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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

This sounding I grabbed from the NAM in AL is sure interesting, very skinny CAPE, but a nasty wind profile with winds in the lowest km actually backing E4E4A904-6E91-4635-A5B2-4C86C6AA5F3E.png
 
18z RGEM has temperatures soaring into the upper 70s and low 80s in parts of Alabama on Wednesday when the storms come in. I’m not sure how the RGEM typically does with temperatures, but if this happened I don’t think it would be good.8F5C31FD-755C-4DBE-8CEE-A6A4309244E9.pngC8AE69AD-9E4C-4834-8296-22D9663D897B.gif
 
Wanted to cross post this back door cold front. Severe storms colliding with cold air over the northern foothills of NC. If the backdoor can hurry the severe threat will lessen but flooding is still poss. Wintry mix north/east in Virginia. C8355552-1D2F-4E07-9659-4D796C65861F.jpeg
 
12z NAM is nuts around here. Yes CAPE is low, not bad for cold season tho, but the winds are almost off the chart. Winds nearing 75kt at 850mb and 50kt+ at 925mb. Hell SFC winds showing 20 to 25kt
 
Backdoor trends are further south to i40 now. 30s poss during the severe weather time frame along the NC border counties. Combined with rain and wind...gonna feel raw in parts of Raleigh/Blacksburg zones while GSP gets strong warm winds. 469C2C7F-6B49-4251-A363-5345FCF5F60C.jpeg
 
Wow, this thing is packing extreme amounts of Wind shear, pretty decent sounding for the NAM around central NC, wind shear is so strong that the hodograph is off the charts, when you have 70mph winds at 1KM, then there’s a problem 239A0DEE-F56B-44DA-AA8E-6986B7B7A610.png
 
I don’t like that sounding for the fact that 0-3km CAPE is pretty good, this could increase the tornado threat
 
Interesting, upgrade to Moderate Risk already in the talks from the WPC for NC and VA based on trends. Per Blacksburg, 4-8“+ fell in January across north-west NC. And the rain is moving into western NC already. (For flooding not severe wx)
 
Based on current radar and forecasts, we have 48 hours of upslope rain prior to the main event occurring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this mornings rainfall through Wednesday night over perform and saturate the ground even more before the severe event occurs. At least no sunshine for a few days will help shunt the instability further east to central NC imo..although that’s very hard to predict as the slightest lull in precip can bring the sun out Thursday.
 
I am not liking this setup at all. Especially with a possible backdoor cold front on our doorstep. Being SE of 85 and being a border county puts me in what could be the epicenter of a sig svr weather outbreak. The only saving grace could be the lack of CAPE. Both the GFS and Euro have backed off a bit. The NAM however, still looks impressive.
 
I’m considering chasing Thursday since I’m off work. As of now, I’m looking at Mooresville NC and will consider chasing anything that comes near the city of Charlotte. A lot of things can change before then but IMO I’m seeing the tornado risk being lowered across NC but better near Charlotte and South Carolina.
 
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