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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

The soundings out of that 10% area the SPC is concerning, solid CAPE, but also, backing winds at the sfc, nasty wind profiles 8CD83DD7-206E-44FA-BF75-E88C94B9048F.png
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Don’t find this to be true ... winds could easily mix to the surface with any band of heavy rain .. forecasts gusts of 40-50 mph and even strong winds after the front moves by ... would expect many power outages from these type of winds with the amount of water that’s going to be in the ground
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This. The soil is already drenched. We’re expecting 2-3” of additional rainfall. It won’t take much wind to uproot some trees.
 
Expanded ENH risk for day 2
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wind outlook
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Level 3 getting into NC now, looks around the Charlotte area. The threat for the Triangle looks less right now, but it's supposed to come after 11:00 pm, so it might catch some folks off guard.
 
Arcc said:
I definitely think it could, but dang, those wind profiles across Central AL and GA early are just nasty and quite discrete. Would probably constitute a moderate risk at least.
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I agree
 
I said it before but wouldn’t be surprised if we see a MDT
 
No doubt nasty for us in AL and GA. Would be staring down the barrel of a pretty good tornado outbreak with a better thermodynamics profile.




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NoSnowATL said:
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You can definitely see the stronger storms hug the Gulf coast. GC stealing energy as always. I was waiting to see if it was going to happen and sure looks like it.


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I don't know about that... I always heard that most of the time it has to be more of a squall line to steal moisture and energy. I could be wrong. Plus, it looks that that big area of rain is making its way N. Also, as large scale features move more north, I would imagine we'd see fewer storms over the FL peninsula.
 
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ryan1234 said:
I don't know about that... I always heard that most of the time is it has to be more of a squall line to steal moisture and energy. I could be wrong. Plus, it looks that that big area of rain is making its way N. Also, as large scale features move more north, I would imagine we'd see fewer storms over the FL peninsula.
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No the rain definitely is moving N but the line of storms hugging the coast can steal some of the energy from moving N, it happens with most of the spring and summer time storms too. I feel like the squall lines die out over ATL because of timing and the mountains.
* I will add we also tend to have a CAD during some of the events that cut down on the energy as well.


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Tomorrow looks downright nasty for Charlotte and points south. To make matters worse, these storms seem to approach the area sooner than previously thought. Right at peak heating of the day. If we see any lulls or thinning of the clouds, it's game on.
 
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