Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

[deltadog03]

Just had a chance to look at the Euro, if this had a stronger EML to counteract the warm mid level temps or decently higher surface temps to compensate, it would be really nasty.

I think down this way it could get nasty.

 

[RollTide18]

I think down this way it could get nasty.

It looks like back this way in Alabama we deal with an isolated severe threat with waves of storms and then as it gets into Georgia it forms into a nasty line of storms, going off the 3km NAM.

 

[Jrips2710]

Day 2 Enhanced

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Short range models are starting to pick up on more SBcape/better low level LRs when the main batch of convection moves through, the WRF-ARW is a example of something we don’t want, low topped supercells embedded in the rain sheild in the lower piedmont of NC, and over 300-400 m2s2 of 1KM storm relative helicity along with 200-400 jkg of SBcape, which is enough, and winds near the surface are more from the south vs at 850mb there from the SW, which adds spin Classic HSLC severe weather low topped supercell/QLCS sounding with the EL around 400MB, and a skinny cape sounding, but off the charts wind energy

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM has a nasty Low topped QLCS, absolutely insane Amounts of wind shear, but Only shows SBcape from 0-300, this looks like one of those types of HSLC setups where shear is just mainly controlling everything and any CAPE you get is bad, interesting setup for sure

 

[gawxnative]

Well First Tornado Warning in MS Now...

 

[deltadog03]

Does the HRRR over estimate CAPE values? I hope so because it’s showing almost 1500 here tomorrow off the 12z run.

 

[deltadog03]

Also the NAM gridded (3K NAM)? Showing nasty sounding.

 

[Ethan80963]

Flash flood watch expanded into the upstate and expanded to more of western NC
from GSP

 

[Rain Cold]

NAM is very impressive with the squall line moving through tomorrow. Very well organized and should pose a decent wind threat.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Day 2 Enhanced View attachment 33050

Good luck to the SC and GA folks. Hope it isn't too bad for you.

 

[Metwannabe]

NAM is very impressive with the squall line moving through tomorrow. Very well organized and should pose a decent wind threat.

We know how these maps usually pan out but none the less, looks breezy too...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Finally felt like looking into this, still am actually if my computer will let me, that squall line tomorrow definitely looks nasty on the reflectivity. Highest potential impact looks like south Georgia and parts of north Florida.

 

[Arcc]

I think down this way it could get nasty.

I definitely think it could, but dang, those wind profiles across Central AL and GA early are just nasty and quite discrete. Would probably constitute a moderate risk at least.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

For the majority, winds will stay elevated and not hit the surface except maybe in a squall line for 10 seconds. But, everyone should see the clouds moving quickly overhead with higher winds aloft. I don’t expect widespread power outages at this time. Mostly heavy rain and some discrete storms that could rotate.

 

[RollTide18]

 

[Brick Tamland]

Tornado watch probably coming out soon for LA and MS.

Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

Areas affected...southwest through central Louisiana...southwest
through central Mississippi and extreme western Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 051628Z - 051800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
intensity and organization initially from southwest through central
Louisiana, and eventually into southwest through central Mississippi
into the afternoon. Supercells and bowing segments posing a risk for
damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threats. Trends
are being monitored for a tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...A stationary front extends from northwest AL to a weak
surface low in northern LA where it becomes a cold front and
continuing into southeast TX. Forcing for ascent within the exit
region of an upper jet rounding the base of an upper trough is
beginning to overtake the western part of the warm sector across
southwest through central LA. This is manifested by a recent
increase in thunderstorms along and behind the front southwest LA
through eastern TX. The southerly low-level jet will also respond
and become coupled with the exit upper jet region, and is forecast
to increase to 50+ kt this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB data from Lake
Charles already showed moderate instability with 2500 J/kg MUCAPE in
warm sector. Storms should soon become surface based and organize as
supercells as temperatures rise through the low 70s F. The storms
will subsequently spread northeast into MS this afternoon. The
strengthening low and mid-level jets will support 50+ kt effective
bulk shear and 200-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity with largest
hodographs expected east of the northeast migrating surface low.

..Dial/Hart.. 02/05/2020

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

For the majority, winds will stay elevated and not hit the surface except maybe in a squall line for 10 seconds. But, everyone should see the clouds moving quickly overhead with higher winds aloft. I don’t expect widespread power outages at this time. Mostly heavy rain and some discrete storms that could rotate.

Don’t find this to be true ... winds could easily mix to the surface with any band of heavy rain .. forecasts gusts of 40-50 mph and even strong winds after the front moves by ... would expect many power outages from these type of winds with the amount of water that’s going to be in the ground

 

[Rain Cold]

We know how these maps usually pan out but none the less, looks breezy too...

View attachment 33081

Yeah, looks breezy for sure!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting storm near pisgah AL