This sounding I grabbed from the NAM in AL is sure interesting, very skinny CAPE, but a nasty wind profile with winds in the lowest km actually backing 
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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
NoSnowJoe
Member
Flood watch has been issued for parts of North GA mainly north of Atlanta. 3-5 inches of rain are possible between Wednesday morning and Friday morning.
18z RGEM has temperatures soaring into the upper 70s and low 80s in parts of Alabama on Wednesday when the storms come in. I’m not sure how the RGEM typically does with temperatures, but if this happened I don’t think it would be good.
Haven’t seen the 00z NAM yet, but that look screams piedmont meso low QLCS with spinups from backing winds 
00z NAM looks nasty (actually ramped up this run) for around my area.
Flow looks a quite a bit unidirectional until you get close to the surface, and that LVL LR looks unimpressive, but that’s some extreme wind shear through all columns, my goodness
Wanted to cross post this back door cold front. Severe storms colliding with cold air over the northern foothills of NC. If the backdoor can hurry the severe threat will lessen but flooding is still poss. Wintry mix north/east in Virginia. 
Don’t like this setup at all, backdoor front just in time for warm sector convection, they can really make storms spin up
Yep esp just south of here..over all of central NC.
12z NAM is nuts around here. Yes CAPE is low, not bad for cold season tho, but the winds are almost off the chart. Winds nearing 75kt at 850mb and 50kt+ at 925mb. Hell SFC winds showing 20 to 25kt
Backdoor trends are further south to i40 now. 30s poss during the severe weather time frame along the NC border counties. Combined with rain and wind...gonna feel raw in parts of Raleigh/Blacksburg zones while GSP gets strong warm winds. 
Wow, this thing is packing extreme amounts of Wind shear, pretty decent sounding for the NAM around central NC, wind shear is so strong that the hodograph is off the charts, when you have 70mph winds at 1KM, then there’s a problem 
I don’t like that sounding for the fact that 0-3km CAPE is pretty good, this could increase the tornado threat
Interesting, upgrade to Moderate Risk already in the talks from the WPC for NC and VA based on trends. Per Blacksburg, 4-8“+ fell in January across north-west NC. And the rain is moving into western NC already. (For flooding not severe wx)
Based on current radar and forecasts, we have 48 hours of upslope rain prior to the main event occurring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this mornings rainfall through Wednesday night over perform and saturate the ground even more before the severe event occurs. At least no sunshine for a few days will help shunt the instability further east to central NC imo..although that’s very hard to predict as the slightest lull in precip can bring the sun out Thursday.
I could see a MDT from southern AL central and S GA, NFL and up into the Carolinas SE of 85
I am not liking this setup at all. Especially with a possible backdoor cold front on our doorstep. Being SE of 85 and being a border county puts me in what could be the epicenter of a sig svr weather outbreak. The only saving grace could be the lack of CAPE. Both the GFS and Euro have backed off a bit. The NAM however, still looks impressive.
I’m considering chasing Thursday since I’m off work. As of now, I’m looking at Mooresville NC and will consider chasing anything that comes near the city of Charlotte. A lot of things can change before then but IMO I’m seeing the tornado risk being lowered across NC but better near Charlotte and South Carolina.