I could definitely see the Southern Piedmont dealing with an enhanced tornado threat on Thursday. @deltadog03 mentioned we could see a MDT risk somewhere in the area. That would be pretty rare for February, especially for the Carolina's.
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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
I could definitely see the Southern Piedmont dealing with an enhanced tornado threat on Thursday. @deltadog03 mentioned we could see a MDT risk somewhere in the area. That would be pretty rare for February, especially for the Carolina's.
I agree with Brad P. for once. Almost 180 degree wind change in Wilkesboro vs Mooresville. Below is the dead calm of winter in Caldwell, Wilkes and Surry Counties vs dangerous rotating spring winds to the south. Snapshot below of the depiction. 
Yeah, even more elevated convection in this setup could pose a higher risk of Strong gusty winds from how intense that Warm LLVL jet is
JHS
Member
It will not take much cape at all to get high winds with a squall line Thursday due to the wind field. May not even need lightning for the higher winds to make it down. And if the cape is high enough, things will be even worse. That back door front could be a major problem where ever it is when the line comes through, with an enhanced risk of a tornado or 2 near it. 3-2-2012 comes to mind here when the Charlotte area got a wedge front tornado around 2am with NO warning. That front will tricky too this time because of the wind field. Backdoor fronts usually end up farther south than forecast, but this one may not do it because of the strong southerly winds to the south. My bet is that it'll make to somewhere within 50 miles north or south of the NC/SC border.
Trending colder on some of the short range guidance. Actually so cold there would be winter weather advisories for north-west NC. I’m not ready to say how far south or how fast the backdoor will be its too far out. 
doesn't surprise me that there is a wedge front. As you and others have said, that could also be a bad thing.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Is there a hail threat with this storm for central NC
If there was a hail threat it would be from the initial batch of elevated convection, where there’s solid MUcape/Mid level LR of 6.5+, and strongly sheared mid levels, this looks more confined to western NC/SC tho, and hail threat in general is low from saturation
That a pretty big change. Soundings still look worrisome though Edit discreet cells now that's not good
IMHO If trends continue, wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT, but could def see an ENH
Rain..not tornado outlook
BufordWX
Member
Flash flood watch issued for the Atlanta area for 3-4 inches and isolated areas of 6 inches between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening.
It’s about to get real wet.
It’s about to get real wet.
4 chase opportunities on both sides of i77. 1) Initial early morning mix across the blue ridge of Virginia 2) then head to Charlotte NC for a small window of severe 3) head back home to analyze river flooding 4) continue upstream into Watauga for wrap around snow and river rises there
18z GFS only brings that backdoor front to Danville Virginia. Severe for all of NC.
Can’t say I’m buying sleet/wintry mix until the euro shows it. Huge bust potential on temps for this one and where the severe will setup. Below is some of the crazy short range models that keep trending colder. 
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Just had a chance to look at the Euro, if this had a stronger EML to counteract the warm mid level temps or decently higher surface temps to compensate, it would be really nasty.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Too bad enhanced actually means more of a threat than moderate by definition, but I digress.
I think down this way it could get nasty.
RollTide18
Member
It looks like back this way in Alabama we deal with an isolated severe threat with waves of storms and then as it gets into Georgia it forms into a nasty line of storms, going off the 3km NAM.
Jrips2710
Member
Day 2 Enhanced 
Short range models are starting to pick up on more SBcape/better low level LRs when the main batch of convection moves through, the WRF-ARW is a example of something we don’t want, low topped supercells embedded in the rain sheild in the lower piedmont of NC, and over 300-400 m2s2 of 1KM storm relative helicity along with 200-400 jkg of SBcape, which is enough, and winds near the surface are more from the south vs at 850mb there from the SW, which adds spin 
Classic HSLC severe weather low topped supercell/QLCS sounding with the EL around 400MB, and a skinny cape sounding, but off the charts wind energy
Classic HSLC severe weather low topped supercell/QLCS sounding with the EL around 400MB, and a skinny cape sounding, but off the charts wind energy
NAM has a nasty Low topped QLCS, absolutely insane Amounts of wind shear, but Only shows SBcape from 0-300, this looks like one of those types of HSLC setups where shear is just mainly controlling everything and any CAPE you get is bad, interesting setup for sure 
gawxnative
Member
Well First Tornado Warning in MS Now...
Does the HRRR over estimate CAPE values? I hope so because it’s showing almost 1500 here tomorrow off the 12z run.
Also the NAM gridded (3K NAM)? Showing nasty sounding.
Flash flood watch expanded into the upstate and expanded to more of western NC
from GSP
from GSP
NAM is very impressive with the squall line moving through tomorrow. Very well organized and should pose a decent wind threat.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Good luck to the SC and GA folks. Hope it isn't too bad for you.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Finally felt like looking into this, still am actually if my computer will let me, that squall line tomorrow definitely looks nasty on the reflectivity. Highest potential impact looks like south Georgia and parts of north Florida.
I definitely think it could, but dang, those wind profiles across Central AL and GA early are just nasty and quite discrete. Would probably constitute a moderate risk at least.
For the majority, winds will stay elevated and not hit the surface except maybe in a squall line for 10 seconds. But, everyone should see the clouds moving quickly overhead with higher winds aloft. I don’t expect widespread power outages at this time. Mostly heavy rain and some discrete storms that could rotate.
RollTide18
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Tornado watch probably coming out soon for LA and MS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020
Areas affected...southwest through central Louisiana...southwest
through central Mississippi and extreme western Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051628Z - 051800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
intensity and organization initially from southwest through central
Louisiana, and eventually into southwest through central Mississippi
into the afternoon. Supercells and bowing segments posing a risk for
damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threats. Trends
are being monitored for a tornado watch.
DISCUSSION...A stationary front extends from northwest AL to a weak
surface low in northern LA where it becomes a cold front and
continuing into southeast TX. Forcing for ascent within the exit
region of an upper jet rounding the base of an upper trough is
beginning to overtake the western part of the warm sector across
southwest through central LA. This is manifested by a recent
increase in thunderstorms along and behind the front southwest LA
through eastern TX. The southerly low-level jet will also respond
and become coupled with the exit upper jet region, and is forecast
to increase to 50+ kt this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB data from Lake
Charles already showed moderate instability with 2500 J/kg MUCAPE in
warm sector. Storms should soon become surface based and organize as
supercells as temperatures rise through the low 70s F. The storms
will subsequently spread northeast into MS this afternoon. The
strengthening low and mid-level jets will support 50+ kt effective
bulk shear and 200-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity with largest
hodographs expected east of the northeast migrating surface low.
..Dial/Hart.. 02/05/2020
Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020
Areas affected...southwest through central Louisiana...southwest
through central Mississippi and extreme western Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 051628Z - 051800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
intensity and organization initially from southwest through central
Louisiana, and eventually into southwest through central Mississippi
into the afternoon. Supercells and bowing segments posing a risk for
damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threats. Trends
are being monitored for a tornado watch.
DISCUSSION...A stationary front extends from northwest AL to a weak
surface low in northern LA where it becomes a cold front and
continuing into southeast TX. Forcing for ascent within the exit
region of an upper jet rounding the base of an upper trough is
beginning to overtake the western part of the warm sector across
southwest through central LA. This is manifested by a recent
increase in thunderstorms along and behind the front southwest LA
through eastern TX. The southerly low-level jet will also respond
and become coupled with the exit upper jet region, and is forecast
to increase to 50+ kt this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB data from Lake
Charles already showed moderate instability with 2500 J/kg MUCAPE in
warm sector. Storms should soon become surface based and organize as
supercells as temperatures rise through the low 70s F. The storms
will subsequently spread northeast into MS this afternoon. The
strengthening low and mid-level jets will support 50+ kt effective
bulk shear and 200-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity with largest
hodographs expected east of the northeast migrating surface low.
..Dial/Hart.. 02/05/2020
Don’t find this to be true ... winds could easily mix to the surface with any band of heavy rain .. forecasts gusts of 40-50 mph and even strong winds after the front moves by ... would expect many power outages from these type of winds with the amount of water that’s going to be in the ground
Yeah, looks breezy for sure!
Interesting storm near pisgah AL 
