Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd

[StoneMtnWx]

Seems like there going with a NAM 3kmish/12kmish option, but instead the warm sector is further north, including more surface based instability, don’t know bout that one tho, but I guess you can’t argue with it, since they have done well

Yea sounds like a blend of the two. They mentioned the forecast uncertainty with outflow boundaries and a tornado risk if air mass has not been overturned.

Low-level shear for tornadoes will be most favorable early in the
day across LA/MS/AL, and later in the day across GA and SC near the
warm front. Adding uncertainty to this forecast is potential outflow
boundaries from the early day storms, and questions regarding
airmass recovery in those areas (northern GA and SC). Tornado and
wind risk will largely depend on storm mode. If midday heating
occurs along the dryline, and the air mass has not been overturned,
supercells and tornadoes will be possible. A few strong tornadoes
might occur should sufficient SRH (200-300+ m2/s2) remain prior to
850 mb winds veering. Tornadoes will also be possible along the warm
front into GA/SC, assuming it is not reinforced with too much
outflow. Otherwise, a general upscale growth of storms is expected
for the remainder of the area including FL. Damaging winds are most
likely should the storm mode be linear. Given such large model
variability, large changes in area are possible in later updates.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

really sucks there’s so much uncertainty than normal for a day 2 threat

 

[deltadog03]

I still think Central AL to Central GA might be a MDT risk...Either way, I think that zone has the best intersection of CAPE and Shear.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:

I wonder why the enhanced risk goes almost to the VA border in NC but in GA it barely gets north of Atlanta ?

 

[mbway091]

really sucks there’s so much uncertainty than normal for a day 2 threat

A lot of the local mets put out guidance that contradicts this not too long before the new outlook. I would think there would be a bit more coordination there.

 

[BufordWX]

@Brent

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ECMWF

 

[Dawgdaze22]

Did this threat suddenly increase again?


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[Snowflowxxl]

I don’t think most of GA should even be in an Enhanced risk, so I guess I’ll see if I’m a clown tomorrow. I just don’t see anything worth talking about forming after the morning junk

 

[ryan1234]

ECMWF
View attachment 40136View attachment 40137View attachment 40141View attachment 40142

That looks very cellular as opposed to linear. Not the look you want to see.

 

[Brent]

@BrentView attachment 40138

Watching I've lost count of how many HRRR runs have supercells in the metro around rush hour

 

[ryan1234]

I wonder why the enhanced risk goes almost to the VA border in NC but in GA it barely gets north of Atlanta ?

I would guess it's related to the warm front.

 

[mbway091]

I don’t think most of GA should even be in an Enhanced risk, so I guess I’ll see if I’m a clown tomorrow. I just don’t see anything worth talking about forming after the morning junk

Really getting the feeling that they did this because of the uncertainty, not because of a defined definite risk. It's an enhanced risk, not moderate or high, so I guess they have less to lose if it doesn't verify.

 

[deltadog03]

well, the EURO look (looking at those maps) that is definitely an increase in parameters (at least around here)

 

[ryan1234]

The 3 o'clock forecast discussion for GSP should be interesting, to say the least.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I disagree with SPC. They should have worked with local NWS such as Blacksburg and Raleigh because they would have not agreed for such an outlook. Thankfully there is time for it to be downgraded tomorrow at least.

 

[Shawn]

The SPC did this with the last event that stayed to the South. To be fair, they know what they're doing though... you don't just get to the SPC for you know, getting a basic meteorology degree.

 

[ryan1234]

The SPC did this with the last event that stayed to the South. To be fair, they know what they're doing though... you don't just get to the SPC for you know, getting a basic meteorology degree.

It was a huge jump north though, I don't think I've seen them escalate the threat that quickly. But as you said, they know exactly what they're doing and have done a pretty good job thus far.

 

[ryan1234]

It was a huge jump north though, I don't think I've seen them escalate the threat that quickly. But as you said, they know exactly what they're doing and have done a pretty good job thus far. Which is slightly concerning.

 

[Shawn]

It was a huge jump north though, I don't think I've seen them escalate the threat that quickly. But as you said, they know exactly what they're doing and have done a pretty good job thus far.

Their discussions have all alluded to the uncertainty. I guess better safe than sorry. Reminder, we weather people look at, and hang on each of their words and forecast graphics... the general public doesn't take this stuff nearly as seriously and if they decide to downgrade, it's not going to cause mass hysteria.