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Speaking of severe weather, when the ridge does crash, it’s obviously gonna take a trough to dig and do so, and a strong one at that, which obviously means high shear parameters, just instability is the question with fall setups, only takes 200>JKG as we’ve seen a lot of HSLC events in fall in the past, but this is something that is just a possibility and something the models aren’t even picking up
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There have been some memorable squall lines in my neck of the woods at least in Nov, and there is a bit of a tornado peak in the SE in Nov...NC has had several large killer Nov tornados over the years.....and the longest tracked tornado ( 160 miles ) was Nov 22 1992.
 
Downeastnc said:
There have been some memorable squall lines in my neck of the woods at least in Nov, and there is a bit of a tornado peak in the SE in Nov...NC has had several large killer Nov tornados over the years.....and the longest tracked tornado ( 160 miles ) was Nov 22 1992.
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I think NC leads the nation in tornado deaths in November, too. For some reason it seems to happen the week of Thanksgiving.
 
You would think with all these TC that the ridge will break at some point.
 
Brent said:
I swear I keep looking for change and October is next week and still waiting...

just think of all the record highs though :rolleyes:
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By the looks of things it may be October 15th or so before anything near normal or below.


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SWVAwxfan said:
Didn't Raleigh NC have a killer nighttime tornado back in Nov 1988? Ok. It was indeed on Nov 28th, 1988. NC is notorious for nocturnal tornadoes.
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Notorious for wedge front setup tornadoes at night, especially where SRH is maxed out and 100-500 jkg of CAPE manage to sneak in, 1 example is March 2012
 
You would need a very powerful hurricane coming out of the Gulf to smack that ridge in its backside. Only other hope is a very powerful continental storm system with a strong, digging troft to knock it out of the way.
 
Barring a surprise shift in the outlook for the next 7 days, we here at GSP will finish the month of September with 28/30 days with an above average high temperature.
 
A dry spell is what the doctor ordered for Wilkes after running 10” above normal year to date. That rain was miserable for months. Lots of damage across western NC.
 
Looks like we have some low end rain chances around tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. Don't sleep on the wedge potential late Sunday through Tuesday either. Models are getting that look of building down a wedge with the SE ridge trying to pump ahead of a front.

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SD said:
Looks like we have some low end rain chances around tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. Don't sleep on the wedge potential late Sunday through Tuesday either. Models are getting that look of building down a wedge with the SE ridge trying to pump ahead of a front.

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Yeah, in my area, RPM model looks legit Thursday, but not much any other day
 
Today's high was 94*F here and 92*F at ATL.

FFC shared an interesting fact this morning. As of yesterdat, ATL has seen 82 days of 90*F+ temps (putting it in the top 5 highest number ever in a calendar year).

The highest number ever is 90 days of 90*F+ temps in a calendar year, which seems to be a lock to get broken.
 
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