I could definitely see the Southern Piedmont dealing with an enhanced tornado threat on Thursday. @deltadog03 mentioned we could see a MDT risk somewhere in the area. That would be pretty rare for February, especially for the Carolina's.
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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
I could definitely see the Southern Piedmont dealing with an enhanced tornado threat on Thursday. @deltadog03 mentioned we could see a MDT risk somewhere in the area. That would be pretty rare for February, especially for the Carolina's.
I agree with Brad P. for once. Almost 180 degree wind change in Wilkesboro vs Mooresville. Below is the dead calm of winter in Caldwell, Wilkes and Surry Counties vs dangerous rotating spring winds to the south. Snapshot below of the depiction. 
Yeah, even more elevated convection in this setup could pose a higher risk of Strong gusty winds from how intense that Warm LLVL jet is
JHS
Member
It will not take much cape at all to get high winds with a squall line Thursday due to the wind field. May not even need lightning for the higher winds to make it down. And if the cape is high enough, things will be even worse. That back door front could be a major problem where ever it is when the line comes through, with an enhanced risk of a tornado or 2 near it. 3-2-2012 comes to mind here when the Charlotte area got a wedge front tornado around 2am with NO warning. That front will tricky too this time because of the wind field. Backdoor fronts usually end up farther south than forecast, but this one may not do it because of the strong southerly winds to the south. My bet is that it'll make to somewhere within 50 miles north or south of the NC/SC border.
Trending colder on some of the short range guidance. Actually so cold there would be winter weather advisories for north-west NC. I’m not ready to say how far south or how fast the backdoor will be its too far out. 
doesn't surprise me that there is a wedge front. As you and others have said, that could also be a bad thing.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Is there a hail threat with this storm for central NC
If there was a hail threat it would be from the initial batch of elevated convection, where there’s solid MUcape/Mid level LR of 6.5+, and strongly sheared mid levels, this looks more confined to western NC/SC tho, and hail threat in general is low from saturation
That a pretty big change. Soundings still look worrisome though Edit discreet cells now that's not good
IMHO If trends continue, wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT, but could def see an ENH
Rain..not tornado outlook
Flash flood watch issued for the Atlanta area for 3-4 inches and isolated areas of 6 inches between Wednesday evening and Thursday evening.
It’s about to get real wet.
It’s about to get real wet.
4 chase opportunities on both sides of i77. 1) Initial early morning mix across the blue ridge of Virginia 2) then head to Charlotte NC for a small window of severe 3) head back home to analyze river flooding 4) continue upstream into Watauga for wrap around snow and river rises there
18z GFS only brings that backdoor front to Danville Virginia. Severe for all of NC.
Can’t say I’m buying sleet/wintry mix until the euro shows it. Huge bust potential on temps for this one and where the severe will setup. Below is some of the crazy short range models that keep trending colder. 
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Just had a chance to look at the Euro, if this had a stronger EML to counteract the warm mid level temps or decently higher surface temps to compensate, it would be really nasty.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Too bad enhanced actually means more of a threat than moderate by definition, but I digress.