Darklordsuperstorm
Member
SPC already outlining a threat for days 5-7 This would be Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
gawxnative
Member
Yes models showing multiple systems rotating aroung bottom of the slow moving trough. If it was March-April would be big trouble.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Spc is continuing to advertise a threat for the middle of next week.
DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
The medium-range models move an upper-level trough across the Four
Corners region on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains
established from the southern Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. A moist airmass should be in place in the lower Mississippi
Valley where scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
Tuesday. A severe threat may develop across parts of the Arklatex
where instability and shear are forecast to be favorable for wind
damage and hail. The chance for thunderstorm development is forecast
to continue from Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Southeast
as the upper-level trough moves into the central states. Strong
deep-layer shear and moderate instability in the central Gulf Coast
region could be sufficient for squall-line development as a cold
front moves from west to east across the region. The front is
forecast to reach the eastern Gulf Coast States on Thursday with a
moist and unstable airmass in place ahead of the front. This
combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with a broad
mid-level jet, should be sufficient for a continued severe threat
during the day on Thursday. Wind damage and hail will be possible
from central and northern Florida northward into the Carolinas.
DISCUSSION...
...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6...
The medium-range models move an upper-level trough across the Four
Corners region on Tuesday as southwest mid-level flow remains
established from the southern Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. A moist airmass should be in place in the lower Mississippi
Valley where scattered thunderstorm development will be possible
Tuesday. A severe threat may develop across parts of the Arklatex
where instability and shear are forecast to be favorable for wind
damage and hail. The chance for thunderstorm development is forecast
to continue from Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Southeast
as the upper-level trough moves into the central states. Strong
deep-layer shear and moderate instability in the central Gulf Coast
region could be sufficient for squall-line development as a cold
front moves from west to east across the region. The front is
forecast to reach the eastern Gulf Coast States on Thursday with a
moist and unstable airmass in place ahead of the front. This
combined with strong deep-layer shear associated with a broad
mid-level jet, should be sufficient for a continued severe threat
during the day on Thursday. Wind damage and hail will be possible
from central and northern Florida northward into the Carolinas.
Not often you see SPCs that high on ensembles 
You can definitely get some nasty storms in February. Remember the Feb 2008 outbreak? It's pretty rare for the SPC to issue day 5 and 6 svr weather outlooks. And it's right over my area. This system could mean business.
Wind profiles and lower forcing is screaming supercells and tornadoes, so the ceiling is much higher and it is much more dangerous than the system a few weeks ago. The factors against this being a big issue are there though. The big positive tilt trough will just pump in moisture which is both good and bad. For one the lack of forcing will reduce junk convection, but on the flip side pump in higher mid level temps possibly creating a cap that will not be broken. Definitely should be watched.
Yeah been seeing EML advection with this one
Euro soundings look a bit ominous
farleydawg792
Member
Agreed. Something to look out for, especially since the SPC is already showing it.
For where specifically?
I would say central and southern portions of AL and GA
And into the Carolinas.
tennessee storm
Member
I know all eyes are on the system this weeks, but growing ensemble support of even a stronger system that bears watching during the pre valentines day period...
This sounding ain’t no joke if you break the cap, note this is from a old run, much less unidirectional flow vs are last event 
BHS1975
Member
This is for the RDU area.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah, the wind fields on the Euro are ominous. That said, in the little I've looked at suggests it may be hard to break that cap. In fact could be one of those events where if we get something big, it happens early before the warm mid level temps shut it off.
Shaggy
Member
This is for the RDU area.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sounds like a late night hit for us here in central/eastern NC. Hope people pay attention as we get closer of it still looks rough.
BHS1975
Member
NAM went a bit overboard with these totals. But here's the 24 hour precip totals
This sounding I grabbed from the NAM in AL is sure interesting, very skinny CAPE, but a nasty wind profile with winds in the lowest km actually backing 
NoSnowJoe
Member
BufordWX
Member
Flood watch has been issued for parts of North GA mainly north of Atlanta. 3-5 inches of rain are possible between Wednesday morning and Friday morning.
BufordWX
Member
18z RGEM has temperatures soaring into the upper 70s and low 80s in parts of Alabama on Wednesday when the storms come in. I’m not sure how the RGEM typically does with temperatures, but if this happened I don’t think it would be good.
Haven’t seen the 00z NAM yet, but that look screams piedmont meso low QLCS with spinups from backing winds 
00z NAM looks nasty (actually ramped up this run) for around my area.
Flow looks a quite a bit unidirectional until you get close to the surface, and that LVL LR looks unimpressive, but that’s some extreme wind shear through all columns, my goodness
Wanted to cross post this back door cold front. Severe storms colliding with cold air over the northern foothills of NC. If the backdoor can hurry the severe threat will lessen but flooding is still poss. Wintry mix north/east in Virginia. 
Don’t like this setup at all, backdoor front just in time for warm sector convection, they can really make storms spin up
Yep esp just south of here..over all of central NC.
12z NAM is nuts around here. Yes CAPE is low, not bad for cold season tho, but the winds are almost off the chart. Winds nearing 75kt at 850mb and 50kt+ at 925mb. Hell SFC winds showing 20 to 25kt
Backdoor trends are further south to i40 now. 30s poss during the severe weather time frame along the NC border counties. Combined with rain and wind...gonna feel raw in parts of Raleigh/Blacksburg zones while GSP gets strong warm winds. 
Wow, this thing is packing extreme amounts of Wind shear, pretty decent sounding for the NAM around central NC, wind shear is so strong that the hodograph is off the charts, when you have 70mph winds at 1KM, then there’s a problem 
I don’t like that sounding for the fact that 0-3km CAPE is pretty good, this could increase the tornado threat
Interesting, upgrade to Moderate Risk already in the talks from the WPC for NC and VA based on trends. Per Blacksburg, 4-8“+ fell in January across north-west NC. And the rain is moving into western NC already. (For flooding not severe wx)
Based on current radar and forecasts, we have 48 hours of upslope rain prior to the main event occurring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this mornings rainfall through Wednesday night over perform and saturate the ground even more before the severe event occurs. At least no sunshine for a few days will help shunt the instability further east to central NC imo..although that’s very hard to predict as the slightest lull in precip can bring the sun out Thursday.
I could see a MDT from southern AL central and S GA, NFL and up into the Carolinas SE of 85
I am not liking this setup at all. Especially with a possible backdoor cold front on our doorstep. Being SE of 85 and being a border county puts me in what could be the epicenter of a sig svr weather outbreak. The only saving grace could be the lack of CAPE. Both the GFS and Euro have backed off a bit. The NAM however, still looks impressive.
I’m considering chasing Thursday since I’m off work. As of now, I’m looking at Mooresville NC and will consider chasing anything that comes near the city of Charlotte. A lot of things can change before then but IMO I’m seeing the tornado risk being lowered across NC but better near Charlotte and South Carolina.