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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

Serious rain here. With another couple hours to go, going to have some flood issues here for sure.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Looks like the lower half of Wake County is in the level 3 threat now. Keeps moving north. How are we going to get any storms with all this rain this morning, though? Wouldn't that limit instability?
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You don't need that much instability when you have as much forcing, ascent, shear as we have. If we inch up into the 65-70 range with dew points close by that should be more than enough
 
Tornado warning and my pool is only an inch and a half from cresting already. I'll have to find a dry slot to drain it.
 
Wow HRRR helicity tracks over GSO

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Heaviest rain has been confined to the western upstate so far. It has been dry here for over an hour
 
SD said:
You don't need that much instability when you have as much forcing, ascent, shear as we have. If we inch up into the 65-70 range with dew points close by that should be more than enough
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I guess it depends on how long this rain lasts. It's pouring at my office again. Maybe we'll get lucky and it will be enough to keep the threat limited later on .
 
Not liking this lull that we are in, at least here in the Southern Piedmont. It's going to help the atmosphere further destabilize. It's not going to take much.
 
ryan1234 said:
Not liking this lull that we are in, at least here in the Southern Piedmont. It's going to help the atmosphere further destabilize. It's not going to take much.
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SD said:
I've already inched up to 61/61 at the house
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That is what I am worried about, too, a lull in the rain to allow things to warm up more and become more unstable. It's 61 here at my office in north Raleigh, too.
 
Forecast has it getting up to 71 this afternoon, too, and WRAL is saying the storms should arrive in the Triangle between 5 and 8.
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Brick Tamland said:
That is what I am worried about, too, a lull in the rain to allow things to warm up more and become more unstable. It's 61 here at my office in north Raleigh, too.
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I wouldn't be at all surprised to see clouds start thinning over the next hour and maybe some breaks of sun in the early afternoon. If we start to get mixing we might scour this cloud deck out pretty well and really warm temps today.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see clouds start thinning over the next hour and maybe some breaks of sun in the early afternoon. If we start to get mixing we might scour this cloud deck out pretty well and really warm temps today.
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Agree 100%. Looks like they are already thinning out to my south, according to satellite. Edit: Schools in my area are dismissing early. I'm guessing for the flood threat but also the increasing tornado threat.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see clouds start thinning over the next hour and maybe some breaks of sun in the early afternoon. If we start to get mixing we might scour this cloud deck out pretty well and really warm temps today.
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Looking at the hourly forecast, it appears to show some clearing between 11 and 3.
 
Portions of Lincoln, Cleveland, Gaston counties all under tornado warning in NC as well
 
Mesoscale discussion coming out looks like a watch will be coming for SC into the Charlotte area.
 
in Iredell now watching tornado warning to my southwest. 46 degrees back home. the only two tornadoes I’ve seen had temps 50 to 54 degrees.
 
Here it is.

mcd0089.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020

Areas affected...northeast Georgia...western South Carolina and
central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 061450Z - 061545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes is
expected to increase this morning and persist into the afternoon
over a portion of the Carolinas. A tornado watch will be needed
soon.

DISCUSSION...The low-level jet will continue to strengthen to in
excess of 60 kt, supporting low-level theta-advection and
destabilization of the warm sector downstream from a line of
thunderstorms that currently extends from southwestern NC into
western SC and northeast GA. MLCAPE will likely increase to around
500 J/kg as temperatures and dewpoints slowly rise through the 60s
F. Winds aloft will remain mostly parallel to the convective line,
suggesting a relatively slow eastward advance compared to the rapid
northeast movement of cells or bowing segments within the line. VWP
data already show large low-level hodographs with 0-1 km storm
relative helicity from 300-400 m2/s2. Despite the linear nature of
the storms, isolated tornadoes will be possible with embedded
supercells or meso-vortices. Otherwise damaging wind should remain
the primary threat.
 
I witnessed a 20 degree temperature change on i77 Elkin to i77 Iredell. Mid 40s to Mid 60s.
 
HRRR looks pretty crazy with no all models playing catch-up with the amount of CAPE being generated.
 
New tornado warning NW of Athens. One still going NE of Athens
 
Can't believe there isn't a watch yet for western to central NC.
 
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