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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

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Spc is continuing to advertise a threat for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
The medium-range models move an upper-level trough across the Four
Corners region on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains
established from the southern Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. A moist airmass should be in place in the lower Mississippi
Valley where scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
Tuesday. A severe threat may develop across parts of the Arklatex
where instability and shear are forecast to be favorable for wind
damage and hail. The chance for thunderstorm development is forecast
to continue from Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Southeast
as the upper-level trough moves into the central states. Strong
deep-layer shear and moderate instability in the central Gulf Coast
region could be sufficient for squall-line development as a cold
front moves from west to east across the region. The front is
forecast to reach the eastern Gulf Coast States on Thursday with a
moist and unstable airmass in place ahead of the front. This
combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with a broad
mid-level jet, should be sufficient for a continued severe threat
during the day on Thursday. Wind damage and hail will be possible
from central and northern Florida northward into the Carolinas.

day4prob.gif day5prob (1).gif day6prob (1).gif
 

ryan1234

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You can definitely get some nasty storms in February. Remember the Feb 2008 outbreak? It's pretty rare for the SPC to issue day 5 and 6 svr weather outlooks. And it's right over my area. This system could mean business.
 

Arcc

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Wind profiles and lower forcing is screaming supercells and tornadoes, so the ceiling is much higher and it is much more dangerous than the system a few weeks ago. The factors against this being a big issue are there though. The big positive tilt trough will just pump in moisture which is both good and bad. For one the lack of forcing will reduce junk convection, but on the flip side pump in higher mid level temps possibly creating a cap that will not be broken. Definitely should be watched.
 

Myfrotho704_

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Wind profiles and lower forcing is screaming supercells and tornadoes, so the ceiling is much higher and it is much more dangerous than the system a few weeks ago. The factors against this being a big issue are there though. The big positive tilt trough will just pump in moisture which is both good and bad. For one the lack of forcing will reduce junk convection, but on the flip side pump in higher mid level temps possibly creating a cap that will not be broken. Definitely should be watched.
Yeah been seeing EML advection with this one
 

Myfrotho704_

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This sounding ain’t no joke if you break the cap, note this is from a old run, much less unidirectional flow vs are last event 50D59495-5C34-4AB2-8ACD-6FF8F2C78413.png
 

Arcc

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This sounding ain’t no joke if you break the cap, note this is from a old run, much less unidirectional flow vs are last event View attachment 32900
Yeah, the wind fields on the Euro are ominous. That said, in the little I've looked at suggests it may be hard to break that cap. In fact could be one of those events where if we get something big, it happens early before the warm mid level temps shut it off.
 

Myfrotho704_

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This sounding I grabbed from the NAM in AL is sure interesting, very skinny CAPE, but a nasty wind profile with winds in the lowest km actually backing E4E4A904-6E91-4635-A5B2-4C86C6AA5F3E.png
 

BufordWX

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18z RGEM has temperatures soaring into the upper 70s and low 80s in parts of Alabama on Wednesday when the storms come in. I’m not sure how the RGEM typically does with temperatures, but if this happened I don’t think it would be good. 8F5C31FD-755C-4DBE-8CEE-A6A4309244E9.png C8AE69AD-9E4C-4834-8296-22D9663D897B.gif
 

BirdManDoomW

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Wanted to cross post this back door cold front. Severe storms colliding with cold air over the northern foothills of NC. If the backdoor can hurry the severe threat will lessen but flooding is still poss. Wintry mix north/east in Virginia. C8355552-1D2F-4E07-9659-4D796C65861F.jpeg
 
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