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Severe Possible severe weather February 4th-7th

Serious rain here. With another couple hours to go, going to have some flood issues here for sure.
 
Looks like the lower half of Wake County is in the level 3 threat now. Keeps moving north. How are we going to get any storms with all this rain this morning, though? Wouldn't that limit instability?
You don't need that much instability when you have as much forcing, ascent, shear as we have. If we inch up into the 65-70 range with dew points close by that should be more than enough
 
Tornado warning and my pool is only an inch and a half from cresting already. I'll have to find a dry slot to drain it.
 
Wow HRRR helicity tracks over GSO

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Heaviest rain has been confined to the western upstate so far. It has been dry here for over an hour
 
You don't need that much instability when you have as much forcing, ascent, shear as we have. If we inch up into the 65-70 range with dew points close by that should be more than enough

I guess it depends on how long this rain lasts. It's pouring at my office again. Maybe we'll get lucky and it will be enough to keep the threat limited later on .
 
Not liking this lull that we are in, at least here in the Southern Piedmont. It's going to help the atmosphere further destabilize. It's not going to take much.
 
Not liking this lull that we are in, at least here in the Southern Piedmont. It's going to help the atmosphere further destabilize. It's not going to take much.
I've already inched up to 61/61 at the house

That is what I am worried about, too, a lull in the rain to allow things to warm up more and become more unstable. It's 61 here at my office in north Raleigh, too.
 
Forecast has it getting up to 71 this afternoon, too, and WRAL is saying the storms should arrive in the Triangle between 5 and 8.
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That is what I am worried about, too, a lull in the rain to allow things to warm up more and become more unstable. It's 61 here at my office in north Raleigh, too.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see clouds start thinning over the next hour and maybe some breaks of sun in the early afternoon. If we start to get mixing we might scour this cloud deck out pretty well and really warm temps today.
 
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