I'm seeing a trend here lately that due to the current situation where global models are currently struggling because they are lacking critical data from aircraft. Seems like we aren't really able to nail down a threat until it gets 3-4 days out.This event has really escalated quickly it feels like.
Well for all of us guys in west and central GA that talk about how storms always roll through at night, here we go. From early signs it could be the Auburn to Columbus to LaGrange areas in the cross hairs.
It's very strange isn't it ? Why do most events happen at night or morning in GA ?
Perhaps one saving grace with this setup is that there looks to be a lot more drier air aloft.
This is a good thing in that it should help to limit storm coverage, but it could also mean a higher intensity for the storms that do develop.
Basically looks like a dry line setup you see on the Great Plains, those more frequently feature discrete, isolated supercells, and the potential for strong tornadoes increases with said storm mode.
Yeah, this would be the setup to watch for those strong, long-tracked tornadoes and also prolific hailers.
We're pretty fortunate that we may not have a ridiculous amount of CAPE to work w/ given the trough over New England that's pumping cool/stable air into much of the upper south the day before this event in addition to prefrontal convection in the warm advection regime that may suppress the warm front (at least temporarily) further to the south.
Obtaining adequate CAPE appears to be the primary limiting factor w/ this event, even into the afternoon on Thursday, the 3km NAM shows very little, if any MUCAPE in GA & the Carolinas. Later on in the evening & overnight, this could change however. Very curious to see how the environment looks beyond this point on the next few runs of the NAM.
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NAM has overestimated the extent of the WF the last few events. Don’t be surprised if that continues here...
Gotta hand it to BMX on the severe outlook in the last event... the guy that hand drew the map showing the cooler stable event and the worst staying Montgomery south... they got it right... SPC... and I’m not bashing them... but they kept us in a hatched moderate when it clearly wasn’t going to happen. I’m hoping BMX is right again! They do have some top notch forecasters there!!