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Possible Severe Weather April 22nd-23rd
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
I really think the lack of commercial airplane traffic is making a huge impact on our forecast. I mean less than 2 days ago this system looked like it meant business and a lot of were worried and rightfully so. Tomorrow should be interesting, it's going to be a nowcasting situation to see if that warm sector moves far enough north. Also watching for any added fuel from the Atlantic, at least in this area, as we saw on Easter.
farleydawg792
Member
RAP 15z is still showing afternoon tornadic parameters on soundings across north and central Georgia, but not as high as the 9z run. All options are on the table. Tomorrow will be a nowcast event!
Brent
Member
In other news the HRRR has multiple supercells over Dallas this afternoon
CAMs really don’t show much for northern areas
So this is probably evolving to a central and southern (main focus areas) of AL, MS and GA. (Along with LA AR and TX. But I think there could be some storms that pack a punch in In those areas tomorrow.
I just looked at the NAM again, and while the MCS removes surface based cape, there’s still lots of MUcape advecting in aloft, kinda suprised me how much was advecting in, if these soundings come to fruition some large hail would be possible given the elevated nature of the storms, and the NAM has actually trended back to more convection again, more south you go the more you increase SBcape and a better chance of surface based T-storms 
Sounding near ATL (good thing this is somewhat elevated because if that hodo coincided with better cape in the lower levels, that’s a big ooff, near perfect critical angles)
sounding near CLT 
This is just one possible solution, I’m just breaking it down because the boredom is killing me
Sounding near ATL (good thing this is somewhat elevated because if that hodo coincided with better cape in the lower levels, that’s a big ooff, near perfect critical angles)
sounding near CLT This is just one possible solution, I’m just breaking it down because the boredom is killing me
Only reason the STP was not showing up near Atlanta on the STP maps was Becuase the piss poor low level lapse rates, better hope it stays that way
South AL Wx
Member
The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:
The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:
That’s surprising
Interesting 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The enhanced risk for tomorrow has been expanded into the Carolinas:
Yeah I don't know about this map man. I would say maybe enhanced at the most, but not covering most of Georgia, nearly all of SC, and about half of NC. You could very likely slice off most of the northern 1/3rd part of the enhanced.
Seems like there going with a NAM 3kmish/12kmish option, but instead the warm sector is further north, including more surface based instability, don’t know bout that one tho, but I guess you can’t argue with it, since they have done well
I was ready to write this one off for my area but the SPC is trying to tell me otherwise.
mbway091
Member
Definitely wasn't expecting that. Especially not the 10% hatched probability being expanded so far north.
HREF ?
SPC discussion is mentioning the potential for discrete supercells capable of tornadoes, possibly strong in eastern Alabama and western Georgia.
That's not good. The only saving grace the storms won't be ongoing after midnight, like last time. Of course, that will add to storm development. I spoke too soon writing this one-off, and for that, I apologize.